Europa glory now Stefano Pioli’s aim after AC Milan’s ‘bittersweet’ Champions League exit

The ‘cosiddette’ assumptions.

Paolo Maldini used to listen to them and cringe. He’d sit in on budget meetings to understand how much he had to spend in the transfer market. AC Milan’s executive team made “so-called assumptions” to serve as a baseline for the season. It is standard practice, a projection to budget on, not a statement (or a limit) on the club’s ambition. Milan responsibly built in “Champions League elimination, passing a round of the Europa League and qualification for the following season’s Champions League” to their financial forecasts. A five-time European Cup/Champions League winner as a player, it pricked at Maldini’s pride.

Being in the Europa League draw in Nyon on Monday is not where they wanted to be. The ‘cosiddette’ assumptions mean it won’t come as a shock to the finances although the disappointment after making the Champions League semi-finals in May and missing out on knockout stage cash is palpable.

Maldini will be following from home, an avatar for the club but no longer an executive following his dismissal by Milan’s owner Gerry Cardinale in the summer. Last night’s 2-1 win at St James’ Park, a first on English soil since Maldini skippered the team 18 years ago, was too little too late to stop Milan from going out of the Champions League.

“It’s bittersweet,” coach Stefano Pioli said. Milan spiritedly came back from behind just as they had done against Paris Saint-Germain at San Siro. “We have a few regrets,” Rafa Leao admitted. Group F was this season’s ‘group of death’ and yet Milan should, on the balance of play, be in the round of 16. On the eve of Wednesday’s game in Newcastle, they were the team to have most underperformed their expected goals (xG) in the Champions League.

Milan’s failure to qualify ultimately came down to chances missed earlier in the group stage. Pioli shook his head recalling “the first game”, an inexplicable 0-0 in the reverse fixture against Newcastle at San Siro. “For how we played, we had to win it,” he said. Milan fired off 25 shots to no avail as Nick Pope became the first English goalkeeper in Champions League history to make eight saves without conceding.

Then, at Signal Iduna Park, Milan made more chances than Dortmund only to achieve the same result. Another goalless draw. Instead of going into the double-header against PSG with six points, Milan had just two. They didn’t score at all until after the halfway stage of the group, going more than eight hours without finding the net in the competition.

All was not lost but the die seemed cast. When Samuel Chukwueze provoked an early penalty against Dortmund a fortnight ago, Milan once again had the opportunity to turn their Champions League campaign around. But Gregor Kobel saved Olivier Giroud’s spot kick, Dortmund went up the other end, won one of their own and converted it. As a moment, it summed up their season in Europe. Even in victory on Wednesday, Leao and the indomitable Fikayo Tomori both struck the post. “Today I was angry with Rafa,” Alessandro Florenzi said. “He should have finished the game with a brace. A player like him can’t miss chances like these.”

More ‘cosiddette’ assumptions. Leao was an early lightning rod for criticism after he attempted a backheel rather than a more straightforward finish in the reverse fixture against Newcastle. But anyone vituperating should be forced to watch Milan’s performances without him. He runs electricity through a team that can often appear flat. Still, Milan’s players need to take their share of the responsibility for not going through. A return of only three goals from 7.9 xG going into the last game is on them.

Pioli’s match plans evidently set Milan up to create and win although some of his selection decisions were puzzling. He started Tommaso Pobega over Tijjani Reijnders in the first game against Newcastle at San Siro then Yacine Adli in Dortmund who came on to excellent effect. Recently, Pioli’s choice to play one of his most devastating attacking players Theo Hernandez at centre-back rather than repurpose Rade Krunic or promote one of the kids from the academy has boggled the mind.

“We will do everything to win the Europa League,” Pioli insisted. Serial winners, Sevilla, will not get to defend their trophy after finishing bottom of their Champions League group, giving hope to everybody else. Perhaps after providing two finalists in the last four years, a Serie A side could lift this trophy for the first time since Parma in 1999. It is, incidentally, the only piece of UEFA silverware missing from the museum at Casa Milan.

Pioli’s stated ambition to be in Dublin for the final in May is another one of those ‘cosiddette’ assumptions that he’ll still be in the job. Had Milan gone out of Europe altogether, his position would have come under even greater scrutiny.

The team is nine points adrift of league leaders Inter. Tenth is closer than top spot and Pioli hasn’t been this at risk since 2020 when Ralf Rangnick was readying himself to take over. The 58-year-old has overcome crises before. This is Pioli’s third at Milan. He won the league after one and reached a Champions League semi-final after another. “I haven’t been able to get this team to the maximum of its potential,” Pioli conceded last night.

Would it be one of those ‘cosiddette’ assumptions to believe he can turn things around again?

(Top photo: James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)