Tosin Adarabioyo to Chelsea: The Athletic 500 transfer ratings

June 14, 2024

Tosin Adarabioyo has joined Chelsea on a free transfer after leaving Fulham.

Our writers — who are experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finances — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers against five categories, each given a score out of 100 to reach a total out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained here.

Below is our ranking for this move.

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Tactical fit: 79/100

A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically using Sentient Sports’ bespoke tactical fit model, explained by our tactical expert.

Tosin is a solid addition to Chelsea as Enzo Maresca’s system involves his centre-backs being adept at ball-carrying and passing, both of which are among Tosin’s strengths – unsurprising given his time at Manchester City.

Last season, he averaged 5.34 long passes per game for Fulham, comfortably ahead of Axel Disasi (3.67), Levi Colwill (4.57) and Benoit Badiashile (4.13). His numbers are much closer to those of Maresca’s most-used centre-back pairing at Leicester of Jannik Vestergaard (5.33) and Wout Faes (5.68).

Tosin’s 0.50 switches per game last season was also over the Premier League centre-back average of 0.35. Here’s how his abilities opened up space for Fulham against Newcastle.

After receiving the ball, Tosin confidently carries it forward into the space ahead of him, all the way to the final third, before switching the ball to Willian in space.

Tosin can also play line-breaking passes, such as this one to Andreas Pereira against Nottingham Forest, whose defence are left scrambling. Pereira crosses the ball into the box for Rodrigo Muniz, whose header is wayward.

While Tosin largely operated as a right-sided centre-back for Fulham last season, his both-footedness means he can play on the left too, allowing Chelsea to deploy him alongside Disasi. He can snuff out danger defensively, averaging 1.39 interceptions per 90, and committed zero errors leading to a shot (level with Colwill; better than Disasi’s 0.07 and Badiashile’s 0.13).

On paper, Tosin projects to be an improvement on Chelsea’s current options and should fit well into Maresca’s system. The key question around this transfer involves how he adapts to high expectations at Stamford Bridge after a middling season with Fulham.

Anantaajith Raghuraman

Season rating: 59/100

Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team.

Tosin had a mixed season at Fulham. It started on the sidelines, as he required surgery for a groin injury that contributed to a disruptive summer 2023 amid transfer speculation.

When he returned to the team in December, he made an impact, helping Fulham to back-to-back clean sheets in successive 5-0 wins. He was a standout performer as Fulham reached the semi-final of the Carabao Cup for the first time, beating Everton on penalties. Tosin put away the winning spot kick.

He remained a regular starter for Fulham, but his form just tailed off into March before he was dropped from the squad in April. This followed confirmation he would leave the club once his contract expired. In the end, he made only 25 appearances in all competitions and only 18 starts in the league.

Peter Rutzler

(Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

Gaming rating: 69/100

Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability.

By Football Manager’s estimations, Tosin is a Premier League quality centre-back with the potential to improve.

His current ability on FM24 is 135, which ranks him in the bottom half of Premier League starting centre-backs. According to Sports Interactive’s scouting team, he is of a similar level to Lloyd Kelly (133), the English-born centre-back who has just signed for Newcastle United after spending five years with Bournemouth.

He has a potential ability of 140, placing him on the current level of Brentford’s Ben Mee and Everton’s James Tarkowski. While it is not the superstar profile Chelsea have often recruited over the past two decades, FM grades Tosin as a very capable defender with the capacity to fulfil a squad role at a club competing in European competition.

Elias Burke

Financial value rating: 68/100

A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club.

Market value: 21/25

There is much for Chelsea to appreciate in Tosin’s status as a free agent after all the excess in the transfer market in recent windows, even if his top-level pedigree is yet to be proved. Chelsea have picked up a useful asset for nothing, exploiting Fulham’s inability to tie Tosin down to a new long-term deal.

Squad cost: 17/25

Chelsea were never likely to spend as they did last summer as PSR limits begin to bite — and the capture of Tosin reflects the enforced new approach. Disasi, for example, cost £38.5million last summer. So Tosin’s transfer adds depth to the defensive line while leaving funds available to strengthen elsewhere.

Contract sensibility: 16/25

Tosin’s negotiating position was strengthened as a free agent and a contract thought to be worth more than £100,000 a week triples his old Fulham salary. The four-year contract equates to an outlay of over £20million, but the absence of a transfer fee dilutes any risks attached.

Resale value: 14/25

Tosin is 27 in September, so no longer a rookie. A four-year deal takes the defender into his thirties, but even if his Chelsea move falls flat, there will likely be an ability to move Tosin on for a decent sum.

Philip Buckingham

Risk or reward? 80/100

Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up in the future and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look.

This a transfer with few risks for Chelsea. It even avoids a mega-long contract.

First, it is a free transfer, which is good for PSR requirements and means limited financial risk. Tosin is homegrown, too, and therefore an asset for European squad registration rules. Even on a basic level, Tosin does not need any time to settle in. He is moving a mile down the road from Fulham.

His new coach, Maresca, is a disciple of Pep Guardiola and worked as his assistant at Manchester City until last year. Tosin, meanwhile, spent 18 years in the academy at City and his ball-playing characteristics make him a good fit. Tosin has been an important part of Fulham’s back line over the past four years and is well accustomed to the Premier League. At 26, he is close to his prime and adds some well-needed height to the Chelsea defence.

No transfer is guaranteed to succeed. Tosin has not played regularly at senior level for a club in Europe, it must be noted, but there are plenty of signs that suggest this one could work out.