Victor Osimhen, like most strikers in the modern game, is tough to analyse.
He has some delectable traits: a bullet of a right foot, a leap to rival some of this year’s Olympians and a unique flair. However, with it come injury issues, a spotty penalty record (six misses from 20 attempts) and inconsistency.
Last season, we saw more of the latter from Osimhen in a struggling Napoli team that put together a horrendous title defence. After scoring 26 times in 32 Serie A matches in 2022-23, he scored just 15 goals in 25 matches last season. However, Osimhen’s stock has not dropped substantially, with The Athletic reporting this week that Chelsea are in negotiations with Napoli to sign him on a loan deal with an option to buy.
Here, we break down Osimhen’s profile to understand his playing style and whether 2022-23 was merely a flash in the pan.
Throughout his career, Osimhen’s biggest issue has been availability. He has played more than 27 league games only once in his career and scored 20 or more league goals just once — both in 2022-23.
The Nigerian benefited from the break due to the 2022 World Cup that season, scoring 17 of his 26 league goals in 21 matches after the tournament. He scored eight times in his 12 league appearances after the turn of the year last season and nine in 16 games in 2021-22.
The drop in Osimhen’s final product from 2022-23 can be attributed to issues on both player and system fronts. His shots per 90 minutes in Serie A fell to 3.9 (from 4.6), as did his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 (down to 0.5 from 0.7), while his npxG overperformance of 0.18 per 90 fell to a more sustainable 0.03.
Like his team, he was less proficient in the air, winning just 44 per cent of his aerial duels (down from 55 per cent). Osimhen was also required to play further away from the penalty area, with increases in mid-third touches (8.5 from 7.9) and drops in touches in the final third (15.4 from 18.8) and penalty area (6.9 from 8.1) per 90, which took him away from his bread and butter as a threat in the box.
A comparison of his smarterscout graphs, which give players a series of ratings from zero and 99 on various metrics, from the last two seasons reflects those statistics. But it also indicates that he suffered a drop in aspects such as link-up play, defensive intensity, and ball retention. The mid-season Africa Cup of Nations and nagging fitness issues were also factors.
A deeper dive into the statistics supports the argument that 2022-23 was an overperformance in more ways than just the ones mentioned above.
In 2022-23, Osimhen ended only 8.5 per cent of his league outings with less than 0.5 expected goals. His three other years in Serie A paint a vastly different picture as he did the same in 62.5 per cent of games in 2020-21, 52 per cent in 2021-22 and 44 per cent in 2023-24.
This has team elements to it, concerning the quality of chances Napoli created. However, Osimhen is a high-volume shooter and some of his shooting stats indicate that he contributed to his regression as well.
Osimhen recorded more than three shots in 56 per cent of his league games in 2022-23, with that number falling to 44 per cent last season. He also had six Serie A games without a shot on target in 2023-24, the same as in 2022-23, in seven matches fewer. This was, however, an improvement on his previous two seasons (20 games with no shot on target out of 51).
The 2022-23 season also saw him achieve a weirdly perfect balance; he underperformed and overperformed in comparison to his xG in 16 league games apiece. In his three other seasons in Napoli, he underperformed in comparison to his xG in 40 out of 67 league games, including in 13 of 25 league games last season.
A look at his shot evolution map from 2020-21 to 2023-24 also provides interesting insights. Osimhen was often in the perfect position for a striker in 2022-23 to maximise his chances of scoring, while also occasionally netting from narrow angles. His runs in behind were timed perfectly, while his ability to peel away from his marker was unchallenged.
However, last season, defences managed him better and forced him wider to the right, taking their chances. Osimhen’s method to remedy this was to try and punish them anyway, but as the angles got narrower, he often cut a frustrated figure as his shots were blocked, drifted wide of the far post, or sailed high.
The timing of his runs was also off; he was caught offside 1.6 times per 90 in the league last season, compared to 1.1 in 2022-23. When he did break through, Osimhen failed to put away chances, such as the one below against Frosinone.
Contrast this with the goal below against Sassuolo in 2022-23, and his composure in a comparable situation stands out.
Osimhen’s lack of adaptability extended to peeling away from defenders and attacking open space, which he did extremely well in 2022-23, such as in the goal below against Sampdoria from a move he starts. Last season, he often operated between the centre-backs, who marked him much more closely, while Napoli’s crossing quality also dipped.
As the frustrations mounted on and off the field, thanks to Napoli’s infamous TikTok clips, Osimhen also seemed to lose focus. He missed two out of the five penalties he took in the league last season, while also collecting more cards (six yellow, one red) than in 2022-23 (four and zero).
The timing of his headers worsened too. In 2022-23, he often waited for the ball to get closer before starting his jump, allowing him to power it low and hard, as seen in the clips below…
… unlike 2023-24, where his jumps were often a millisecond too early or late, resulting in loopy or misdirected shots.
Lastly, Osimhen’s passing, which remains a work in progress, also seemed to marginally regress. He completed only 69 per cent of his 14.0 attempts per 90 in the league in 2022-23, with that falling to 67 per cent on 13.1 attempts last season. His key passes per 90 fell from 1.2 to 1.0, while his shot-creating actions from live-ball passes dropped from 1.9 per 90 to 1.3.
There are caveats, though…
Osimhen’s struggles last season were not down to him alone. Losing Luciano Spalletti, renowned for making good strikers great, was a major blow. Napoli’s title-winning campaign was built as much on attack (league-best 77 goals scored) as on defence (league-best 28 goals conceded) and selling Kim Min-jae to Bayern Munich hurt them.
As the table below shows, Napoli regressed in attack.
How Napoli regressed last season
| Season | Non-penalty goals | Shots on target | Passes into final third | Goal-creating actions | Touches in final third |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
1.8 |
5.6 |
43.1 |
3.5 |
198.6 |
|
2023-24 |
1.3 |
5.2 |
39.7 |
2.3 |
179.8 |
There was also a visible drop in defensive intensity. Their aerial duel success rate (55 per cent in 2022-23 to 49 per cent in 2023-24), recoveries (53.3 to 44.9 per 90) and interceptions (7.6 to 6.3 per 90) in the league fell. Napoli were less compact and simply did not seem to have the same desire and determination to close down spaces, aspects that served as their foundations in 2022-23.
In attack, Serie A defences found a dimmer switch for the electric Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, leading to a fall in goal involvements (25 in 2022-23 to 19 in 2023-24). Kvaratskhelia was still one of Napoli’s best players but was made to work much harder throughout the campaign, scoring just once in his final eight league games.
In midfield, Andre-Frank Anguissa was not the same two-way force he was in 2022-23, playing 300 fewer minutes in the league and recording just two assists and no goals (down from three goals and five assists in 2022-23).
Where does that leave us?
Osimhen is a prototype centre-forward in many ways. He is a high-volume shooter, adept presser, and aerial threat with pace to burn and the ability to effectively lead a press. However, last season was a clearer reflection of him as a player than 2022-23.
At 25, Osimhen is a few years from the typical peak age for a striker, which suggests there are layers to his game he either hasn’t unlocked or simply hasn’t shown regularly enough.
He has yet to entirely exit the “on his day” and “deadly when fit” bubbles that we have come to see far too often in football.
(Top photo: Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images)
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