What does Pep Guardiola staying mean for Manchester City?

At a time of significant uncertainty around Manchester City and the Premier League, Pep Guardiola’s new contract is a major boost for the club.

The Brighton fans sang “you’re getting sacked in the morning” as City lost their fourth match in a row before the international break, but the quality of the manager and his employers’ absolute confidence in him meant that, far from scrutiny, in his two weeks off, he was handed a new deal that should see him stay at City for another two years.

Guardiola’s ability speaks for itself and has been reiterated by the latest City in-house documentary, but the very fact he remains in place is surely just as valuable given the change of sporting director, the possible departure of some key players and, of course, an impending outcome of the Premier League charges.

The news is not necessarily going to provide an immediate fix to City’s current issues on the pitch because, in the most part, the recent run of defeats has been caused by something that good vibes cannot fix: injuries. City may also be lacking in physicality and mobility without Rodri even when everybody else is fit and that might be something they feel they have to rectify in January.

And given those current fallibilities, games against Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool are far from ideal. When Guardiola signed a new deal in November 2020, his team had been struggling for a while and they did not immediately get better — they actually lost at Spurs in the very next game and it took a few weeks for things to click.

Crucially, things did click. That is what you tend to get with Guardiola; if not quite an assurance, then a confidence that things are going to turn out OK, and that is what City have secured for another season at least.

They may have to wait a little while for the boost to become evident due to those injuries, but it surely will.

The people at the very top of the club have got even more than they wanted (two years is beyond what most had even hoped for) and so have the fans. The players will know that the biggest driving force, the one that helps get the best out of them, will remain in place, and even those who may not be too enamoured with the manager will know that his power base is stronger than ever.

City generally manage to generate momentum from somewhere when they need it most: last season, they had the mid-season trip to Saudi Arabia for the Club World Cup, which allowed them to reset after a painful home draw against Crystal Palace.

The year before that, the announcement of the charges levelled against the club by the Premier League certainly seemed to galvanise the team when they were struggling for consistency.

So while the injury situation is an immediate concern (and one that should be clearing up soon, barring Rodri’s season-long absence), the benefits of Guardiola’s renewal are obvious in the medium and long term, not least when it comes to squad planning.

For starters, it might help in January if City try to strengthen the midfield — being able to say that Guardiola is there and fully motivated is going to help attract players in most cases (that is probably going to be the case when it comes to tying Erling Haaland down to a new deal, too).

City are set to change director of football in the summer, with Hugo Viana arriving to replace Txiki Begiristain, who has been there for 12 years. It goes without saying that not having to replace both the football director and the manager at the same time is probably going to be beneficial, but beyond that, there should be extra confidence that Guardiola staying in charge will help smooth over the transition above him, particularly when it comes to bringing new players into a relatively stable environment.

There is certainly the potential to make some big changes in the summer, chiefly because Kevin De Bruyne’s contract is set to expire, but also because there has been uncertainty around other key players in recent seasons, which may rear its head again, specifically regarding Ederson, Kyle Walker and Bernardo Silva — the latter has been open to an exit for years but, admittedly, never actually leaves.

Ilkay Gundogan only just rejoined in the summer and has 18 months left on his deal, but he has yet to recapture his best form and, if that situation were to continue, he would at the very least be looking at a reduced role next season.

City did not make big moves in the most recent window, largely because most of the key players did not actually go, so there was no need to replace them, but that could change next summer.

There is certainly a feeling, from the outside at least, that City could do with freshening things up in midfield and there could also be a situation where Jack Grealish’s future is up for discussion, as he missed much of last season through injury and off-field issues and has so far been unable to put that right.

There is also money to spend, which sounds obvious given City’s backing and the general perception of their spending, but they do not always utilise their vast fortunes. In fact, over the past five years, City have brought in far more money than they have spent in the transfer window. Guardiola personally has not wanted to bring too many players in either, partly because he does not want a crowded squad and the associated risk of unsettling those who do not play, and also because he keeps an eye on the club’s finances, too.

For example, a deal was close to being agreed for Celtic striker Kyogo Furuhashi in the summer, but it was Guardiola who decided against it, despite Julian Alvarez leaving for Atletico Madrid.

In that sense, there are no guarantees Guardiola’s continuation at City will bring major changes to the squad. In fact, it suggests the opposite, but it is tempting to believe that with Begiristain leaving and Guardiola now committed to the club for at least another season — possibly so he can help smooth over the transition — as well as the prospect of at least a couple senior players moving on, City might make some serious moves to ensure the club is in a strong position for the final years of the Guardiola era.

Quite possibly for the first years of the post-Pep era, too; Guardiola has always wanted to leave the club in a good position and that is surely the case now more than ever. Given Viana’s arrival — he will spend some time at the club before the end of the season to help the transition process — and Guardiola’s new deal, there will be a particular focus on putting City in a position to thrive when the manager finally does depart.

And then there are those charges. We are finally within touching distance of an outcome that will, of course, have major implications. If City were to be found guilty of some or many of the most serious charges, then a serious sanction would surely follow and that may limit their capacity or appetite to strengthen the squad.

Should they avoid any major sanctions and presumably remove the spectre of, say, relegation or an enormous fine, they may feel emboldened to spend the money that they have brought in in recent years.

In terms of what we can read into Guardiola’s new deal when it comes to the charges, it is fair to say that had he announced his departure this week, there would have surely been a widespread assumption that City were fearing the worst regarding the hearing. Much is made of his comments in 2022 when he said, “If you lie to me, the day after I am not here,” but on plenty of occasions since then, he has struck a more defiant tone, insisting he would be more determined than ever to stay, even if the club were relegated.

Given Guardiola is staying, logically there is social media speculation that City must be confident things will go their way.

In reality, Guardiola made his decision based on other factors — his energy to continue and the happiness of his family — because everybody on the football side at City has been going about their business on the assumption that the club has done nothing wrong and will not be punished. That has been the message from the top, not just since the charges were levelled last February, but since the first Football Leaks-led reports in 2018.

Business as usual, then, as Guardiola gears up for his next big challenge… Spurs on Saturday.

(Top photo: Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)