Time can make fools of us all. Even supercomputers.
Barring some sensational results in the quarter-final second legs this week, there are probably only five teams left who can win this season’s Champions League (Arsenal, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Inter and Bayern Munich). That’s a significant shift from the start of the season when, before a ball was kicked in the new-look format, The Athletic’s Opta-powered projections had Manchester City (25 per cent) and Real Madrid (18 per cent) as the most likely sides to lift the trophy.
How are those projections calculated, you ask. Well, Opta’s win prediction model estimates the probability of each match’s outcome (win, draw or loss) by using a combination of betting market odds and Opta’s team power rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances and the competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.
But not even models can anticipate things such as Rodri’s season-altering injury for City or Declan Rice suddenly discovering he can take direct free kicks like a Brazilian.
If slow and steady really does win the race, then Arsenal’s progression to tournament favourites, per our projections, looks to be well-timed. Here’s how the fortunes of the remaining eight clubs have fluctuated throughout the season.
Arsenal
Arsenal began the Champions League campaign behind Manchester City, Real Madrid and Inter with a six per cent chance of winning the competition for the first time. A 0-0 draw at Atalanta on matchday one, combined with other results, saw Bayer Leverkusen (who beat Feyenoord 4-0) overtake them. The next three weeks brought a 2-0 win over PSG and a 1-0 loss at Inter. Few were thinking of Arsenal as tournament favourites at this point.
But they won their final four league games 13-1 on aggregate to boost their title odds to 17 per cent, tied with Inter and behind only Liverpool (24 per cent) before the playoff round.
PSG’s elimination of Liverpool in the round of 16 and Arsenal’s convincing 3-0 win in Madrid last week mean they are now the (narrow) favourites to win it all, with a 27 per cent chance.
Whisper it quietly, but Arsenal could go all the way (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
It’s been a frustrating, injury-hit season for Mikel Arteta’s side, but after enduring a six-season absence from European football’s leading competition, they could — and should — follow up last season’s quarter-final appearance with their first trip to the semi-finals since 2008-09.
Real Madrid
Despite starting the season as the reigning champions and second favourites in our projections, Real Madrid stuttered and stumbled through the league phase in uncharacteristic fashion after winning 15 of their 18 group stage matches in the previous three seasons.
They needed late heroics to beat Stuttgart on matchday one before losing 1-0 to Lille in France and 3-1 at home to Milan either side of a 5-2 comeback win against Borussia Dortmund.
A chastening 2-0 loss at Liverpool on matchday five reduced Madrid’s title chances to six per cent, with a seven per cent chance of league-phase elimination.
Defeat at Lille is one of several Champions League low points for Real Madrid this season (Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images)
But Carlo Ancelotti’s side beat Atalanta, Red Bull Salzburg, and Brest in their final three matches to make the playoff round, where they thrashed Manchester City 6-3 on aggregate. That boosted their title chances to 11 per cent, behind only Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal and Inter.
But a poor display in north London last week has seen that drop to less than one per cent. There have been Bernabeu turnaround miracles in the past, but Madrid have just a three per cent chance of making it into the last four as it stands.
Barcelona
Barcelona were level with Arsenal with a six per cent chance of winning the title before the season began. A surprise 2-1 loss at Monaco set them back, but a statement win over Bayern on matchday three, combined with comfortable victories against Young Boys (5-0) and Red Star Belgrade (5-2) meant that figure jumped to nine per cent — just ahead of Arsenal’s eight per cent — at the halfway point.
They ended the league phase with three wins and a draw to finish second, but Barcelona’s title chances remained the same before rising to 20 per cent — the best of the teams left in the competition — after their 4-1 aggregate win over Benfica in the round of 16. Despite beating Dortmund 4-0 last week, they are now narrow second-favourites to win the title (26 per cent) behind Arsenal, who they could meet in the final in what would be a repeat of the 2006 edition.
Raphinha and Yamal have Barcelona flying high again (David Ramos/Getty Images)
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund scored 10 goals in their first two Champions League matches this season, prompting early optimism and doubling their title chances to four per cent from two before matchday one. It was false hope, though, as losses to Real Madrid (5-2), Barcelona at home (3-2) and Bologna (2-1) in the next five games saw them fall out of the top eight.
They beat Sporting CP 3-0 in the play-off round but were given just a 38 per cent chance of beating Lille after the first leg of their round-of-16 tie ended 1-1. Even so, they came from behind to win the second leg 2-1 but saw title chances boosted to only one per cent after they drew Barcelona in the quarter-finals (with Bayern Munich or Inter in the semis, were they to progress). A 4-0 first-leg defeat suggests the projection model was spot-on about Dortmund.
Dortmund’s chances of turning over a four-goal deficit are reflected in The Athletic’s projections (David Ramos/Getty Images)
Inter
Having started the competition with an 11 per cent chance of winning it (behind only Real Madrid and Manchester City), the only blemish on Inter’s league phase was a 1-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen on matchday six. They conceded just one goal in eight matches and recorded impressive wins over Arsenal and Monaco, which boosted their title chances to 17 per cent (tied with Arsenal for second) after the league phase was completed.
Feyenoord were a mere formality in the round of 16 and while their last-eight tie with Bayern is the closest on paper at 2-1, Inter have every reason to be confident, with an 85 per cent chance of progression to the last four. Can the 2023 runners-up go one better two years on?
Inter’s late win in Munich has boosted their chances of overall victory (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)
Bayern Munich
Bayern began the league phase with only a four per cent chance of winning the title, tied for sixth overall. That instantly improved (albeit only by one percentage point) after they thrashed Dinamo Zagreb 9-2 on matchday one, the second-highest number of goals in a single Champions League game behind Dortmund’s 8-4 win against Legia Warsaw in 2016.
Defeats to Aston Villa and Barcelona then dropped their chances to three per cent and increased the probability of a league-stage elimination to six per cent.
A run of four wins in their final five matches saw them finish 12th. They required a last-ditch Alphonso Davies winner to get past Celtic in the playoff round but comfortably trounced domestic rivals Leverkusen 5-0 in the round of 16.
Even so, last week’s home loss to Inter has left them with just a two per cent chance of winning the title in Vincent Kompany’s first season in charge.
Can Bayern turn around their tie in San Siro? (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)
Paris Saint-Germain
If Arsenal’s projections have shown steady progress, PSG have experienced a huge surge. Having started the season with a four per cent chance of winning the tournament, they won just one of their first five matches, losing to Arsenal, Atletico Madrid and Bayern while drawing with PSV. That left them with a 42 per cent chance of league-phase elimination and dropped their title chances to two per cent. It looked all but over for Luis Enrique’s side.
But a 4-2 comeback win against Manchester City breathed life into their European season, before a 10-2 aggregate destruction of Brest in the playoffs boosted their title chances to nine per cent. Defeating long-time favourites Liverpool on penalties in the round of 16 more than doubled it to 19 per cent and the 3-1 lead over Villa means they now have a 23 per cent chance of winning the competition for the first time.
If momentum wins you titles, then this season’s Champions League is surely PSG’s to lose.
Momentum is with PSG, but can they maintain it? (Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images)
Aston Villa
Aston Villa have enjoyed their Champions League adventure, which understandably began with a less than one per cent chance of winning the title. They had memorable results against Bayern (1-0), Juventus (0-0), Bologna (2-0), RB Leipzig (3-2) and Celtic (4-2) to finish eighth and avoid the playoff round.
Their chances of winning the title ‘improved’ to one per cent after matchday eight and peaked at three per cent before the quarter-finals got underway. But a 3-1 defeat in Paris has seen that return to less than one per cent, with just a nine per cent chance of even making it into the semis.
(Top photo: Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)
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