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Hello! Are Manchester City without Rodri like the Chicago Bulls without MJ? We’re crunching the numbers…
Coming up:
🌟 Individual stars of the EPL
👿 Real Madrid’s ‘sinful arrogance’
🏟️ Frantic Barca stadium build
🏝️ Treasure Island training ground
Mining for MVPs: The meaning of ‘Messidependencia’
Every stellar sports team in history had its standout star. The Last Dance would have been The Last Rites had Michael Jordan’s final NBA season with the Chicago Bulls been ACL afflicted.
Then again, what would the Bulls’ legacy be without Scottie Pippen, or Dennis Rodman’s rebounds, or Steve Kerr sinking three-pointers? It’s something for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City to dwell on: yes, Rodri is goosed and no, Guardiola can’t gloss over it, but team sports are not about one person, even if that person is Michael Jordan.
A few hours ago, City confirmed Rodri suffered a knee ligament injury against Arsenal on Sunday. They haven’t established if he needs surgery, but Guardiola said last night the midfielder would be out “for a long time”. The battle to compensate for his absence starts here.
Reading The Athletic this morning, I learned a new word: Messidependencia. It was coined in Barcelona and it referenced the fact that, like the Bulls and Jordan, Barca’s hat hung heavily on Lionel Messi. By roughly the same token, Rodri is the hole City can’t fill — in many people’s eyes, City’s most valuable player (MVP). But statistically, does he rank as the footballer Guardiola needs most?
How we worked it out
Unless we’re talking about Messi, there’s no perfect scientific formula for assessing a club’s MVP. Every cog in the machine is connected. At City, for instance, the player with the lowest losing percentage in the Premier League isn’t Rodri (10.9 per cent), it’s Ruben Dias (nine per cent). Who knew?
The Athletic’s stats department decided to use this specific metric to establish the Premier League’s historical MVPs at individual clubs since the division’s inception in 1992. The results are pretty cool and, in some cases, surprising:
- Across 32 seasons and counting, nobody touches Dias. The Portuguese centre-back’s nine per cent loss figure is unrivalled.
- The top 10 list underlines Chelsea’s dominance in the mid-to-late 2000s, the Jose Mourinho era. Michael Ballack (9.5), Claude Makelele (9.7) and Ricardo Carvalho (10.4) are all in the top 10.
- I doubt you’d have guessed Liverpool’s top dog. It’s Joel Matip (10).
Here’s something particularly interesting. Only one name in the top 10 (see second chart, above) made his debut in the Premier League before 2003. To me, that’s indicative of the way in which dynasties like Mourinho’s at Chelsea or Guardiola’s at City made those clubs almost untouchable. The name of that outlier? Eric Cantona.
All hail King Eric
Cantona was the original Premier League character: enigmatic, combustible, brilliant. His long ban for kung-fu kicking a fan away at Crystal Palace in 1995 still resonates. His comeback from that suspension was a sensation. Some say he single-handedly won Manchester United the 1995-96 title.
United lost just 10.5 per cent of their games with Cantona in their line-up, making him their MVP. The goal above, a knockout volley in a 1-0 win at title rivals Newcastle in 1996, captures his golden patch perfectly.
But the point about that Newcastle match? Manchester United took a battering on the night. They were only still in the game when that goal went in because of a Peter Schmeichel goalkeeping masterclass. The glory was Cantona’s — but the unit did its bit.
News round-up
- Former Real Madrid and Manchester United defender Raphael Varane is a mere 31, but he’s retired from football today. A knee injury on his debut for Italian team Como was the end of the line. He bows out with a trophy cabinet to die for.
- Pol Ballus reports that Barcelona are in touch with Wojciech Szczesny about coming out of retirement to provide cover for the injured Marc-Andre ter Stegen. Szczesny, 34, called it a day after leaving Juventus in the summer.
- Sergio Rico, the former Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper, was lucky not to die in an accident involving a horse and cart last year. The 31-year-old made it back to full fitness and has now got himself a club in Qatar’s Stars League.
- The 2027 Champions League final was supposed to be played at Milan’s San Siro stadium. UEFA isn’t convinced the refurbishment of the ground or the surrounding area will be adequate by then, so the game will be moved.
- Two supporters have been given stadium banning orders for tragedy chanting during matches between Manchester United and Liverpool. Despite the clubs’ combined efforts, it’s been a struggle to stamp this out.
- Giorgio Chiellini, the long-time Italy international, can see where women’s football is going. He’s invested in Mercury/13, a group which aims to build a multi-club network of women’s teams.
- Mikel Arteta is very guarded about injury updates, but him saying Martin Odegaard is “a matter of weeks” from returning will be music to the ears of the Arsenal faithful.
📲 TAFC’s Arsenal whatsapp group: Every story, Handbrake Off podcast, breaking news, exclusives and behind-the-scenes with our reporters.
Show Viz: Haaland at 100 – a penalty-box predator
We’ll hold our hands up, The Athletic has been writing a hell of a lot about Erling Haaland lately, but what can you do? He won’t give it a rest, so we can’t either.
His clever finish against Arsenal at the weekend — that strike-it-sooner-than-David-Raya-expects effort — was his 100th goal for Manchester City. It’s taken him 105 games. I keep reminding myself that Guardiola got him for around £50million ($67m). His left foot alone is worth more.
TAFC isn’t going to let the landmark pass without showing you Thom Harris’ ace visual grid (above) of Haaland’s shooting and goalscoring for City. He’s the poacher’s poacher and if he’s in the 18-yard box on that left foot, say your prayers.
Barca’s building site: The race for $1bn Camp Nou to be ready
Barcelona’s new stadium project is a pricey venture in more ways than one. The Camp Nou build itself is costing £750million ($1bn), but playing at a temporary home last season set the club back £75m ($100m) in lost revenue.
Needless to say, they’re desperate to get the work finished, or the initial phase of it anyway. The ground won’t be ready to hold its full, 105,000 capacity until 2026, but the first part of the reconstruction is supposed to be complete before the end of this year, allowing crowds of 60,000 back in.
The Athletic’s Laia Cervello Herrero went to check out the building site and frankly, she’s far from convinced that late-2024 target will be met. You can see the images for yourselves. Barcelona are more optimistic and, after years of turmoil, a state-of-the-art stadium (see artist’s impression, above) is crucial in re-establishing their financial equilibrium.
But Barca wouldn’t be Barca without drama.
Mbappe 🤝 Bellingham: Duo combine for goal but Real Madrid ‘sinned in their arrogance’
Jude Bellingham, meet Kylian Mbappe. For the first time last night, the former assisted the latter for Real Madrid (above). They’ll be telepathic in no time, I reckon.
Their fun stopped there in a 3-2 home win against Alaves, though, because Mbappe went off with a thigh strain. Normally, Real and manager Carlo Ancelotti would ride the setback, but it’s the Madrid derby away at Atletico on Sunday and Diego Simeone’s side don’t take prisoners.
Real ran it close against Alaves, conceding twice in the latter stages. A source there told The Athletic’s Mario Cortegana that the team “sinned in their arrogance”, which is a beast of a quote and a full-on clip around the ear.
Maybe it’s what the squad need to hear. Barca are six wins from six to start the season before facing Getafe tonight. It’s off across town to Atletico next for Real and Mbappe might not play. Time to switch on.
Around The Athletic FC
(Photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)
Catch A Match (Times ET/UK)
Europa League: Bodo/Glimt vs Porto, 12.45pm/5.45pm — CBS, Paramount+, Fubo/TNT Sports; Manchester United vs Twente, 3pm/8pm – Paramount+, Fubo/TNT Sports; Nice vs Real Sociedad, 3pm/8pm — CBS, Paramount+, Fubo/TNT Sports.
Carabao Cup: Arsenal vs Bolton, 2.45pm/7.45pm – Paramount+/Sky Sports; Liverpool vs West Ham, 3pm/8pm — Paramount+/Sky Sports.
La Liga: Barcelona vs Getafe, 3pm/8pm — ESPN+, Fubo/Premier Sports.
Campeones Cup final: Columbus Crew vs Club America, 7.30pm/12.30am — MLS Season Pass, Fubo/Apple TV.
(Top photo: Eric Cantona at Manchester United in 1996; Ross Kinnaird/Allsport)
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