A month after Lee Carsley’s all-out attacking strategy ended with a shock 2-1 defeat to Greece at Wembley, England face the same opponents again with automatic promotion on the line in this UEFA Nations League fixture in Athens.
With Thomas Tuchel taking charge of the national team in January, Thursday’s match will be Carsley’s penultimate game as interim manager. Sunday’s match against the Republic of Ireland at Wembley will be his last.
England are chasing promotion to League A but trail Greece by three points with only two group games remaining. As such, victory at the Athens Olympic Stadium would go a long way to assuaging fears of missing out on an automatic return to the top division.
How can England gain automatic promotion?
If England top League B, Group 2, they will be automatically promoted to League A, from which they were relegated last season along with Austria, Czech Republic and Wales.
Currently, England are second, with Greece top after four wins from four, and the Republic of Ireland third, six points behind England after three losses, and winless Finland bottom.
Finish second and promotion is still possible through a home-and-away tie against a third-placed team from League A, which will take place March 20-25, 2025.
As things stand, second place could be more likely for Carsley’s men…
Harry Kane pictured during a training session at St George’s Park on November 12, 2024 (Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
What if England lose to Greece?
If England lose, they have no chance of topping the group as Greece will go six points clear with only one group match remaining.
It will be a tough away trip for a below-strength England, as Greece, who beat England for the first time last month, could happily play for the draw, safe in the knowledge that they would just have to defeat Finland three days later in Helsinki to win the group.
Even if England win on Thursday, they will hope to do so comprehensively as Greece’s goal difference is currently better by three.
To make matters worse for England, they have been hit by injuries to key players after Trent Alexander-Arnold, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Levi Colwill, Jack Grealish and Aaron Ramsdale all withdrew from the squad for the final Nations League group games.
Could England suffer successive relegations?
Every cloud has a silver lining. England, at least, stayed clear of automatic relegation and only have a slim chance of being involved in a relegation play-off.
Just as the teams that finish third in League A will play the second-placed teams in League B in a promotion/relegation play-off, the same will happen between the third-placed teams in League B and the second-placed teams in League C. The teams that finish bottom of their groups are automatically relegated to the league below.
Finland and the Republic of Ireland are the two teams battling to avoid these fates in League B, Group 2. Mathematically, the Republic of Ireland could overtake England if they won both their remaining group games — against England and Finland — and England lost both their games. However, contributing to the Republic’s plight is the need to also overturn England’s superior goal difference over them, which would currently require a 10-goal swing.
Does any of this matter?
The Nations League was introduced in the 2018-19 season to replace what UEFA, European soccer’s governing body, called “meaningless” international friendlies and to give countries more competitive games against teams of a similar standard.
In total, 54 teams are spread over four leagues — labelled A to D — with 16 teams each in Leagues A, B and C, and six in League D. Each league is split into groups, with four groups (A1, A2, A3, A4 etc) in Leagues A to C and two in League D.
Each team plays six games in the league phase; home and away fixtures against the three other teams in the group.
League A is top of the tree and where the Nations League winner is decided. League A winners face League A runners-up in home-and-away quarter-finals to qualify for the final four.
Up for grabs is significant prize money. For the last campaign, eventual winners Spain were awarded €10.5million (£8.9m, $11.7m), while runners-up Croatia got €9m.
This is on top of an initial payment for participating, which goes from €1.5m for League A teams to €500,000 for League D teams. There are also extra bonuses for winning your group, ranging from €750,000 in League A to €250,000 in League D.
England are currently second in their Nations League group (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
What’s England’s Nations League record?
Not great considering they are the fourth-best nation in the world, according to FIFA rankings. Even given the fact top nations sometimes rotate squads in the competition, England’s record should be better. This season, England have averaged two goals per match and won three of their four games, but October’s historic loss to Greece, especially the performance itself, was a low moment.
Matches played: 22 (including two knockout-round appearances)
Wins: 8
Draws: 6
Losses: 8
How to watch
Kick-off at the Athens Olympic Stadium is at 7.45 pm GMT (2.45pm ET). For UK viewers, it will be broadcast live on ITV1, with coverage starting at 7pm GMT. Viewers in the U.S. can watch the game on FS1.
(Top picture: Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
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