Welcome to The Briefing, where every Monday during this season The Athletic will discuss three of the biggest questions to arise from the weekend’s football.
This was the weekend that saw Liverpool win again, Manchester City lose again and Arsenal fail to win again. So far, so predictable. And yet there is so much intrigue in the Premier League right now, from the identity of this season’s title challengers, to those who might emerge and do something special from an extremely tight middle pack.
This was also the weekend that Lionel Messi’s MLS season ended in truly inept circumstances.
Manchester City and Arsenal drop points again
If you’re throwing yourself to the floor, rolling over and banging your hand against the ground, it’s a fair sign things aren’t going too well.
Mikel Arteta’s melodramatic reaction to Leandro Trossard failing to divert William Saliba’s cross into the net with the last kick of the game at Stamford Bridge yesterday could be one of the enduring images of Arsenal’s season. He knew how much Arsenal needed that to go in.
Arteta shows his frustration against Chelsea (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
On the face of it, a 1-1 draw away to Chelsea is a good point well made, but Arsenal travelled across London for a badly needed victory, not just for the three points but also to revive their flagging title ambitions and give them renewed optimism. Instead, their winless run has extended to four games and they have taken just two points from the last 12 available.
It’s a mug’s game predicting who will win the title six months from now. Predicting who won’t win it is far easier and Arsenal’s tally offers a strong suggestion that this won’t be their year, again. Their record at this stage in the last three seasons reads…
- 2022-23; 28 points after 11 matches
- 2023-24; 24 points after 11 matches
- 2024-25; 19 points after 11 matches
It’s generally considered that the 90-point mark is now needed to win the title, but the maximum Arsenal can reach is 100 if they win their remaining 27 matches. That obviously won’t happen and, with their ongoing problems in defence and attack, you can’t see them reaching 90 either.
So yeah, it’s probably over for Arsenal already.
What about City, whose manager Pep Guardiola has just lost four consecutive matches for the first time in his managerial career?
Well for starters, the data nerds have let you down there because he has lost four before, for Bayern Munich in April and May 2015 (yes the penalty shootout defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the German Cup semi-finals counts, hence the word ‘defeat’ — but let’s not get into that again, huh?).
What isn’t in doubt is that City last lost four in a row in 2006, straddling the end of 2005-06 and the start of the following season, when Stuart Pearce was the manager, Ben Thatcher was in their defence and Tony Blair was the British prime minister.
Anyway, are we seriously all falling into the trap of doubting/writing off City in the autumn? It’s deja vu all over again.
If a reminder is needed, as recently as December 7 last year, City were fourth, six points behind leaders Arsenal having just lost 1-0 to Aston Villa. It was their final defeat of the league campaign. The previous season, they lost 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur on February 5 and were five points behind in second, having played a game more than Arsenal. The next time they lost was on the final day, after the title was already in the bag.
Guardiola will relish the challenge and when City have a fire lit under them, like when he launched an attack on his players and the club’s fans halfway through that 2022-23 season, they generally respond with a long unbeaten run.
The case for this season being different to those ones begins with R and ends in I.
Since the start of last season, City have won 76 per cent of the 51 matches Rodri has started (in all competitions). They have lost only once in regulation time (to Manchester United in last season’s FA Cup final) plus a couple of penalty shootout defeats.
Without him in the XI, they have won 62 per cent of their 24 matches — and lost 33 per cent. Of course, we need to be careful judging an entire team’s performance minus a given player. And there are a couple of Carabao Cup exits with weakened sides in those numbers too. But those figures look pretty stark — and this is the new Ballon d’Or winner we’re talking about, after all.
(Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)
Their defence is the biggest problem — City gave up 7.2 expected goals against in the defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting Lisbon and Brighton combined, which is unheard of for them — and the fact they’re lacking Rodri’s calm, consistent, controlling presence is a big part of that.
Sometimes we overcomplicate and overthink reasons why teams are struggling. City’s are twofold; no Rodri, plus injuries elsewhere. If they can find a No 6 solution for the remainder of the season, they should get back to their previous levels. But at the moment, it’s a big ‘if’.
All of which leaves Liverpool; serene, focused, in form and looking very pretty indeed. For now anyway.
Messi and Miami fluff their lines
What’s the one thing your old PE teacher taught you to always do in a football match as a kid? Play. To. The. Whistle.
The shock exit of Inter Miami – correction, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami – from the MLS play-offs on Saturday was a lesson in football stupidity.
With the deciding match of their three-game first-round series against Atlanta United on a knife edge at 2-2 in the 76th minute, Miami centre-back Tomas Aviles went down injured in his own penalty area. Atlanta were attacking and as there was no head injury involved, they had every right to carry on doing so.
Another game, another assist for Amador. ATLANTA LEAD!@ATLUTD // Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/9oI18VqPsR
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 10, 2024
A cross was whipped onto the head of Polish international Bartosz Slisz, who duly nodded it in, while six Miami defenders stood, watched and didn’t even attempt to attack the ball, thinking that play should be stopped. The goal was rightly given and Miami suffered a humiliating exit.
This was truly embarrassing for Messi and company, who finished 34 points ahead of Atlanta in the 34-game regular MLS season. It was no smash-and-grab win either; the teams played each other three times over 270 minutes and Atlanta won twice.
All of which means Messi, with the manager and team-mates he wanted, continues his wait for a meaningful MLS trophy.
And it makes a complete mockery of FIFA handing Miami a nominal place at the Club World Cup in the United States next summer, hiding behind the veil of them winning the Supporters’ Shield as the best MLS club during the regular season. The eventual winners of the MLS Cup final next month are the team who should be there, not Miami.
But, you know, there are TV broadcasters to find and sponsorship deals to sign.
FIFA gonna FIFA.
Table turning?
Just over seven years ago, Ipswich Town, Fulham, Brighton and Brentford — who all won in the Premier League this weekend — were playing in the second-tier Championship. So too were Nottingham Forest, who despite losing to Newcastle United on Sunday remain fifth in this season’s top flight.
Go back another 10 years, to 2006-07, and Forest, Brentford and Brighton were in League One, England’s third tier. In fact, Brentford were relegated from that division to League Two at the end of that season, having finished bottom.
The top end of the table can get pretty monotonous but there is still unpredictable fun to be had in the Premier League — and hope for EFL sides throughout its three-division, 72-club pyramid.
Some people might prefer a top 10 consisting of traditional big clubs — Manchester United, Everton, Leeds United etc — but there are some great stories to be told by the likes of Ipswich, whose committed group of players under the ambitious Kieran McKenna have finally got their first league win of the season at the Jekyll & Hyde of football, aka Spurs. With an exciting young side and an abundance of creative talent to supply Liam Delap up front, Ipswich have realistic hopes of avoiding the drop.
Thomas Frank has brought brilliant football to Brentford (MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Only Spurs (23) have more goals than Brentford (22) in the 2024-25 Premier League. “That is insanely good,” head coach Thomas Frank said of his team’s scoring record, which comes after they sold England striker Ivan Toney in the summer. “People don’t understand how good that is.” Their last three home games have produced three home wins and a combined 20 goals. And only Wolves (27) have conceded more goals than Brentford (also 22) in the division so far. They are great to watch and there’s a huge buy-in from the Brentford fans who keep seeing their team defy the odds.
Forest are enjoying their best top-flight season in decades under Nuno Espirito Santo, while, at their best, Fulham play some of the most attractive football in the league. You’d have to go a long way to hear a louder noise than their celebrations at Craven Cottage after two stoppage-time goals saw them beat Brentford 2-1 last Monday, before they backed that up with a 2-0 away win over Crystal Palace on Saturday to go seventh.
And then you have Brighton, who are ripping up the Premier League rulebook yet again. A fabulous 2-1 comeback win over Manchester City was achieved with 11 starters who had just 798 Premier League appearances between them (344 of which belong to Danny Welbeck).
Only four points separate third and 13th in what could be one of the most unpredictable seasons for a while (so kindly ignore all of the above predictions).
COMING UP
- Happy international break to all who celebrate. The big question on your lips over the next 10 days is: Can England pip Greece to top spot in Nations League Group B2? Please, try to remain calm. England are in Athens on Thursday and then host the Republic of Ireland at Wembley three days later to complete their group fixtures. Thomas Tuchel is still on his holibobs so won’t be involved.
- Interim manager Lee Carsley only has those two more England first-team games to endure. Carsley, whose actual job is as England Under-21s’ head coach, has essentially evolved into football’s version of then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before the UK’s general election back in the summer; he knows he won’t have the role for much longer, doesn’t appear to enjoy it too much, hates speaking to the media and is enacting radical, maverick policies before he leaves — like playing Trent Alexander-Arnold at left-back.
- The Nations League group stage reaches its climax over the next week or so, at the end of which we’ll know the identity of the eight quarter-finalists in the rejigged format. Those quarter-finals will be played in March over two legs, group winners against runners-up, which at the moment could throw up France vs Germany or Portugal–Netherlands. Not bad.
- France vs Israel is due to take place as planned in Paris on Thursday, despite the recent clashes in Amsterdam. French interior minister Bruno Retailleau said: “France is not backing down, because that would amount to giving up in the face of threats of violence and antisemitism.”
- If the international break isn’t your thing, don’t worry — after this, the next one isn’t until late March.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
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