At first glance, Gareth Southgate and England appear to have won the major tournament knockout bracket lottery (again). In topping group C, they avoid Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium and hosts Germany.
Slovakia are, realistically, not the same level of opposition as England have faced in three major tournament round of 16s under Southgate: then-African champions Senegal at the 2022 World Cup, Germany at Euro 2020, Colombia at the 2018 World Cup.
Slovakia have already equalled their best-ever Euros finish (round of 16 at Euro 2016) and, in qualifying as a third-place team, they become an easy write off.
Yet without stepping too far into the “no such thing as an easy knockout game” cliche, there are three reasons Slovakia might cause England in particular some problems when they meet on Sunday.
Firstly, they’ve shown their capacity for an upset, on matchday one beating Belgium 1-0. “I am trying to impose on the team the mentality to play all games openly, regardless of the opponent’s qualities,” said Italian coach Francesco Calzona said in qualifying. Their two qualifying defeats to Portugal were both by a marginal goal.
If England have questions over their midfield selection, Slovakia do not. Stanislav Lobotka is the deepest of the trio, with Ondrej Duda (who played at World Cup 2010) and Juraj Kucka in more advanced positions. It is a balanced central midfield, with No 8s who press aggressively out of a mid-block, late-running goalscoring threats (Duda especially) and an anchor (Lobotoka) who is comfortable stitching attacks together and playing under pressure.
Expect a 4-3-3 attacking shape with shades of 2022-23 Napoli in the way they combine out wide and use up-back-through patterns to release midfielders. Without possession, they like to drop into a 4-1-4-1 and push a No 8 forward to press centre-backs.
They were the oldest team in qualifying and are the oldest team at the tournament too. Calzona has built his side on strong foundations, not just tactically but specifically in terms of experience in the spine of the team.
“Putting together 25-30 players from at least 11 or 12 different championships with different roles and mentalities was the hardest part,” Calzona said in qualifying. “Getting them to all think along the same lines, and in a short time, was really difficult. But we always play to win.”
Left centre-back Milan Skriniar is a Paris Saint-Germain regular, suited to one-v-one duels in the air. He can be expected to cause England No 9 Harry Kane problems and defend touch-tight. To the left of Skriniar is Feyenoord’s David Hancko, a centre-back a club level who is used at full-back by Calzona. Naturally his strengths are defensive but he has a fantastic cross on him.
Newcastle United’s Martin Dubravka is between the sticks. He can look shaky on the ball, partly because Calzona likes him to take up aggressive positions to the bait the press, with Slovakia often building-up through patterns to connect the midfielders to full-backs.
Against Belgium especially, Dubravka’s distribution was erratic and England’s press ought to target him. As a shotstopper, though, Dubravka is solid and a fundamental reason why Slovakia are so watertight — he has conceded less than a goal-per-game in 16 caps under Calzona, with clean sheets in half those matches, including two of the three group-stage games.
As relieved as England might be to avoid any big hitters, there is plenty to dislike about facing another compact mid/low-block (like Slovenia), particularly with England yet to resolve left-sided attacking issues. In fact, England and Slovakia had the lowest expected goals tallies of any sides to qualify. There is every reason to expect another of Southgate’s low-shot specials.
Search for Slovakia in most team style metrics and they come out remarkably average. It can be viewed as a team lacking real tactical super-strengths, and underlines their lack of a goalscoring No 9, but also reflects how Calzona has raised the floor and eliminated any significant weaknesses.
For a team with a limited open-play output, they maximise set-piece situations to good effect. Slovakia scored regularly from near-post corner deliveries in qualifying (see goals against Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lichtenstein, Iceland). There is a long-range shot threat to be respected too, with only France (seven) scoring more than their five goals from outside the box in qualifying.
Those who have not kept close tabs on Slovakian football (shame on you) might be disappointed to see the absence of Marek Hamsik — on the pitch, anyway. He retired internationally in May 2022, though was an emergency call-up last summer due to injuries. Now he’s part of Calzona’s coaching staff (at Napoli too).
Ivan Schranz and Lukas Haraslin are the forwards to watch. Right-winger Schranz has scored both Slovakia’s goals this Euros: against Belgium, an angled half-volley on the rebound, after Slovakia forced a high turnover from a Belgium throw close to their own goal. He opened the scoring in their 2-1 defeat to Ukraine. Slovakia set-up for a long throw, then went short and Haraslin hung a back-post cross for Schranz — the first Slovakian with multiple major tournament goals.
Slovakia strike first in Dusseldorf! 👊
Ivan Schranz makes it two goals in two games 2️⃣⚽#BBCEuros #Euro2024 #SVKUKR pic.twitter.com/sUpvHCBML1
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) June 21, 2024
Haraslin is a right-footer playing off the left, fairly enigmatic and the type of winger who can ghost for periods of matches before coming alive with a dribble and winning the game. If England dominate possession as expected, they will leave space for Schranz and Haraslin in transition, with Slovakia particularly effective at breaking from midfield-third regains — England’s counter-press will have to be spot on.
Calzona is certainly more of an in-game tactician than Southgate. If Slovakia’s build-up is not working or their pressing is off, they won’t persist with it for too long. He had Dubravka start kicking long against Belgium when Slovakia could not find a way through the press.
England and Slovakia have major tournament history, last meeting in 2016. That was the last group-stage game managed by someone not named Gareth Southgate — Roy Hodgon’s England drew 0-0. If Southgate is to crown his England legacy with silverware, there will not be many more favourable routes to the final. But first, he has a tactical banana skin to negotiate.
(Photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)
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