This is the last of a four-part series examining the selection decisions facing England manager Gareth Southgate before this summer’s European Championship. Part one looked at the goalkeepers, part two was on the defenders and part three assessed the midfielders.
The current international break might give England a chance to practise the one scenario they do not want to face at Euro 2024: playing without Harry Kane.
The good news is the injury the England captain sustained in his Bayern Munich side’s 5-2 away win over Darmstadt at the weekend was a contact one, albeit tangling with the goal netting, not a player. These tend to be less serious than the non-contact kind.
Kane is robust, having played over 90 per cent of possible league minutes every season since 2019-20, but it is a reminder to manager Gareth Southgate of the precariousness of elite football. England have evolved since his appointment in 2016 from a defend-first side that changed shape against better teams in knockout games into one of Europe’s best.
Throughout that time, Kane up front has been the constant.
(Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
England have scored 200 goals under Southgate. Kane has 57 of them. He holds the record for the most England goals by a senior male (62), even when isolated to competitive games (55). His 12 goals at major tournaments are the most in England’s history and his total of five hat-tricks is beaten only by Jimmy Greaves (six).
Moment of the Day 👀
When @England’s Harry Kane netted an injury-time winner on his #WorldCup debut 💪🎥 Highlights 👉 https://t.co/LOdKDX2Cwn
👀 TV listings 👉 https://t.co/xliHcxWvEO pic.twitter.com/wafiZ8XmEz— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) June 18, 2018
At Russia 2018, England scored 12 times in seven games as they finished fourth — their most at a World Cup since winning it in 1966. Kane accounted for half of those, winning the Golden Boot. At the next World Cup four years later, in Qatar, he scored two of their 13, which was a new national record for a single tournament despite England playing two games fewer than in 2018, as they were knocked out by France in the quarter-finals.
That elimination, technically, was because of Kane. His late missed penalty, having scored one earlier in the game, meant England lost 2-1. It is just one of four penalties he has missed for England in 25 attempts. It was uncharacteristic and that showed in his response.
“What I’ve observed is a player still super-confident, still ready to perform, still hungry to score goals,” said Southgate. When club football resumed after that mid-season World Cup, only Erling Haaland of treble-bound Manchester City could match Kane’s total of 18 Premier League goals for the remainder of 2022-23, scored at a rate of almost one in four shots and one every 115 minutes.
He also scored in all four of England’s post-Qatar games that season, including a pressure penalty against Italy in Naples to double the lead in an eventual 2-1 Euros qualifying win and break the England men’s goalscoring record set by Wayne Rooney. Then Italy coach Roberto Mancini, a former prolific striker for Sampdoria and a 36-cap Italy international, was full of praise: “He can do everything. He scores, he lets the team play, he is strong with headers, he takes penalties. He is a complete striker.”
After scoring 30 of Tottenham Hotspur’s 70 league goals last season, Kane moved to Bayern for an undisclosed fee of more than €100million (£85.8m; $108.7m at current exchange rates), a month after turning 30. Southgate saw the positives in the transfer: “It’s good that his future is settled now for the next few years. Potentially, that can be a distraction for players, but also it’s good for him that he’s got to go and perform at a new club now.”
Southgate acknowledged that the game in the Bundesliga is more transitional but valued Kane joining a high-possession team, as more of his play is closer to goal, with better and more consistent service. It has underpinned his 31-goal season (37 in all competitions), already the most by any player making their debut in the Bundesliga, for a side that resembles England much more closely than the Spurs ones he was part of.
In typical Kane fashion, 17 have been right-footed finishes, to go with eight headers and six left-foot shots. Nine of those are match-winners, the most in a Bundesliga season since Robert Lewandowski’s 10 for Bayern in 2020-21. It is a collection that includes every type of goal: running onto through balls, tap-ins from cutbacks, shots from distance, back-post finishes from near-post corner flick-ons, shots on the turn and seizing on rebounds.
Kane scored eight goals in England’s eight matches in Euro 2024 qualifying. Only Romelu Lukaku (14, for Belgium), Cristiano Ronaldo (10, for Portugal) and Kylian Mbappe (nine, for France) had more. England were one of six nations — with the three in the previous sentence as well as Hungary and Romania — to go through the qualification phase unbeaten.
The issue for Southgate, as it is for counterparts Domenico Tedesco (Belgium) and Didier Deschamps (France), is how to fit a team around a star player. Kane is more well-rounded than Lukaku and Mbappe, better in build-up and in leading the press, but, like any striker, has tendencies which need to be supported and protected in the right ways.
Kane dropping deep in build-up suits inverted wingers who can run in behind and a No 10 (Jude Bellingham) who will crash the box. His one-touch finishing, off both feet, is probably the best in Europe. England need crossing full-backs to make the best use of him.
The problem is one of abundance. In The Athletic a couple of weeks ago, former England striker Alan Shearer pointed out the “embarrassment of riches” in Southgate’s forward department. Even without Kane and Bellingham playing in it, six of the Premier League’s top 10 scorers this season are English: Ollie Watkins (16 goals), Dominic Solanke (15), Jarrod Bowen (14), Bukayo Saka (13), Phil Foden and Cole Palmer (both 11). Saka and Foden are the only likely starters for Southgate this summer.
Watkins, Solanke and Bowen have very different profiles. From a squad building/depth standpoint, that is ideal, but it also complicates the process as justified arguments can be made for picking them all.
Solanke is the most similar to Kane, strong back-to-goal, leading a highly effective press for Bournemouth, and a versatile finisher. Aston Villa’s Watkins excels at running off the shoulder of centre-backs, ideal against compact mid-blocks, and he is creative, too: his 10 Premier League assists are the joint-most so far this season.
As a depth pick, Bowen offers the most versatility. He can play out wide or as a No 9 — David Moyes often changes his role in-game for West Ham. A quality dribbler, Bowen is not quite Kane-level as a goalscorer, but he finishes under pressure better than almost anyone. He strikes well with both feet and has excellent movement when attacking crosses.
There is understandable pressure to maximise a golden age of English forwards. Ten of the first 12 Golden Boot winners in the Premier League era were Englishmen. This was followed by a 15-season drought, but in the past eight years, the award has gone to a homegrown player four times — Kane in 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2020-21, and Jamie Vardy in 2019-20. All four were won outright.
There are two problems England need to avoid.
First, while form picks are logical during an international break — when players are playing regularly for their clubs — England’s first group game this summer (against Serbia on June 16) is almost a full month after many league seasons throughout Europe end. How long does form last if you aren’t playing?
Second, move the team around too much to accommodate another forward and your best players can end up in non-optimal positions. England should learn from Deschamps’ France, making tweaks to Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann’s positions/roles between tournaments but still building the side around them.
Southgate took eight forwards to the past two tournaments, but with 23 places rather than the 26 permitted on those occasions, is likely to take one fewer this time. Kane, Manchester City’s Foden and Saka of Arsenal are nailed on. Which leaves four spots.
“It’s the area of the pitch where we have the highest level of competition,” Southgate said ahead of this week’s friendlies against Brazil and Belgium. When asked about 82-cap former stalwart Raheem Sterling’s absence from this squad, he said, “We’ll never close the door because we know he can perform in the games that really matter, but at the moment we see him behind those guys.”
“Those guys” are Sterling’s Chelsea team-mate Palmer, Anthony Gordon of Newcastle and Bowen. Sterling’s possible omission, increasingly likely as he has not played for England, or even made a squad, since the 2022 World Cup, would be significant as he is one of three forwards — along with Kane and Marcus Rashford of Manchester United — who have featured at all three major tournaments under Southgate.
New signing Palmer, not Sterling, has been the difference maker for Chelsea this season, with 11 goals and eight assists in the league and a perfect record from the penalty spot (five out of five) — a bonus in tournament football. He is a different type of left-footed right-winger to Saka, more of a passer than a dribbler, and could even play as a No 8. With 15 caps for the under-21s and having played a key role in their European Championship win last summer, Palmer looks ready to step up to the senior side and add to his two appearances off the bench during the previous international break in November.
Gordon, meanwhile, would be the ideal substitute. His top speed and acceleration are phenomenal, but he struggles to sustain this for a full game — important considering the limited recovery between tournament matches. In bursts of 30 minutes, his one-v-one ability, attacking inside or outside a full-back (as a right-footed left-winger), is excellent.
He has carried form over from winning player of the tournament at those Under-21 Euros, where he was used as a false nine in a high-possession system. Gordon’s nine league goals already this season are more than he had in 2021-22 and 2022-23 combined and he has been rewarded with his first senior call-up this month.
The approach to picking depth places, for both wings and at No 9, can go one of three ways: choose based on pure form, on the most experience or on players with different profiles to the likely starters.
Pure form: Watkins and Solanke in addition to Kane, with Bowen to cover the wings. Then take your pick from Palmer or Gordon.
Experience: Rashford, Sterling, Callum Wilson of Newcastle and Manchester City’s Jack Grealish. It is a little left-side heavy, but Sterling can also play on the right and all have been to a major tournament before.
(Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)
Wilson and Grealish are currently injured but were part of the 2022 World Cup squad — Grealish came off the bench in all five games, Wilson did so twice. The latter’s injury record counts against him and has limited his minutes, but his goalscoring record is excellent. Across nine Premier League seasons and over 200 appearances, Wilson averages a goal every 183 minutes (just about one every two matches). He has scored 21 of 24 career penalties, including a current run of 13 in a row.
Rashford was resurgent last season but has largely struggled in this one. Southgate has also warned him about off-field behaviour, but two goals in the 3-0 group-phase derby win against Wales at the 2022 World Cup showed his value.
3 – Marcus Rashford is the first Manchester United player to score three goals at a major tournament for England since Bobby Charlton at the 1966 World Cup. Devils. pic.twitter.com/dRpEnChD4r
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 29, 2022
Finally, the different profiles approach: Bowen, Gordon, Sterling and Ivan Toney. Sterling and Bowen are versatile dribblers who can play on either side. The right-footed Gordon is perfect balance for left-footed Foden at left wing. Toney’s return in January from an eight-month ban for breaking betting rules means his minutes for Brentford have been limited, but his target-man profile is unique. Also, he is 29 for 31 from the penalty spot in his senior career.
England’s first-choice front three this summer? (Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images)
Regardless of which approach people prefer, or what Southgate and his staff opt for, there is succession planning in place.
“I think the nice thing is that, (for) some players, it will be probably their last chance to win something, some will be at their peak, and some have still got space to grow,” Southgate said in September. “I don’t see the team falling off a cliff after the next tournament (as they set off on qualification for the 2026 World Cup).”
For all the discussion and inevitable debate around who is (and isn’t) picked among the England forwards for Euro 2024, it is worth remembering Southgate’s side did not need to rely on attacking firepower at the previous version of the competition three years ago. Two 1-0 wins and a goalless draw in the group stages, followed by 2-0, 4-0 and 2-1 (after extra time) victories got them to the final, which finished 1-1 before Italy came out on top in a penalty shootout.
Kane is the undoubted figurehead of this team, but they have other ways to win, too.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
Read the full article here