Spain vs England: Euro 2024 final predictions and key talking points

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James BAOUCH
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After 30 days, 50 games and 114 goals, Euro 2024 will conclude today in Berlin with the final between Spain and England.

Here, The Athletic team who have covered it all the way offer their predictions for the game, explain what you need to know about the teams, and break down the key talking points.

We hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament and that it finishes with a flourish.

Match predictions

Oliver Kay, The Athletic’s senior football writer covering countries including England at Euro 2024

Prediction: Spain 2-1 England (after extra time)

Spain have performed better — much better — throughout the tournament, but it was a close-run thing against Germany in the quarter-final and France in the semi-final. I expect England to fight them all the way. But yes, Spain are favourites: a better team and they have had an extra day’s rest.

Pol Ballus, The Athletic’s lead Spain writer at Euro 2024

Prediction: Spain 2-0 England

I can’t see Spain losing this. They have been the best team in the tournament, but it’s the way in which they have survived moments in which they could have crumbled that makes me believe there won’t be an England upset here.

There have been too many episodes in which Spain could have lost the plot but they didn’t. Players feel immune to high-pressure. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams look capable of doing whatever they feel like doing. Rodri and Fabian Ruiz have dictated every game’s heartbeat so far. They even came back from a last-minute equaliser by Germany, the hosts, to knock them out in extra-time. This is simply too much.

England have a massive challenge if they are to prove they are something different to what Spain have found so far in the Euros. As much as Gareth Southgate’s team have improved, I don’t think they reached those levels yet.


Yamal has arrived as a European star (Photo: Marvin Ibo Guengoer – GES Sportfoto/Getty Images)

James Horncastle, The Athletic’s European football expert in Germany for Euro 2024

Prediction: Spain 3-1 England

Southgate was relieved not to go into extra-time against the Netherlands. It would have been a third game in a row. Spain are the worst team in the world for a tired team to face. Italy learnt this in 2012. They make you chase shadows. They make you run backwards. They’ve beaten Croatia, Italy, Germany and France.

This is a monumental task for England.

Jack Pitt-Brooke, The Athletic’s lead England writer at Euro 2024

Prediction: England 1-0 Spain (after extra time)

Clearly, Spain are the better team who have played miles better football so far this tournament. But England have an ominous aura about them, an ability to drag the game out and a conviction they can find a way to win.

If they can turn it into their sort of game they can find a way.

Tim Spiers, The Athletic’s football writer covering Euro 2024 from Germany and the UK

Prediction: Spain 1-1 England (5-6 on penalties)

Alvaro Morata gives Spain an early lead when he takes advantage of Marc Guehi’s slip, but Guehi makes amends when he heads home a corner shortly before half-time.

Jude Bellingham’s red card for a flailing elbow on Fabian Ruiz in extra-time rocks England but they hold on for penalties…and Declan Rice hits the winning spot kick after Pickford saves from Marc Cucurella.

Seb Stafford-Bloor, The Athletic’s lead Germany writer at Euro 2024

Prediction: Spain 2-0 England

England looked exhausted on Wednesday night, particularly in midfield, and Gareth Southgate was right to worry about having one fewer day’s rest.

Southgate also said that his players would need to be perfect with and without the ball and, head over heart, their fatigue will likely prevent them from reaching the required standard.

What you need to know about…

Spain

Luis De la Fuente is not a coach who experiments — so don’t expect big calls ahead of the final. There’s only one doubt in his line-up — who will partner Aymeric Laporte in the centre of defence. Robin Le Normand and Nacho will fight for the place, with the former being the favourite. Dani Carvajal, suspended for the semi-final, will return to the starting line-up.

Spain’s players used the fact they weren’t regarded as being pre-tournament contenders as motivation and have not shown any weakness since being labelled as favourites after impressing in the group stages, going on to beat Germany and France.

“We have never lost perspective from the start to now,” said De la Fuente. “We know how analysis works. In tomorrow’s game there are no favourites, as in the previous knockout games. Anything about deciding favourites we leave it to the betting companies, it’s not our job.”

Spain are confident of being able to dictate the tempo of the game against an England side that will prefer to wait and see. “If we dominate the ball as we’ve done and stay aware of the high pressure and everything we need to do to avoid counter-attacks, we’ll have plenty of chances to win,” the defender Marc Cucurella said about the game in an interview with The Athletic.

Another fact to keep in mind: as much as De la Fuente might have been an unknown manager to the football world, he has vast experience reaching the final stages in international competitions. While managing Spain’s youth ranks, he never failed to reach, at least, the semi-finals of every major tournament they played in. This experience is one the coaching staff will expect to use, as well as that of the likes of veteran players Rodri, Carvajal and Nacho.

Pol Ballus

Results so far: Group B – 3-0 v Croatia (Morata 29, Fabian Ruiz 32; Carvajal 45+2), 1-0 v Italy (Calafiori og 55), 1-0 v Albania (Ferran Torres 13) (finished top); Round of 16 – 4-1 v Georgia (Rodri 39, Fabian Ruiz 51, Williams 75, Olmo 83, Le Norman og 18); Quarter-final – 2-1 aet v Germany (Olmo 51, Merino 119; Wirtz 89); Semi-final – 2-1 v France (Yamal 21, Olmo 25; Kolo Muani 9).

England

“I don’t believe in fairytales, but I do believe in dreams,” said England manager Gareth Southgate on the eve of the final.

Twenty-eight years ago, Southgate missed the crucial penalty in the semi-final shootout as Germany won Euro 1996 in England. Is it fate, Southgate was asked, if he was to lead England to the same trophy in Germany?

“We’ve had big dreams and felt the importance of that, but you’ve got to make those dreams happen,” he said. “Fate, the late goals we’ve had, the penalties, that doesn’t equate to it being our moment. We’ve got to make it happen tomorrow. It’s in our hands, and it’s our performance which is the most important thing.”

Before the final, Southgate said that his entire squad was fit. Full-back Kieran Trippier, who has been filling in at left-back this tournament, was a minor doubt, and will now battle against Luke Shaw to be selected.

“We’re excited for the challenge,” said Southgate. “Clearly the team have improved over the last few weeks, shown tremendous character and resilience. They’ve been a privilege to work with every day on the training pitch, and it’s been a great environment to work in. We’ve got a fantastic opportunity tomorrow, we’ve been looking forward to it since we went home a bit earlier than we wanted from Qatar.”


Southgate celebrates the semi-final win (Photo: Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)

Sunday evening will also be a significant night for Harry Kane, England men’s all-time top goalscorer, who has not won a team trophy in his career. Asked whether he would swap all of his individual awards for the Euros trophy, Kane was certain in his response.

“It’s no secret that I haven’t won a team trophy, and every year that goes by you’re more determined to change that,” he replied. “It’s no secret that I’d swap everything in my career to have that special evening.”

Jacob Whitehead

Results so far: Group C – 1-0 v Serbia (Bellingham 13), 1-1 v Denmark (Kane 18; Hjumland 34), 0-0 v Slovenia (finished top); Round of 16 – 2-1 aet v Slovakia (Bellingham 90+5, Kane 90+1 (aet); Schranz 25); Quarter-final – 1-1 aet v Switzerland (Saka 80; Embolo 75) 5-3 pens; Semi-final – 2-1 v Netherlands (Kane 18 pen, Watkins 90+1; Simons 7).

Read up on the coaches

The officials

Spain centre-backs Aymeric Laporte and Robin Le Normand were both born in France. Should they partner up in central defence, they will be two of three individuals with French ties on the Olympiastadion field.

Francois Letexier, who is from Brittany in northwest France, has been chosen to officiate the game. The 35-year-old will become the youngest referee to take charge of a men’s European Championship final.

The part-time court bailiff, who enjoys the life balance of both professions, was the fourth official for the opening game of the tournament between Germany and Scotland. And Letexier will be familiar with Spain having taken charge of their last-16 meeting with Georgia, which they won 4-1.

Referee: François Letexier (France)
Assistant referees: Cyril Mugnier, Mehdi Rahmouni (both France)
Fourth official: Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Reserve assistant referee: Tomasz Listkiewicz (Poland)
Video assistant referee: Jerome Brisard (France)
VAR assistant: Willy Delajod (France)
VAR support: Massimiliano Irrati (Italy)

Kick-off time

The game begins at 9pm local time in Berlin, which is 8pm in the UK and 3pm ET. You can watch the game on BBC One or ITV 1 in the UK or Fox in the US.

The venue

The showpiece final of this summer’s European Championship, likely to attract a worldwide television audience in excess of 300 million people, will be played at the Olympiastadion in Berlin — a stadium originally built and funded on the orders of Europe’s most notorious dictator, Adolf Hitler.

Since 1945, Germany has grappled with its history in a thoughtful way. Being Germany, there is a word for it: vergangenheitsaufarbeitung, which translates to mean ‘working from the past.’ The Olympiastadion is a listed building, preserved since 1966, albeit its history is vividly detailed by tour guides and via a small museum.

You can read more here: Adolf Hitler, Jesse Owens and Berlin’s Olympiastadion: the complicated history of Euro 2024 final venue

Look out for…

Two contrasting styles of play

Spain might be the standout favourites but England will arrive in Berlin as the more experienced nation in recent major tournaments.

The Spanish have not reached the final of the Euros since they won it in 2012 while Southgate has made it to back-to-back finals. England are looking to overcome the disappointment of their loss to Italy in 2021.

A diplomatic appraisal would be that England have been confusing this summer. There have been flashes of cohesion in possession — particularly in the first half against the Dutch — but the overriding conclusion has been that Southgate’s side have shown strengths in individual moments rather than their general performance.

The speed of England’s forward play has been a huge source of frustration among fans and the numbers support their grievances.

Here, we can look at each nation’s “direct speed”, which outlines how fast they typically advance the ball towards goal (in metres per second). A higher number indicates a team more willing to get the ball forward quickly. Additionally, we can explore how much a team likes to keep hold of the ball when they have it, measured by “passes per sequence”. More passes per sequence suggests a more considered build-up: knocking the ball around more during a given possession rather than a quick hoof upfield.

Comparing England’s style to the remaining 23 teams, their approach in possession has been careful, risk-averse and lacking in bite for much of the tournament.

A high-possession style does not have to be a bad thing but England have not matched their on-ball dominance with attacking threat. Among all last-16 nations, only Romania and Georgia (0.7 per 90) averaged a lower non-penalty expected goals than England’s 0.72 per 90.

The highest nation on the list? That would be Spain, generating chances worthy of 1.8 goals per 90 across their six games.

The Lamine Yamal goal

The prodigious Lamine Yamal became the youngest scorer in European Championship history (16 years, 362 days) after his incredible semi-final goal against France.

It was a strike that could easily win the goal of the tournament and you cannot say that France were not warned. Yamal’s tendency to cut inside onto his stronger left foot and curl a shot to the far post has become Arjen Robben-esque — you know what he is about to do but stopping it is another task altogether.

And here he is doing that a few times for Spain as an even younger child…

Beyond his shooting, Yamal’s creative threat has stood out the most. No Spanish player has logged more than his 11 open-play chances created and it is his wicked delivery to the back post that has consistently posed a threat.

Harry Kane chasing his moment

When Harry Kane leaves the tunnel to walk proudly out onto the grass in Berlin on Sunday, he will become the first man to lead England out in two major tournament finals.

If he scores and Dani Olmo does not, he will become the first Englishman to win the Golden Boot at two different major tournaments. One goal will also give him more goals in the Euros than any other Englishman in history (he is currently tied with Alan Shearer on seven). He now has more knockout-stage goals in men’s European Championships and World Cups combined than any other European player ever, with his tally of nine ahead of Kylian Mbappe and three others on eight.

We could do this all day. Kane’s whole career has been defined by him relentlessly chasing down individual achievements. Whenever he has sized up a record or a target, he has pursued it like a greyhound, breaking it faster than anyone could have anticipated. You may think he already has enough records to satisfy him, but there is no sign that the Harry Kane accumulation machine is going to stop accumulating any time soon.


Kane has not looked his best but could yet win the Golden Boot (Photo: Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)

But there is far more at stake for Kane on Sunday than this — more at stake for him, it seems, than for any other player on the pitch. And not just because of the old debate about whether he needs to win a trophy to be seen as a true great. (If you have a definition of ‘greatness’ that does not include Kane, then you simply need to chuck it out and find a new one.)

What Kane really needs for his legacy, for his place in the public mind, is a moment.

He needs an image that will stick in the shared national narrative forever; he needs his David Beckham free kick against Greece, Bobby Moore lifting the Jules Rimet trophy, Geoff Hurst’s hat-trick, Paul Gascoigne’s flash of individual brilliance against Scotland.

One of the curious things about Kane’s career is that no such moment exists. Even after almost 10 years now as a world-class striker, at the pinnacle of the game for both club and country, he is a player more defined by his numbers than by one particular memory or image.

Cucurella v Palmer?

“His football brain works so quickly, he is always a step ahead of the rest. His decision-making is almost always excellent, and that sort of intelligence is the most difficult thing to defend against, you just can’t predict what he’ll do next. I’ve suffered a lot in training.”

This is Spain defender Marc Cucurella telling The Athletic why he hopes he doesn’t have to face his Chelsea team-mate Cole Palmer in the final.

Cucurella and Palmer have established themselves as cult heroes at this summer’s tournament. The Spaniard for playing a key part in the competition’s most impressive team after a testing time in domestic football, his club-mate for his vital assist off the bench against the Netherlands and the spark he offers that has created consistent calls for him to start.

That seems unlikely now, but if Gareth Southgate’s England are again staring down the barrel and searching for inspiration then don’t be surprised if he turns to the 22-year-old forward to replicate those Chelsea training sessions.

“He reminds me a lot of Lamine Yamal,” adds Cucurella. “Same style of player. He is a guy who does not care too much about anything. They don’t take life or themselves too seriously. If you ran into Palmer in the streets, you would never tell he is a footballer. But then he plays and… oof.”

Big moves after the big game

Athletic Bilbao president has Jon Uriarte criticised the Spanish Football Federation for not “protecting” Nico Williams from an “uncontrolled and unreasonable” amount of questions about his club future during the European Championship.

Williams, 21, has enjoyed an impressive Euro 2024, starting five of Spain’s six matches and providing a goal and an assist during his side’s run to the final. The winger signed a three-year contract extension last December with Athletic to keep him at the club until 2027, but The Athletic reported Barcelona, Arsenal and Chelsea all hold an interest in him.

He has often faced media questions about his club future during the tournament, and Uriarte said the federation should have done more to shelter him from this while insisting the club has no intention of selling him. The federation for its part told The Athletic that he has been treated the same as the other 25 players in the squad.

Williams was named player of the match after Spain’s 1-0 victory over Italy in the group stages and was subsequently asked about his future — a line of questioning he called “very weird”.

“I just extended my contract at Athletic not long ago, I am very comfortable there. Very happy,” he told Spanish broadcaster TVE. “I have just signed a new deal, it feels very weird that you ask me about my future.”


There’s no shortage of clubs eyeing Williams (Photo: Jeroen van den Berg/Soccrates/Getty Images)

The Athletic reported as part of his new deal, Williams’ salary was upgraded to reflect his progress from an academy graduate to his new status within the squad, but his release clause remained almost untouched. Athletic refuse to comment on any figures, but industry sources say Williams’ release clause is in the region of €55million ($59m; £47m).

He is not the only player whose form has generated interest in them from other clubs. Dani Olmo was developed at Barcelona’s La Masia academy but left for Croatian club Dinamo Zagreb age 16.

A decade later, a return to one of Europe’s elite clubs could now be on the cards. After four impressive seasons in the German Bundesliga with RB Leipzig, Olmo has enlisted a PR company to boost his international profile. As it turns out, being a joint-leader of the Golden Boot race at the European Championship with one match to go on three goals and two assists and helping your team reach Sunday’s final, was all the promotion he needed.

With a €60million (£50.5m, $65.2m) release clause, the 26-year-old forward is available at a reasonable price, too. Olmo expects to leave Leipzig this summer after reaching a gentleman’s agreement with them last year. It had been widely reported that his release clause expires on July 15, the day after the final against England in Berlin, but The Athletic understands the expiry date is July 20. Olmo’s camp believes there should be no barriers to his exit if an interested club present a similar proposal after that date.

Reporting by Mark Carey, Jack Pitt-Brooke and Pol Ballus

The key numbers

The Golden Boot race

The final will also determine the winner of the Golden Boot at Euro 2024, with Spain’s Dani Olmo, England’s Harry Kane, Georgia’s Georges Mikautadze, Cody Gakpo of the Netherlands, Slovakia’s Ivan Schranz and Germany’s Jamal Musiala all top on three goals each.

Of those six players, only Olmo and Kane have reached the final.

There are nine players who have scored exactly two goals in this year’s European Championship, with Spain’s Fabian Ruiz and England’s Jude Bellingham the only two still in the competition.

In previous competitions, assists were used to split any players tied on the same number of goals but UEFA has changed that this year and all players tied on the same number of goals come the final whistle in Berlin will share the trophy. Penalties in a shootout do not count.

Top scorers at Euro 2024

Player Country Goals Assists Minutes played

Dani Olmo

Spain

3

2

341

Georges Mikautadze

Georgia

3

1

347

Cody Gakpo

Netherlands

3

1

525

Ivan Schranz

Slovakia

3

0

335

Jamal Musiala

Germany

3

0

423

Harry Kane

England

3

0

545

You can read about the previous winners here

England’s 58 years of hurt

England play Spain in the final of Euro 2024 on Sunday and Gareth Southgate’s team have the chance to win their country’s first men’s major trophy since 1966.

If England are victorious in Berlin it will end a drought — the so-called 58 “years of hurt” — that has lasted from the moment Geoff Hurst’s hat-trick against West Germany helped win the 1966 World Cup final.

Since that triumph at Wembley Stadium, 21,168 days have passed. There have been 13 different Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom. At the time of that 4-2 victory on home soil, the Big Mac was still nine months away from being released and only four James Bond films had come out. Oh, and another World Cup would be staged before Southgate was even born.

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What else can Spain win?

Six hours before La Roja walk out at the Olympiastadion, one of their most devoted fans will step onto grass that he has made his own.

At 2pm UK / 9am ET, defending Wimbledon tennis champion Carlos Alcaraz will face 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic in the 2024 men’s final. In 2023, Alcaraz beat Djokovic in a five-set epic, and this time he’ll be taking to the court looking to hold up his end of a Spanish sporting double.

Alcaraz is a diehard Real Madrid fan, just like his hero (and more recently, rival) Rafael Nadal, who won Wimbledon in 2008 and 2010 when Spain won the Euros and World Cup respectively. He watched their knife-edge tie against Germany from an ice bath on his phone and has interrupted press conferences about his own brilliance just to find out the score in their matches.

The respect between Alcaraz and his idols is mutual: Rodri, Alvaro Morata, and Dani Carvajal have watched him play tennis, and Alcaraz has texted Morata before matches, turning into something of a good-luck charm. When he starts his match against Djokovic, expect some of the squad to be tuning in — perhaps not from an ice bath.

(Top photos: Getty Images)



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