The State of Punditry – part 1: How UK TV football analysis has changed – and is it better?

Not a single afternoon of Sunday football goes by without social media unleashing its collective fury at what people are seeing on television.

Accusations of bias, rabid claims of incompetence and wild disagreements with opinions… no, not refereeing, but punditry.

Opinions on, well, the opinions being offered seem to generate almost as many comments as those on the football itself.

Peter Drury’s commentary will be trending, clips of some Gary Neville analysis or a cutting remark from Roy Keane will be edited and posted within minutes of being broadcast and shared by millions. Punditry is an industry that has grown as fast as football itself, with analysts now expected to set the agenda as much as respond to it.

For proof, look no further than the recent coverage of Gary Lineker’s impending departure from Match of the Day — the flagship football programme of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) — which dominated not just the UK’s sports headlines, but its news bulletins too.

Lineker’s departure seems as good a time as any to pause and reflect on the state of the punditry game — how and why it looks like it does, how it’s done across the world and what the future might hold.

Over a three-part series this week, The Athletic will attempt to answer those questions, through conversations with industry sources, some of whom spoke anonymously to protect their positions or relationships.

The numbers are startling.

Precisely 200 Premier League matches are on UK screens this season (128 on Sky Sports, 52 on TNT Sports and 20 on Amazon), which will increase to 276 in 2025-26 (Sky Sports with 215 and TNT with 52).

This season, the EFL is showing 824 live matches across the Championship, League One and League Two via a new domestic Sky Sports deal that includes every single match from the Carabao Cup and EFL Trophy.

TNT shows an eye-watering (their words, not The Athletic’s) 529 European matches through its coverage of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

The above matches total will be 1,864 per season from 2025-26 onwards. Throw in FA Cup games on the BBC and ITV, international football on domestic channels or ViaPlay, the Bundesliga on Sky, La Liga on Premier Sports, Serie A on TNT or the National League on DAZN, plus many more European and worldwide matches at senior or even youth level, and you are looking at thousands of live games every year (and yet FIFA still can’t find a broadcaster for the Club World Cup).

There were just 18 First Division games broadcast on ITV in 1991-92, the final season before the launch of the Premier League and its big increase of live games on Sky Sports (live Italian football also began in 1992 on Channel 4).

There is a seemingly infinite increase in the amount of football on screen and there is also much more to say. As Lineker nears the end of his lengthy stint as host of Match of the Day, it’s interesting to watch an early edition of his tenure, many of which are available on YouTube.

The basic premise of showing highlights of the Saturday games with Lineker and two guests in the studio remains, but there are a few marked differences.

In a 70-minute show in early 2000, 25 minutes are dedicated to the main opening game of Bradford City versus Watford (a relegation clash). The analysis from Trevor Brooking, the former West Ham United midfielder, focuses on a bit of chat about poor defending backed up by clips with some very basic graphics and replays of a controversial penalty, but there are no stats whatsoever.

The rest of the show comprises a second main match (Aston Villa 0-0 Chelsea, another 22 minutes) and brief highlights of six other matches, four of which don’t get any mention at all from the studio guests (Brooking and ex-Liverpool and Scotland defender Alan Hansen).

Mainstream football coverage just wasn’t ready for deep, tactical chat yet. ITV, a UK commercial broadcaster, launched its Tactics Truck, manned by former Chelsea midfielder Andy Townsend, when it took over highlights duties a year later and the idea was widely derided.

Sky Sports led the way for innovation with studio analysis, multiple camera angles and imaginative experiments, including Player Cam, where viewers could spend a match watching an individual player, or FanZone, where fans from the two opposing teams offered an alternative commentary. It raised the bar again via Monday Night Football (MNF) and Neville, whose detailed and insightful analysis set a new standard.

Other pundits and co-commentators have raised the bar further, in line with the rise of data and analytics that clubs are now using so extensively to shape their tactical approaches.

But, with mass increased coverage, has football caught up with the demands of the viewer in the quality of observations and analysis being offered?

“To be a regular Premier League specialist, you have to have played at the top for a long time and be a household name, or be someone who’s very, very good at your job,” says Dave Edwards, the ex-Wales and Wolverhampton Wanderers midfielder and now co-commentator and pundit for a variety of broadcasters.

“People like Neville and Keane, they’ve been in that position on the pitch and can back up what it’s like in those high-pressure moments in the big games.

Gary Neville (left) and Jamie Carragher took punditry in a new direction (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

“Then you see people like Lee Hendrie doing more Premier League games now, or co-commentators like Don Goodman and Andy Hinchcliffe, who are excellent.

“It’s such a competitive industry to get into. Getting your foot in the door while you’re still relevant is key but after one or two years, you’ve got to be there on merit.

“When you finish football, you’re a footballer who does broadcasting, but you need to transition into a broadcaster who used to play football as soon as possible.”

Making that shift takes repeated TV appearances, feedback, training and preparation. Lots of it. Former players who don’t put the hours in will offer the viewer a very different experience, but that can be a personal preference on their part too and not necessarily one that leads to bad punditry.

You don’t get the impression Keane — unlike, say Jamie Carragher — puts in hours of research into a team’s strengths and weaknesses before a match he is covering. Yet both are popular and good at what they offer, be it withering put-downs or detailed analysis.

In a piece looking at how Amazon pull together their live Champions League broadcasts, Clarence Seedorf told The Athletic this month that he doesn’t do much prep “because every game is different”. Seedorf, a four-time Champions League winner, believes matches can turn out drastically different from how a manager prepared for them to be, so he deals with his analysis in the same way.

Frank Lampard, who was on the same Champions League show as Seedorf and also spoke to The Athletic, had studied Bayer Leverkusen’s defence in the days leading up to their match away at Liverpool.

“You want to make it concise and understandable for the person at home, but that is not a million miles away from management, when you are building into a game with players,” he said. “You want to be very clear, get to the point, and show them the things you see.”

Either way, knowledge and delivery are still a cornerstone of what the viewer wants. Pundits can probably get away with some cliches or regurgitated opinions but a basic lack of knowledge is unforgivable — particularly when the viewer has never been better informed.

For example, during TNT Sports’ coverage of Fenerbahce versus Manchester United last month, host Jules Breach asked Paul Scholes what he thought of Fenerbahce forward Dusan Tadic, who Jose Mourinho had praised for his performances this season at the age of 35.

“Erm, well, haven’t seen loads of him, obviously Turkish football…” was Scholes’ reply.

When Breach light-heartedly queried if Scholes wasn’t a fan of Turkish football, he said: “Is it on telly, Turkish football? I don’t know.” He then went on to say that Tadic was one of the former Ajax players “we”, as in Manchester United, didn’t buy.

Paul Scholes (left) and Owen Hargreaves are regulars on TNT Sports (Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)

Alongside him, another former United midfielder, Owen Hargreaves, did offer more insight on the Turkish side. However, in a segment about Youssef En-Nesyri, the Morocco and former Sevilla forward, Scholes and Hargreaves said the 27-year-old would be a ‘handful’ four times between them in 39 seconds.

This is not to pick on Scholes and Hargreaves. Punditry is hard — really hard. Mistakes will always be made and the difficulties and pressure of trying to provide insight live on television while directors or producers talk into your ear shouldn’t be underestimated. That said, a lack of research into one of the two teams you are being paid to analyse is a very outdated premise in 2024.

Given the increase in casual football followers — or diehard fans who still have absolutely no interest in expected goals, let alone field tilt — there is still a place for those who point out, ‘They just wanted it more, Clive’, or talk of one team needing to show more passion than the other, or handle the pressure better. You can insert your own name of many pundits who still do this.

But the rapid increase in football data, most of it freely available for people to research and access themselves, means a growing audience is scoffing at what is now deemed entry-level football chat.

That causes conflict over what makes good punditry, especially for big matches. If you want thorough, data-based analysis or something basic, if you want biased views or completely neutral opinions, you can find all of it via your chosen channel or website, but when it comes to live coverage there is no option to go elsewhere.

Edwards believes doing justice to fans of the teams involved is vital.

On average, he will do a day and a half of prep if he is covering an EFL game where his knowledge of either team is lacking. That will involve watching clips of players on Wyscout, an online database of extensive footage which is used through the industry including by clubs and scouts, as well as researching data, systems, average positions of players and form guides on websites like Transfermarkt and Sofascore. He will listen to podcasts on the clubs involved and seek out staff, players or a local journalist.

“It’s obvious when people have done their research and when they haven’t,” he says. “Perhaps the older generation tend to take the viewpoint that they’re an ex-pro and will turn up and say it as they see it, but you can’t really get away with that.

“I might look at clips to see if a winger prefers going on the inside or outside of a defender, or if a centre-back likes to play out, which is why a 30-minute conversation with an assistant manager is invaluable compared to scouring through hours of match footage to find something I want.

“I did Exeter versus Lincoln at the weekend and the majority of people watching weren’t browsing through the channels and then sticking with the game, but you would get a lot of Lincoln fans who weren’t making the (240-mile) journey. They would expect me to know as much about Lincoln’s team as they do, which involves a lot of work.

“Realistically, I only use about 20 per cent of my prep, especially if it’s a busy game that involves a lot of live talking points, like goals and red cards. But I’d be scared stiff if I had no notes to rely on.”

The punditry game has changed almost beyond recognition in the last decade. We now incessantly analyse the pundits. Sky will post Neville’s best punditry moments, or footage of him commentating, or his best commentary noises (this genuinely was a video posted yesterday).

A few of Gary Neville’s BEST commentary noises! 😅🎙️ pic.twitter.com/bzM2OR01TF

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) November 19, 2024

But the basic premise of what we want from our analysis keeps changing. When co-commentators are encouraged to cheer goals so videos can be posted on social media channels, or when the lines are blurred by pundits being closely associated with or even employed by a club (Micah Richards is an ambassador for Manchester City), or when the younger generation are going to shouty YouTube influencers for their views, it’s not easy for a broadcaster to get that balance right.

The highest-profile matches spark the most provocative ‘content’ from channels. Sky Sports has made a habit of training a camera at Neville and Carragher on the gantry during Liverpool versus Manchester United games, just so they can capture their deflated/euphoric reactions as the goals fly in. The one from Liverpool’s 7-0 win over United two years ago has been watched 1.2million times on YouTube; the latest version, after a 3-0 win for the Merseysiders in September, clocked up a similar audience.

Those numbers are not far off matching those UK-based viewers who watched the game live, a point that underlines how broadcasters have to try and cater to differing tastes at the same time.

It’s a challenge to come up with something fresh during an average football week. When you’ve watched Match of the Day, Super Sunday and MNF, read The Athletic and the BBC website and listened to Stick to Football, watched a bit of Mark Goldbridge or put on The Totally Football Show, what else is there to say?

Punditry still matters, though, especially on the BBC, given its status as national treasure/national disgrace (delete as appropriate given your position in that particular culture war). Mark Chapman, the host of Match of the Day 2 — the Saturday show’s more irreverent little brother — is the favourite to succeed Lineker but it may also be seen as an opportune moment to diversify.

Kelly Cates, Alex Scott, Kelly Somers, Kate Abdo and Reshmin Chowdhury have all been touted as possible candidates if the BBC share the view expressed by Jeff Stelling, the former Sky Soccer Saturday presenter, in The Telegraph yesterday that “we old white blokes have had our day in the sun”.

Punditry has evolved, and so do the programmes they appear on. Des Lynam, Hansen and Brooking became Lineker, Alan Shearer and Ian Wright (who left the show at the end of last season). Neville and Carragher’s tipping point, after a decade at Sky, will come at some point, too.

What follows in the coming decade for Match of the Day or Sky is unclear. Keeping viewers happy feels more difficult than ever.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Dan Goldfarb)