USWNT Olympic roster prediction 1.0: How the W Gold Cup, NWSL season impact picks

With the NWSL season underway and the number of days until the Olympics growing smaller, it’s time to start thinking about what the USWNT roster may look like for the first tournament under incoming head coach Emma Hayes. 

The three of us went off to independently pick our 18-player roster as things stand now, in mid-March. When we reconvened to compare notes, it turned out we had all selected the exact same 18 players. It feels like a sign.

It wouldn’t make for terribly compelling reading if we all just patted each other on the back for our great roster-building acumen, though. We’ll give you our list, but also take stock of the player pool at a broader level and figure how locked-in some players seem and who is still refining their cases for inclusion.

Our Olympic squad: 

Goalkeepers (2): Alyssa Naeher (Chicago Red Stars), Casey Murphy (NC Courage)

Defenders (6): Naomi Girma (San Diego Wave), Tierna Davidson (Chicago Red Stars), Emily Fox (Arsenal), Crystal Dunn (Gotham FC), Jenna Nighswonger (Gotham FC), Casey Krueger (Washington Spirit)

Midfielders (5): Rose Lavelle (Gotham FC), Lindsey Horan (Lyon), Sam Coffey (Portland Thorns), Catarina Macario (Chelsea), Emily Sonnett (Gotham FC)

Forwards (5): Sophia Smith (Portland Thorns), Mallory Swanson (Chicago Red Stars), Alex Morgan (SD Wave), Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit), Jaedyn Shaw (SD Wave)

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The hierarchy of importance

S-Tier — Absolutely critical

Naomi Girma, Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle, Emily Fox, Alyssa Naeher

This is the quintet that absolutely needs to be preserved in bubble wrap, ensured a good eight hours of sleep every night, and kept in good spirits between now and the Olympics. There are players in the pool who can do some of what each of these players do, but none who do so with the same high level and consistency on a proven basis. 

Fox, Horan, and Lavelle represent three of the best players in the entirety of the pool regardless of position. The same goes for Girma, who is also similar to Naeher in the sense that nobody has cemented their status as a viable alternative in their position. 

A-Tier — Build the roster around them

Jaedyn Shaw, Sophia Smith, Trinity Rodman, Alex Morgan, Mallory Swanson, Catarina Macario, Sam Coffey, Crystal Dunn, Tierna Davidson

Yeah, have a laugh. That’s half of the 18-player roster in one tier, including the entirety of the squad’s attackers. The distinction from A-Tier and B-Tier (to come) is that these players are still easy selections among the three of us. The thing keeping them from the next level up? There are viable alternatives for each — squad-building doesn’t play favorites.

Although there has been some rotation on the left and at striker, Trinity Rodman is a constant at right wing these days. Sophia Smith is back in form after a breakthrough against Canada. Jaedyn Shaw was the player of the W Gold Cup and is invaluably versatile for a small-squad tournament. Mallory Swanson was the team’s best forward before her injury last year, and Alex Morgan looked reinvented as a veteran line-leader over the past few weeks.

Like Swanson, this ranking puts a lot of trust in Catarina Macario’s injury recovery. She’s already banging in goals for Chelsea, though, and that’ll do as much to sway Hayes as anything she could do for the national team. Crystal Dunn can play either fullback role capably as well as in the midfield, Sam Coffey is steady at shielding the backline and breaking lines with her distribution, and Tierna Davidson finally gave Girma a steady partner in the back. 

B-Tier — Not quite a sure thing

Casey Murphy, Jenna Nighswonger, Casey Krueger, Emily Sonnett

You could consider this the start of the “bubble” candidates where the final inclusions and first snubs are included. That’s part of the reality of building an 18-player squad. 

The fact that all three of us independently agreed on including this specific quintet speaks volumes about the cases they’ve made. Nighswonger, Krueger, and Sonnett benefit from being able to play at least two roles at an international level, and all three have been in good form for club and country over the last 10 months. You need a second goalkeeper, and Murphy has been the preferred alternative to Naeher in recent years. 

It’s just a matter of which areas will need the most depth, and who’s best equipped to do those jobs.

How does the midfield look?

Meg: Horan and Lavelle have been playing together in that midfield for a very long time, and I still don’t always feel like they are a cohesive unit. That said, I don’t think there’s a compelling alternative answer, with Horan and Lavelle both extremely necessary for this team in their own ways, but for all the discussions over the past two-plus years about the midfield of the U.S. team, this is maybe the one we’ve talked about the least.

Jeff: I think this is where Coffey’s showings in the W Gold Cup (and last season for Portland) are illuminating. By the end of the Vlatko Andonovski era, the Horan-Lavelle partnership worked best in front of a dedicated defensive midfielder. Andi Sullivan played every minute of the World Cup, but she feels far from this Olympic roster. Coffey’s decision-making and approach dovetails nicely — not as reliant on keeping the ball at her teammates’ expense, but confident to dribble through a wave of defending. That’s a coherent trio in my book.

The center back depth chart is Girma and…?

Jeff: Twelve months ago, we were expecting it to be the dawn of a Girma-Alana Cook partnership. Fast-forward to the present, and she’s missed this projection altogether. Being entirely bypassed by a stopgap solution in Ertz at the World Cup didn’t make for the best optics, but Ertz’s retirement has opened the door for competition to not just make the depth chart, but to start alongside Girma.

Steph: I think Davidson has stepped up while Alana Cook is injured. Davidson is maybe still finding her feet after her own 2022 ACL tear and a rocky 2023 Chicago Red Stars season, and I think it’s been an arduous journey based on an answer she gave during the Gold Cup about her recovery process. 

“I don’t feel as if that’s now trying to kind of crawl back to where I left off,” she said. “I think that’s now building upon where I was and now growing into a new player.” 

Who are your alternates?

Steph: Aubrey Kingsbury, Alana Cook, Olivia Moultrie, Lynn Williams

I debated including Jaelin Howell on this list, and if I didn’t need to include an emergency third goalkeeper, she would’ve made it. I think this team is still searching for a player who can leave their stamp on the midfield, defensively speaking, and I think Howell can eventually be that player. Cook is obviously important as a center back and defender. Moultrie is someone who’s right on the edge, and depending on how remaining friendlies go, could pick herself right up off of this alternate list and displace someone else. As for Lynn, this one was painful, but with such a limited roster, versatility is queen, and I think looking at the rest of the wide players, they just offer more options. 

Jeff: Jane Campbell, Alana Cook, Olivia Moultrie, Lynn Williams

My closest calls were between Moultrie and Korbin Albert, and Williams and Midge Purce, whose creativity and role flexibility would be especially important given the roster constraints. Albert showed a ton of what makes her such a promising prospect throughout the Gold Cup, but her overcommitment to converging was easily bypassed by Brazil with flick-overs and simple dribbles. She could be a very good option to back Horan up in her “do-a-lil-of-everything” role, but that doesn’t translate to an 18-player squad.

Meg: Aubrey Kingsbury, Alana Cook, Olivia Moultrie, Lynn Williams

Once again, there’s consensus here. It feels impossible for me to leave Lynn Williams off the Olympic roster, especially considering her defensive workrate, but with only five forward spots to bring to France, the depth at the forward position means impossible decisions will have to be made. 

Who benefited from the opening weekend of the NWSL?

Meg: The story of opening weekend might have actually been how form from the Gold Cup carried over for players like Morgan, Smith, and Naeher. Before the CONCACAF tournament, Morgan in particular was once again on the outside looking in, making the roster as an injury replacement for Mia Fishel. Less than a month later, with Morgan providing the sole goal of the Challenge Cup, her WNT spot feels far more secure. Naeher’s form has been outstanding, which continued with a few stellar saves on the road in Utah on Saturday. 

Smith looked isolated from the rest of the team for a lot of Portland’s 5-4 loss at Kansas City. Combined with her lack of touches, it wasn’t an encouraging sign for Smith…until she scored a brace. That performance, in particular her goal in the 43rd minute, was another reminder of how lethal she can be out of nowhere. 

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Sophia Smith’s first NWSL goal of 2024 is a beauty! pic.twitter.com/dj9fSPuso1

— National Women’s Soccer League (@NWSL) March 16, 2024

Jeff: I’d say the fact she bagged a pair of goals in spite of that disconnect is actually a very good sign. When a striker is struggling, many tend to try to do too much — dropping too deep to get on the ball more often even if it’s in far less dangerous areas. The fact that she feasted off of the table scraps she was given was vintage Sophia Smith. That didn’t come through often enough last summer, but since the whole team will be acclimating on the fly in Paris, having Smith in this kind of form is such a boost.

I’ll also give a shoutout to Mallory Swanson, who’s already far enough along in her recovery that she started Chicago’s opener, was influential going forward even if she didn’t get on the box score, and exited after 81 minutes without signs of discomfort. 

Steph: Shaw keeps racking up evidence she’s indispensable. There’s like, the last 10 percent of her game left to unlock (maybe more!), and as wild as it is to think of Shaw as becoming even more dangerous and versatile, I think her ceiling is yet to come. 

Which players on the bubble can make a strong case this spring?

Steph: Olivia Moultrie, Jaelin Howell

Midfield has just been such a huge question mark with this team for years, and Moultrie and Howell are two players who could really add answers if they have strong, steady seasons. Moultrie might have a little more trouble standing out on a roster like Portland’s but it could be really beneficial for her to form a partnership with Jessie Fleming. Howell is already such an important piece for Racing that if she can really step up this season, that’s going to set this team up for success for the next four to eight years, not just for the Olympics.

Jeff: Midge Purce, Savannah DeMelo

For Purce, it’s less about “making a strong case” and more about “doing the same thing she’s been doing.” I’m not worried about if she can — the concern is whether she’ll continue to get the chances to stand out in such a starry Gotham side where she may need to do more of the thankless stuff around new additions. DeMelo wasn’t among the issues at the World Cup, and with Taylor Flint joining Howell in Louisville’s midfield, she could get even more chances to focus on the flourish in her game. 

Meg: Ashley Sanchez, Alana Cook

Clearly the three of us rate Macario, but if there are any setbacks or she’s not at full fitness over the next few months, there’s an opening for Sanchez if she pops off in North Carolina. Considering how her World Cup went and the trade to the Courage, there’s plenty of motivation for Sanchez to not just make a major tournament roster again, but earn her first minutes on the field for the USWNT.

(Photo: Brad Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images; John Todd/ISI Photos/Getty Images)