It was in early March, during a conversation between staff at Burnley’s training ground, that a member of the coaching team offered what could be the perfect epitaph to the club’s Premier League campaign.
“We knew it was going to be difficult,” he said. “But not this difficult.”
Even though Burnley have only now been relegated back to the Championship — their fate confirmed by today’s plucky 2-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur — this was possibly the lowest moment of their season.
They had just lost 2-0 at home to Bournemouth and were 11 points from safety with 11 games remaining. The performance had been an improvement on the two previous games — defeats to Arsenal (0-5) and Crystal Palace (0-3) — but the outcome was the same.
Vincent Kompany’s reputation was also suffering. The reaction to him from some of the travelling support at Selhurst Park, in particular, had felt like a significant moment for a manager who had been lionised while winning the Championship title last season — although the visiting fans did sing his name after the final whistle at Spurs today.
Senior club sources — who along with all the people The Athletic spoke to for this article, wished to remain anonymous to protect relationships — were adamant his position was not in danger and that has been the case all season. Most managers with Burnley’s record this term would not have been granted that indulgence.
Since his arrival, Kompany has shaped the club in his image and is central to everything. He involves himself with all aspects of the club — from coaching to recruitment (he is Burnley’s No 1 selling point to potential arrivals) and the business side. When all is going well, that is positive. When it isn’t, it is problematic.
Sacking Kompany would have a huge impact on the playing squad too, with most signing for Burnley because of him. Kompany also shares a strong relationship with owner and chairman Alan Pace and the pair speak regularly. Ultimately, the club kept the faith in the hope that he could engineer a run of results.
Vincent Kompany applauds the Burnley fans at Spurs (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
Kompany did that; a ‘no-fear’ mentality leading to a sequence of one defeat in eight games between March and April. But just when safety looked within reach, destructive old habits crept back in and when Burnley failed to turn up in a must-win match against Newcastle last week, losing 4-1 at home, their fate was all but sealed.
On the face of it, to have avoided mathematical relegation until the penultimate weekend is respectable. In reality, however, it has been a slow march towards the drop by a side from whom much more was expected after their excellence in the Championship last season.
Burnley look set to finish below Luton — a fellow promoted side who spent significantly less — and would have been relegated earlier had Nottingham Forest and Everton not had points deducted for profit and sustainability rule (PSR) violations. It has not been good enough.
Last summer, Kompany was hot property.
Having guided Burnley to the Championship title, piling up 101 points in the process, plenty of other clubs were interested in hiring him. Both Chelsea and Tottenham held preliminary talks and five other Premier League clubs also made contact with Burnley, who ultimately persuaded him to sign a new five-year contract in May 2023.
Interest in Kompany from elsewhere has not been the case heading into this summer — which tells you everything about how his reputation has waned this season.
Having wrapped up promotion so early, Burnley should have been ideally placed to attack their Premier League return. Preparations were under way from January 2023, with detailed analysis being completed on every top-flight club to quicken the adaptation process.
The squad were given four weeks off after the end of the Championship season, although some had hoped for longer. Kompany’s belief was that if Burnley’s international players were still working while on duty with their countries, the rest should be too. So before Manchester City had even completed their treble in early June, those Burnley players who were not on international duty had returned for a “pre” pre-season trip to Portugal.
After a 10-day break, the players returned for pre-season proper. There was genuine optimism, with “cohesion” the buzzword, and while there were some early warning signs evident in four behind-closed-doors friendlies against lower-league opposition, the open friendlies offered more encouragement.
Heading into the campaign the message was clear. “Style is non-negotiable,” one club source told The Athletic last summer.
In hindsight, it should have been. Burnley’s early-season fixture list was daunting and, having stuck predominantly with the 4-3-3 system that had served them so well in the Championship, they were dominated and comfortably beaten by Manchester City, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea in five of their opening eight league games.
Manchester City handed out an early lesson to Burnley (Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)
Even then, there was no sense of panic. Burnley had taken four points from two of the ‘easier’ games, against Nottingham Forest away and Luton at home, and there was an acceptance that a period of learning and development would be required. The feeling was that it would take around 100 to 120 days to acclimatise the new players into the squad to Kompany’s methods.
In truth, Burnley looked undercooked and lacked experience, with no player capable of digging them out of trouble, and an inability to compete physically for 90 minutes. Multiple sources The Athletic spoke to at the time highlighted Kompany’s tactical naivety, stubbornness and inexperience, alongside the team’s lack of quality and soft underbelly.
Those concerns only heightened in October when the next two games ended in defeats to Brentford (3-0) and Bournemouth (2-1) — two matches Burnley had been targeting for possible victories.
Off the field, problems were also piling up. Burnley were without Lyle Foster at Bournemouth, the striker having taken time away from football to receive treatment for his mental health which had also affected him in the past. Burnley offered all the help and support they could and were praised for doing so, but losing the squad’s greatest goal threat (he had scored three goals and provided two assists in his first six games) was a blow. And it has shown: with one game left to play in the Premier League, Burnley’s top scorer is Jacob Bruun Larsen with six goals — Foster is joint-second with Zeki Amdouni (five).
Things had to change. November began with a home game against Crystal Palace and Kompany adapted his system, committing to the 4-2-3-1 in possession and 4-4-2 out-of-possession system, which allowed them to mix up their play and form a better defensive shape.
Burnley were the better team but still managed to lose 2-0, a costly mistake from Jordan Beyer, who lost possession on the edge of his own box, gifting Palace the opening goal.
Beyer’s error was costly against Crystal Palace (George Wood/Getty Images)
It has been a theme of the season, along with a chronic lack of quality in both boxes. Burnley did get better and more competitive, but their best remained not good enough, dropping points from decent positions and finding new, creative ways to lose.
The dedication and desire to find solutions from Kompany and his staff have never been in doubt. The manager and his coaches do long days, usually around 14 hours, involving detailed meetings, gym sessions and intense training sessions that are aimed at quickening the development of players. But that intensity has taken its toll on some.
Kompany places a large emphasis on performance in training; he rewards those who perform well. It is how Luca Koleosho emerged as a surprise starter. Not every player has treated training with the utmost importance and Kompany’s required work ethic and standards, but the mood at the training ground has largely remained calm. Kompany has tried to shield his players — often hitting out at refereeing decisions including against relegation rivals Nottingham Forest and Luton — and block out outside noise.
If the summer window of 2022 was a success, then 2023 was a failure. Around £90million ($112.7m) was spent and only £2m recouped — and the upgrades Burnley required were not made.
Some at the club were left frustrated that they were unable to invest more to help them compete. Burnley had a self-imposed ‘cap’ and were only prepared to spend more than £20million on a single player if they were considered a game changer, so business remained sensible and sustainable.
Burnley’s recruitment department has been reshaped and revamped since ALK Capital’s arrival, which included a number of senior scouts from the previous regime leaving the club in the months leading up to the summer window. Since his arrival, Kompany has had the final say on signings.
Senior club sources have repeatedly spoken about setting a two-year promotion plan when they were relegated in 2022. They surpassed those expectations with promotion in season one but it left them with a squad they felt needed significantly upgrading in every position.
Fifteen players arrived to add quality and strength in depth, including Beyer and Michael Obafemi’s loan moves becoming permanent.
Few additions had Premier League experience, however, with Burnley unable to pay the fees and wages for those types of players without long-term risks. It meant only Chelsea had a lower average squad age (23.6) than Burnley (24.7).
Future planning was factored in, including the worst-case scenario of relegation. But, internally, staff were pleased with the window when it closed.
Young players were prioritised, with only two signings — Nathan Redmond and Lawrence Vigouroux — aged 26 or over. There was genuine excitement about James Trafford, Amdouni and Aaron Ramsey arriving for a combined £45million, but none of these moves has worked out.
Nathan Redmond has not made a big impact at Burnley (Matt McNulty/Getty Images)
Not everybody was as surprised. One prominent agent spoken to by The Athletic described the summer spending spree as like somebody “playing Championship Manager”.
Almost as significant were those who did not arrive. Former loanees Nathan Tella and Ian Maatsen had been key to the Championship title win, but a return could not be secured for either.
Negotiations for Tella, who was open to returning, turned sour with Southampton as the summer progressed. It led to the controversial #FreeTella TikTok posted by chairman Pace’s daughter Ashlyn.
Maatsen had reservations about joining Burnley permanently at the start of the summer. A loan deal with an option to buy was agreed on the final day of the transfer window, but Maatsen, after talks with Kompany and a strong pre-season at Chelsea, decided to stay.
Tella and Maatsen’s decisions have been vindicated. Maatsen will play in the Champions League final for Borussia Dortmund, who he joined on loan in January, and Tella has played a solid role in Bayer Leverkusen’s Bundesliga title victory, with an invincible treble still possible.
Tella was invited as Pace’s guest for the game at Fulham in late December. He continued to be a good luck charm — Burnley won 2-0 — but they needed him on the pitch.
The failed pursuit of Maatsen left Burnley with only one senior left-back, Charlie Taylor. The recruitment department searched extensively for an alternative option, scouting over 200 different players, but none either fitted the profile Kompany was looking for or their demands were too high.
Of the summer arrivals, only Sander Berge, Dara O’Shea and Wilson Odobert have been regular contributors throughout. Koleosho would have been had he not picked up a serious knee injury in December.
Trafford and Amdouni lost their places in the starting XI. Ramsey and Beyer had multiple injury setbacks so couldn’t contribute, while Redmond barely featured and then required knee surgery in January. Bruun Larsen was in and out of the side but has ended the season well. Obafemi, Vigouroux, Hannes Delcroix, Mike Tresor and Han-Noah Massengo, however, barely left a mark.
Aaron Ramsey has struggled with injury (Matt McNulty/Getty Images)
Due to the busy summer, it has been a much-changed dressing room from the united one that cruised to promotion. Thirteen new additions plus the departures of big characters have seen the dynamic shift.
The atmosphere has changed in part due to poor results. Dressing-room sources insist belief has remained and there has been no mutiny but cliques have formed, and morale has dipped. After the 5-0 defeat to Arsenal in February, for example, a team meal was organised by some of the senior players but fewer than 10 members of the squad attended.
The handling of those who were crucial to Burnley’s promotion has irked some team-mates and supporters. Arijanet Muric, Manuel Benson and Anass Zaroury were the main trio who dropped out when Burnley returned to the top division, without being given a chance to prove themselves.
In the early stages of the campaign, Zaroury and Benson, despite signing new contracts, were on the periphery of training sessions and internal 11-v-11 matches. Benson has clocked 141 league minutes, but despite interest in January, stayed to fight for his place, while Zaroury played 149 minutes before signing for Hull City on loan.
Neither may have been good enough, but they never got a real opportunity — although, ironically, it was Benson who Kompany turned to in the final 20 minutes against Tottenham as his side searched for the goal which would have kept their survival hopes alive.
Despite Muric being named in the PFA Championship Team of the Season, Trafford was signed after an impressive summer with the England Under-21s. Muric had a stronger pre-season, but Trafford started the opening Premier League game against Manchester City and remained in goal for the next 27 matches.
Arijanet Muric lost his place at Burnley – but was that a mistake? (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Having explored every other possible tactical solution, Kompany finally bowed to the inevitable and dropped Trafford for Muric, who duly starred in Burnley’s 2-1 victory over Brentford in March.
He has remained in the starting XI since and has generally been an upgrade, despite those errors against Everton and Brighton.
Kompany’s job remains safe and in recent weeks he has repeatedly referenced next season. Unless a job opportunity arrives that he cannot turn down, the expectation is he will stay at Turf Moor.
The plan will be to replicate the success they had after their last relegation in 2022. Back then, they sold top assets and reinvested a portion of that money into rebuilding the squad.
Given the season Burnley have had this season, few players have enhanced their value. Berge is an obvious candidate alongside the talented Odobert. Koleosho, even with his injury, will generate interest. Trafford and Amdouni are also strong candidates to move on, albeit it is hard to see them attracting the fees Burnley spent on them.
Lorenz Assignon (Stade Rennais), David Datro Fofana (Chelsea) and Bruun Larsen (Hoffenheim) will return to their permanent clubs having arrived on loan, but clauses to make Mike Tresor (Genk) and Maxime Esteve’s (Montpellier) deals permanent will become active — an outlay of around £21million (€25m).
Several senior players are at the end of their contracts. Jack Cork, Charlie Taylor and Jay Rodriguez look set to move on. Johann Berg Gudmundsson has a one-year extension option, as does vice-captain Josh Brownhill. The latter’s option is expected to be triggered but he may still be sold.
It is set to be another busy summer. Work has already started on recruiting potential incomings, but Kompany also has to contemplate if he can move forward with his Championship winners such as Benson and Zaroury, who will be open to moves because of their lack of opportunities. Returning loanees including Connor Roberts (Leeds), Obafemi (Millwall) and Scott Twine (Bristol City) will be assessing their futures, too.
Kompany returns to the Championship with more experience and knows how to win at that level. But he realises that, for the first time at Turf Moor, he is under serious scrutiny.
With the club’s auditors issuing a warning about Burnley’s financial position in the latest set of accounts, pressure is on to secure a swift return.
(Top photo: Julian Finney/Getty Images)
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