The key question for Gareth Southgate today: Who can make the step down to international level?

Let’s be honest: the top level of international football, in terms of raw quality, can no longer compare to the top level of club football.

For much of the 20th century, the idea that the best club side in Europe would be better than the best international side was fanciful. But there’s been an obvious shift, with two separate causes.

The first concerned the distribution of players. Until the Bosman ruling in 1995, most European nations, and all UEFA competitions, had a three-foreigner rule in place. Therefore, assembling anything like a dream World XI, as Real Madrid have often effectively done, was impossible. Furthermore, rising levels of inequality means talent has been concentrated at the richest clubs like never before.

The second cause is about the collective. Club managers have more time on the training ground to work on detailed strategies — and while that’s always been the case, modern football tactics are incredibly complex. It was interesting to hear Gary Neville recently speaking about Manchester United’s approach under Sir Alex Ferguson, explaining that there were no pre-determined passing patterns.

That now seems outdated — at least at club level. Besides, the use of pressing and counter-pressing have been dominant concepts at club level over the last decade, and you need complete cohesion to perform those things effectively. International sides can’t boast that and therefore often don’t try.

Tactically, club and international football are almost two separate versions of the game. You can be charitable and say they’re simply ‘different’, or you can be realistic and say that international football is some way behind.

Here’s just one example of the difference, using a measure that reflects the aforementioned concepts of pressing and counter-pressing. This is a graph showing the number of opposition passes per defensive action from teams at Euro 2020, and teams from last season’s Premier League. Put simply, the fewer passes teams allow before attempting to win the ball back, the more they’re pressing.

Of the 44 sides involved, Spain were the most intense pressers. But after that, the next eight sides are from the Premier League. Overall, the average PPDA for Premier League sides is 12.7, and the average PPDA for Euro 2020 sides was 15.2. It’s a slight simplification but at international level, you get two and a half extra passes before the opposition pounce.

There are some caveats: the international data here is from three years ago and many Euro 2020 games went to extra time, when the tempo inevitably slowed. And in terms of individual sides, game state plays a big part. England probably aren’t as passive as those numbers would suggest — it’s more about the fact they spent only nine minutes out of 690 at Euro 2020 in a losing position and didn’t need to chase matches. That said, it’s still worth taking a moment to consider that their PPDA was lower than every single Premier League side from the season just finished.

That difference in tempo isn’t the only factor. And a slower tempo, in itself, doesn’t mean the football is worse.

But the difference in tempo probably is the biggest factor. And the football, for aforementioned reasons, surely is worse.

So what Gareth Southgate should be thinking about, as he finalises his 26-man squad, is the opposite of what nearly everyone thinks. Southgate should be working out which players can make the step down to international level.

Let’s start with the opposite. The clearest example of a player who has been deemed unsuited for the step down to international level is Rico Lewis. The Manchester City right-back is a brilliant footballer — intelligent, comfortable in tight spaces, and specifically developed for the half-back role that didn’t exist in the club game a decade ago.

Sadly for Lewis, it still doesn’t really exist in international football. Southgate deployed him there in a meaningless qualifier against North Macedonia last year. Lewis — a little unluckily — conceded a penalty in a 1-1 draw, and hasn’t played since. He can slot into a title-winning side easily. But he’s not considered the right fit for international football.

Two similar but less certain cases involve Aston Villa players. Ezri Konsa enjoyed a good campaign in a defence which caught the opposition offside more than any other side in Europe, but also struggled dealing with high balls at set pieces. England won’t compress the play like Villa, and they’ll spend longer defending the penalty box. Konsa might still prove useful, especially because of his versatility. But the step down doesn’t suit his style.

At the opposite end of the pitch, Ollie Watkins isn’t solely about using his speed in behind the opposition — he was excellent in the air last season too — but it’s a major part of his game. And England will largely be battling against deeper defensive lines, which means more of an unashamed target man like Ivan Toney might make sense, particularly as a Plan B.

Deep international defences may not suit Ollie Watkins (Tony Marshall/Getty Images)

Liverpool’s Jarell Quansah is a similar case to Konsa in terms of defensive qualities, while West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen is a more extreme example of Watkins in terms of speed.

What about midfield? This is a complex area. It’s worth pointing out that Enzo Fernandez, who has been moderately impressive for Chelsea, was the World Cup winners’ most impressive midfielder 18 months ago. It’s a different game. Besides, England are so understaffed in the engine room that Kobbie Mainoo and Adam Wharton, neither of whom had started a Premier League game before November, could be in the running to start alongside Declan Rice.

Mainoo has impressed for Manchester United because he’s so comfortable receiving the ball under pressure, which is a valuable quality regardless of whether you’re playing Sunday league or Champions League. But in the more sedate setting of international football, the job description is different — less about receiving the ball under pressure and more about playing it through pressure.

Mainoo and Wharton both made their first Premier League starts in 2023-24 (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)

Wharton’s international debut as a substitute against Bosnia was notable for him recording 100 per cent pass completion rate, which was commendable. But that wasn’t in keeping with his displays for Crystal Palace, where his pass completion rate after joining in January was 81 per cent overall, only above 90 per cent once, at home to Luton Town, and actually less than the more attack-minded Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise.

That’s not a criticism; simply another way of showing the step down to international level. Eze was another Palace player who looked comfortable against Bosnia — his shift to international level will probably be about taking on opponents higher up the pitch, with fewer teams pressing and more sitting deep. Jack Grealish, meanwhile, almost needs to revert to the player he was at Aston Villa under Dean Smith — taking risks and taking on opponents, rather than the functional team player he’s become under Pep Guardiola.

The exception to the rule is probably Jarrad Branthwaite. He’s impressed for Sean Dyche’s Everton, who played the most long balls and averaged the second-lowest pass completion rate in the Premier League last season. Few doubt Branthwaite’s qualities, and he performed well on loan with a more technical PSV side the previous season. But the defender from an old-school side has the old-school question: whether he can step up to the style of international football, as England will play out from the back more, even if the two sides share the same goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford.

If England are to win Euro 2024, they will inevitably have to progress past serious opposition, and the likes of Spain and Germany are likely to play more progressive football than group opponents Serbia or Slovenia. But those high-quality matches, should they happen, will likely come towards the end of the tournament, and will feature tired players, possibly extra time, and probably risk-averse football. The quality won’t be great.

That’s the reality of international football, and Southgate will pick accordingly.

(Top photo: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)