Manchester United have signed Joshua Zirkzee from Bologna for €42.5million (£35.8m; $46.2m) on a five-year deal with an option of a further year.
Our writers — who are experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finances — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each given a score out of 100 to reach a total figure out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained in more detail here.
Below is our rating for this move.
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Tactical fit 75/100
A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically, as analysed by our tactical expert
A top ball-playing goalkeeper such as United’s Andre Onana allows different build-up variations and Zirkzee, being comfortable on the ball, provides a more direct option. This would allow United to drive up the pitch and introduce new attacking dynamism.
Zirkzee can manipulate the ball and bypass players in congested areas (as shown further down). He can facilitate build-up play, and drop deep to disorganise defensive units or evade pressure. He also excels in take-ons, attempting 4.2 of them per 90 minutes (putting him in the 90th percentile — ie, only 10 per cent of players performed more), compared to fellow front man Rasmus Hojlund’s 1.77 for United last season.
His ability to link play with Hojlund, who thrives in space, could relieve the Dane of the burden of facing both opposition centre-backs. Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho could benefit by focusing on stretching the other team’s back line vertically with runs in behind.
In this match against Napoli in May, Zirkzee’s link-up play was shown as he frequently sought passes from Riccardo Calafiori, confidently receiving with his back to goal to involve team-mates.
Here, by dropping deep, the Netherlands international creates space before exploiting it when getting the ball from Remo Freuler.
As in the above clip, Zirkzee is confident carrying the ball into the final third (he averages 1.5 carries per 90, 84th percentile, compared to Hojlund’s 1.06). He is also brave in possession, can strike with either foot, turn each way, and deceive opponents with feints and precise passing.
In the clip below, we can see Zirkzee showing these qualities against Cesena last August. Receiving the ball from Lewis Ferguson, he skillfully deceives Giuseppe Prestia with a turn before scoring.
Zirkzee is slightly overperforming his expected goals number, scoring 11 from 9.01 xG, at a rate of 0.37 per 90, which is less than Hojlund’s 0.51.
His role in creating passing networks for United will be important, as he can receive direct balls, bypass opposition presses, and lay it off to third-man runners.
As shown below, Zirkzee also has a huge variety of runs, predominantly in behind the defensive line or ahead of the ball.
Despite his qualities, transitioning to the Premier League could be a considerable step up from both the Belgian Pro League (where he spent time on loan at Anderlecht) and Serie A.
Gillian Kasirye
Season rating — 63/100
Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team
Zirkzee came of age under Thiago Motta at Bologna last season.
Under the Italian, who has now moved on to manage Juventus, he primarily played as a lone striker, and scored 11 league goals as Bologna achieved Champions League qualification for the first time. With five league assists in addition to those goals, he offered much more than a penalty-box presence.
(Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images)
While the numbers are impressive, his ability to knit attacks together will excite United fans. With the developing Hojlund leading the line, Zirkzee’s slaloming runs through the middle of the pitch, as demonstrated on several occasions last season when coming deep to receive the ball from the defence, can free up the Denmark international to focus on affecting the game closer to goal.
Elias Burke
Gaming rating — 78/100
Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability
According to Football Manager, Zirkzee is a top-half Premier League quality striker with the potential to develop into one of the league’s best in his position.
His current ability of 147 is comparable to that of Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson, who ended his 2023-24 debut Premier League season strongly to reach 14 goals from 35 league appearances after struggling to settle in its opening months. Interestingly, Sports Interactive’s comprehensive scouting network ranks him above Hojlund (140), who is two years his junior, at this stage.
While he is an improvement on United’s current options by FM24’s reckoning, his potential is worth getting excited about.
Zirkzee, who his Bologna manager Motta compared to Ronaldinho, has a potential ability of 165. This would rank him in a similar category to Gabriel Jesus (165) and Leroy Sane (168).
Elias Burke
Financial value rating — 61/100
A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club
Market value — 13/25
The £35million outlay on Zirkzee is considerable but not excessive. While he has yet to prove himself a consistent goalscorer at the elite level and only won his first senior cap from the bench in the Netherlands’ victory over Turkey in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals, Zirkzee, at 23, is considered a potentially world-class talent.
Compared to the £72million fee for Hojlund (or the £81m United paid Ajax for Antony in 2022), it appears to be fair market value — although the agent commission on this deal is higher than usual.
Squad cost — 14/25
Zirkzee fulfils United manager Erik ten Hag’s need for another forward, but there are plenty of needs elsewhere and this deal for upwards of £35million eats into their transfer budget. With additions still required in several areas of the pitch, United will have to sell players if they are to continue acting aggressively in the market.
Contract sensibility — 17/25
By offering a five-year deal, with an option of a further year, United are giving Zirkzee every chance to reach his potential at Old Trafford. This deal also ensures he remains under contract for some of his most productive years. If the transfer does not work, however, United could be burdened with a potentially expensive contract for a long time.
Resale value — 17/25
His lengthy contract means United will be in a strong negotiating position if a Premier League or European competitor were to make a move. And at £34million, there is a good chance United could expect to double or triple that if Zirkzee does develop into one of the world’s best forwards.
Elias Burke
Risk or reward? — 60/100
Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up in the future and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look…
For all his undoubted talent, Zirkzee is far from a safe bet.
His best goalscoring season so far came in 2021-22, when he found the net 16 times in 38 league matches for Anderlecht in Belgium’s top division. According to Opta Analyst, the Belgian Pro League ranks as the sixth best in the world, behind only the traditional top five in England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France.
Still, the jump from scoring goals in Belgium, or indeed, in Serie A, which is ranked two spots below the first-place Premier League in Opta’s estimations, would be considerable. Undoubtedly, increasing his scoring output is something United fans desire.
Zirkzee has also spent notable periods out of the side through injury. Since the 2020-21 season, he has not been fit for selection for three or more matches on six occasions, including the final 10 matches of that Serie A campaign with a knee issue while on loan at Parma.
Still, Zirkzee is a special talent worth taking a risk on.
If he fulfils his impressive potential, United will sign a player with a unique skill set, capable of scoring and creating from central areas.
Elias Burke
Overall rating: 337/500
(Top photo: Getty Images)
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