Close your eyes and picture a football scout.
He — and it will always be a he — will be over 50, probably dressed in an overcoat and flat cap, and sat in a darkened corner of a far-flung stadium, scribbling observations in a battered notebook.
But this image of talent-spotters as football’s wizened old-timers is outdated. In a sport in a constant state of flux, few sectors are undergoing such a sudden and disruptive transformation as scouting.
The development of data-driven modelling, an increasingly globalised marketplace and, most recently, the advent of artificial intelligence are delivering a revolution in how clubs identify and assess possible signings.
And, as always with revolutions, the process is proving turbulent. Three Premier League clubs — Liverpool, Tottenham and Brighton & Hove Albion — have overhauled their recruitment departments this year while Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the co-owner of Manchester United, recently criticised the club’s data capabilities, suggesting their own root-and-branch review may not be far away.
Amid this turmoil, and ahead of the January transfer window, The Athletic has canvassed the views of 40 scouts from across the Premier League and EFL to test the temperature of the industry. Eight of them have spoken at length for this article, all doing so anonymously to protect working relationships.
The findings illustrate shifting, less predictable times. Just 10 per cent of the scouts that filled out our survey said the advent of data use had not impacted their role. The clear majority (72 per cent) consider its introduction as positive.
But a common concern is that theirs is likely to become a shrinking industry. Almost half of respondents were unsure if they would still be working as a scout in five years.
In a topic that will be analysed in greater detail tomorrow, two-thirds of scouts also believe the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) will be the next advancement to impact their role.
In an industry that employs thousands, a sample size of 40 scouts should not be considered scientific. But the findings of The Athletic‘s survey and the weight of anecdotal evidence are enough to confirm that the changes in football scouting are only just beginning — and are likely to have far-reaching consequences.
Every club can decide just how much they wish to allow data to shape their recruitment strategy, but behind these debates are what one top-flight scout calls “culture clashes”.
“For the older scouts, their ability to stay in the game is going to come from how they use the data side,” he says. “The ones who don’t listen are the ones being phased out.”
It means that the stereotypical scout mentioned above is an increasingly rare presence at English football stadiums — a trend that is likely to please as many people as it will dismay.
A player’s statistical output might not be the decisive factor in settling a transfer decision, with final calls still shaped by those picking apart performances, but the numbers increasingly structure the search.
“There’s been a great deal of complacency in the scouting industry,” says one figure from an established Premier League club. “It’s come from a lack of respect for what data can provide and also a lack of understanding of what data can offer.
“There’s also been a lack of best practice within the industry. At the moment, scouting opportunities are shrinking because the belief in what the scouts can produce has slipped away quite considerably in the last few years as the data has taken on greater significance.”
It is that quest for the middle ground, though, that has caused friction and separation.
“It’s a shifting time,” says one chief scout at an EFL club, who has previously worked in the Premier League. “I know a lot of scouts who in the last six to 12 months have been cast aside. To me, that’s a loss to the game. They have been part of a cull.”
Because they’re old-school?
“Because they’re different,” he adds. “You can call it old-school but I would say different to what a lot of clubs want now. They bring a lot of skills. It’s intuition, it’s an eye, it’s gut feeling, experience and knowledge. That type of data is getting put to one side and the numbers are now flavour of the month. There’s room for both but to me, one can’t exist without the other.”
One former scout, who worked for clubs in the Premier League and Championship, brings up a scene from Moneyball, the film that details Billy Beane’s transformation of the Oakland A’s baseball team through data analysis. In it, Beane, played by Brad Pitt, sits in front of his scouting team and presents their new strategy. Very little else matters so long as “he gets on base.”
“Our meetings were like that, with the old boys putting their thoughts in and not really being interested in the rest,” he laughs.
“You go to games now and predominantly the scouts would all be young lads. The analysis types, the ones on their laptops, young kids who are more data-driven. Some can be excellent, though. You’d still have the old boys (attending games) but there’s definitely less of them.”
Billy Beane’s ‘Moneyball’ system transformed the way football used scouting (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
It is a non-scientific snapshot of the industry but a 60 per cent majority of respondents to The Athletic’s survey were aged between 26 and 45. Only a fifth formerly played professional football.
“I’ve made sure in our department that, because I’ve never played the game, I wanted someone who had,” says one chief scout at an EFL club. “They can relate to different experiences.
“You need to get a balance. I like to know someone who has played the game and has different experiences from mine.
“I’ve been at clubs previously when the scouts came in it was like Dad’s Army but they don’t half find some good players. The data has been coming for a long time but we’ve reached a point where it’s almost taken over for some clubs.”
Football is a game of trends and the successes of data-driven clubs in the transfer market such as Brighton and Brentford, have made them the ones to follow. Thousands of players from all corners of the globe can be monitored and whittled down using statistical analysis, allowing clubs to draw up shortlists based on the data.
Scouts are still employed and valued (Brentford have 15 on their books) but their skill set has needed to evolve. Filling out a scouting report and placing it on a manager’s desk is no longer the process.
“There was a need to change,” says one experienced head of recruitment at an EFL club. “If we get transfers wrong now, then ultimately it’s millions of pounds. There’s got to be a blend of video, data, eyes and feel and character references to the nth degree.
“What we’re all trying to do ultimately is to find the undervalued talent. Let’s say a club wants to sign a player, you can’t watch all of his games ahead of signing him. But what data allows is for you to judge a player over 50 or 100 games. As long as the data is set in the right way, around positional and team needs, it helps you find the players that can help you. You can’t have 100 scouts out every week because the cost is so high.”
The vast majority of scouts spoken to for this article see the help that data has delivered. They are positive about its influence, rather than seeing it as a threat.
“Data used in the right way has certainly helped,” says an EFL club’s chief scout. “Brentford and Brighton, two of the clubs you’d associate most with being data-driven, have always had scouts at games still. They’re not passing judgement on laptops. Data can be misused if you’re not applying a context to it. There’s got to be a ‘Why?’ element to it.”
Tony Bloom, the Brighton owner, recently overhauled the club’s scouting department (Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)
Technological advances, too, have made the scouting world smaller. More players are typically watched via online platforms, such as Wyscout — where games can be dissected in forensic detail — than in the flesh across most weeks.
“When I started 20 years ago, we’d write off to a guy in Germany and request a list of DVDs he’d download from a satellite dish and send over in a week or two,” says one Premier League scout. “Wyscout brought a big change but the data side has been a massive new thing in the last decade or so.
“You can now pretty much watch 80-90 per cent of what you’d need to watch at the click of a button the next day. It’s been a huge gamechanger. I probably do close to 80 per cent of my scouting now through videos.”
That reality has forced working practices to alter. Scouts used to often be the first point of contact for targets, speaking with agents and counterparts to understand a player’s attainability. That influence can still be there but it has diminished.
The great unknown is where scouting will be in 10 years. Brighton’s overhaul in November saw several scouts made redundant, with a move away from their model of position-specific scouting. Premier League leaders Liverpool, however, have advertised for scouting roles in recent weeks.
“It’s going to be smaller departments,” predicts one Premier League scout. “In a bid to be everywhere, I think a lot of clubs have overhired. You’re going to have to be multiskilled and, eventually, those older scouts will be phased out. A Premier League club is going to look increasingly like an EFL club. They’ll need to be more efficient.”
An experienced EFL chief scout has the same misgivings. “There’s part of me that’s uneasy with just using data and video, and signing players solely on that,” he says. “You have to dig deeper, try to understand the personality and what they’re all about. That’s traditionally been the work of scouts.
“Maybe before you’d have one analyst and 10 scouts, now it’s going to be 10 analysts and one scout.
“Clubs like Brighton and Brentford have elevated themselves through scouting. Look at a club like Manchester United with 70-odd scouts. Do you think that’s really the future? I can’t see it.”
For all the flux, scouting remains a job that plenty covet and enjoy. You are the talent spotters and, as such, inevitably spend a life watching football. It is common to spend four or five days of the week attending football matches, filing reports and building up opinions.
Forty per cent of survey respondents said they will typically work six-day weeks and a fifth told us they will work, on average, more than 60 hours a week.
All that means almost a third of scouts taking part said they will attend more than 120 games a season and six out of 10 will watch that same figure again on recorded games or streams. It is worth noting that a significant number of scouts to fill out the survey held part-time roles or that number would inevitably have been higher.
The best bit of the job?
“The people you meet, the community of scouts you get to know, is the best part,” says one Premier League scout. “You’re competing against one another but you make good friends. Football is a small place but there’s nothing better than when you’ve played your part in bringing a player in. That feeling is really good.”
Another operating at the highest level concurs. “I absolutely love it,” he says. “I guess it’s the involvement in the game, the participation at such a high level in world football. Even if you’re a small contribution, it’s very rewarding.”
The overwhelming majority of scouts surveyed by The Athletic said they felt valued by their club. That contrasts markedly with the mood of support staff, including strength and conditioning coaches, physios and masseurs, previously surveyed by The Athletic last year.
Scouting, on the surface, feels like a more content world.
Over a third said their annual earnings were more than £50,000; that figure is dwarfed by many who work in football but is still well above the UK national median salary of £37,430, according to the most recent figures published by the Office of National Statistics.
It is still a curious quirk — and perhaps an indication of football’s draw — that many scouts working for clubs below the Premier League do so without pay. Some will cover mileage and expenses but it is common for plenty of scouts to effectively work as volunteers, with admission to games and a branded jacket the only tangible return.
“You’ve got your foot half in the door but, because you’ve got so few full-time roles, then it’s very difficult for that to lead somewhere,” says one scout at a League One club, who estimates reports can take roughly 15 minutes to write up on every player they have been asked to track.
“I’m a volunteer so I don’t get anything. No mileage or expenses. That’s common at League One and League Two level. You’ll get a few (clubs) paying expenses but a lot aren’t on a wage. Maybe the club sells it as an internship where you’re going to games and getting experience but really it’s the chance to go and watch a game on a Saturday, isn’t it?”
And that is just it; something between a simple pleasure and a privilege. Understanding family and friends is also a must. One chief scout, employed by an EFL club, says he has just spent four out of five midweek days attending a game ahead of a 300-mile round trip for another on the Saturday.
“You have to be comfortable with spending many hours away from home,” says another scout at a Premier League club. “You’re driving home at 10pm on a night and it can be a lonely life. It’s almost Stockholm syndrome. Most scouts get to May and say they’ve got one more season left in them but they get to July and they can’t wait for the season to start. That’s definitely a thing but it’s something I love.”
(Top photo: iStock; design: Dan Goldfarb)
Read the full article here