The Athletic’s 2023-24 Alternative Premier League Awards

By
James BAOUCH
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Another incredible Premier League season is over.

Manchester City made history by becoming the first English club to win four top-flight titles in a row although Arsenal gallantly took Pep Guardiola’s side to the final day.

At the other end of the table, all three promoted sides were sent straight back down for the first time in 26 years.

Individually, Manchester City’s Erling Haaland retained the golden boot with a “disappointing” return of 26 goals, while David Raya won the golden glove with 16 clean sheets for the season. All of this coming in a Premier League campaign that saw more goals than any season since the mid-1960s.

That covers the traditional awards but let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers and give some kudos to teams and players that might not have been recognised by the mainstream, but probably deserve to.

Welcome to The Athletic’s 2023-24 alternative Premier League awards 🏆

Most improved team award: Chelsea

Let’s begin with a staple of any good football awards ceremony — the most improved category.

Among the 17 teams to play in the Premier League this season and last season, Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea have had the biggest jump in their points tally compared with their chaotic 2022-23 season — being 19 points better off this year. In truth, the only way was up after last season’s campaign saw them 30 points worse off than 2021-22.

Despite another difficult season, there are Cole Palmer-shaped green shoots for Chelsea fans, who can be reasonably confident that their young squad has laid foundations to build on next season and return to the upper echelons of the league table.

By contrast, Brentford have the unwanted tag of experiencing the biggest drop off this season compared with 2022-23, accruing 20 points fewer this year. There has been an Ivan Toney-shaped hole in their line-up for a lot of this season, but it is no secret that Thomas Frank’s side have underperformed — with their 16th-placed finish being a stark drop from their ninth-place last campaign.

In terms of the positions in the table, The Athletic has previously outlined just how strongly the Premier League takes shape after as little as 10 games — with a strong correlation between the configuration after 26 per cent of the season and the final day.

Barring a drop off from Spurs and a sharp ascent from Bournemouth, the final league table looks remarkably similar to how it was on Matchday 10, which shows how important it is to get those points on the board early on. Can you win the title in the autumn? No, but you can sort of work out who will.

The Dyche award for services to set pieces: Sean Dyche

We have been treated to a lot of set-piece goals this season, with 247 goals from dead-ball situations being the most since 2016-17.

Of course, the better teams get more opportunity to flex their muscles from set pieces given that they have greater dominance in possession, so who is the best when we adjust for that opportunity?

Everton’s 7.6 goals scored per 100 set pieces place them as the most potent attacking unit by this measure, with Sean Dyche living up to his stereotype since he arrived on Merseyside.

“The staff and analysts spend a lot of time making the best chances we can from set pieces,” Dyche said earlier this season. “But delivery is massively important, and the intent and desire to score a goal — that’s a large part of what we keep drumming into the players.”

Just 3.4 goals conceded per 100 corners means Everton’s set piece “goal difference” stands as the best in the league this season — marginally ahead of Arsenal and Wolves.

Beyond the deep free kicks — which are taken between their own third and the halfway line — aimed towards the opponents’ penalty area, and into the “Dyche Zone”, Everton have a particular penchant for disruption at the back post from their predominantly inswinging corners.

This is particularly the case from the right side, where 46 per cent of corners are fired to the far post — largely from Dwight McNeil’s delivery. Predicting Everton’s approach is one thing, but stopping them has been another task altogether.

Set pieces are “a game within the game”, and elite clubs are finally wising up to just how influential they are.

In many ways, Dyche is years ahead of his time.


(Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images)

The xG overperformer award: Phil Foden

Now a classic feature of the analytical end-of-season awards — who has performed above expectation in front of goal?

Comparing each player’s non-penalty goals with their non-penalty expected goals (xG), Manchester City’s Phil Foden tops the list with 8.7 more goals than his quality of chances would suggest.

Notably, Foden snatches the award from Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung-min, who has had a stranglehold on that title in recent years. Since 2018-19, Son has scored 26 goals more than expectation in front of goal — highlighting the quality of his finishing with both feet.

Capping the season off with a delicious opening goal on the final day, Foden’s effort from outside the penalty area made it six this season (two being free kicks), which undoubtedly goes a long way to explaining such overperformance. No other player in the Premier League has more than three, for context.

As you can see below, Foden has curated a favoured zone to the right of the penalty arc ( aka the “D”) with an overwhelming volume taken with his favoured left foot as he cuts inside to shoot.

With the quality he has shown this season, you can understand why Foden has continued to try his luck from distance. Sure, it might be unsustainable, but it highlights the extent to which the 23-year-old’s form has exploded in 2023-24.

At the other end of the scale, Dominic Calvert-Lewin receives the unwanted gong as the player with the biggest underperformance in front of goal, relative to their expected goals (xG) — ahead of traditional xG-uh-oh poster boys Darwin Nunez and Nicolas Jackson.

A spell of 18 Premier League games without a goal tells a story in itself, but Calvert-Lewin’s struggles have been emblematic of Everton’s profligacy in front of goal all season. No team has underperformed more than Dyche’s side, scoring nearly 15 goals fewer than expected. (Good job their set-pieces have been so good, then).

This explains why three Everton players make up the biggest underperformers on the shortlist.

On the one hand, you could argue that Calvert-Lewin’s process has been strong this season, getting into the right positions to score.

However, a deeper dive into the 27-year-old’s goalscoring performance over time suggests that he rarely scores above expectation in an Everton shirt. As shown by the red shaded area, most of his previous five seasons have seen him score at a rate below his expected goals.

Often, xG underperformance can come in many forms in the short term — from strong goalkeeping to a bit of bad luck. However, when such underperformance is sustained over a long period, it seems reasonable to mainly attribute the cause to poor finishing.

Sorry, Dominic. Please come and reluctantly accept your award.

Here’s some nuanced analysis: having your best players on the field can actually be rather helpful in winning games of football.

Sometimes that luxury is not always afforded to all managers, and rotation either chosen or forced upon the coaching staff. Most notably, Arsenal had one of the most consistent line-ups in the Premier League in 2023-24, naming an unchanged line-up on seven occasions — only Crystal Palace (nine) had more, clinching the award for the most settled side.

While Arsenal’s quality is undeniable, the ability for Mikel Arteta to regularly select his key players has been a huge benefit in helping them fight to the very end this season — a factor that was not afforded to them last campaign.

By contrast, Brighton and Manchester City’s rotation was taken to the extreme.

Across the whole season, Roberto De Zerbi and Pep Guardiola did not name an unchanged XI from one game to the next. For City, that statistic continues the same record held last season, and shows just how strong Guardiola is at managing his squad’s minutes to enable them to battle on multiple fronts.

For Brighton, an average of nearly four players rotated per game shows just how much De Zerbi shuffled his pack this season. With the Europa League and injuries to contend with, Brighton were below par in the league and have failed to build up the same consistency that got them into sixth spot in 2022-23.

Contrast such rotation to 2022-23 — when Brighton named an unchanged line-up on seven occasions — and it highlights how different things have been on the south coast in 2023-24. With De Zerbi leaving Brighton by mutual consent this summer, the task for the Italian’s successor will be to find the right balance in the squad and potentially settle things down a little with the teamsheet.

The best shot-stopper award: Arijanet Muric

Another staple of The Athletic’s suite of awards.

Statistically, we can calculate which goalkeeper has had the best shot-stopping season using the ‘goals prevented’ metric — which compares how many goals a goalkeeper actually conceded versus the number they were expected to based on the quality of the shot.

If we look at ‘goals-prevented rate’ — which adjusts for the volume of shots a goalkeeper has faced — then the award would fall into the hands of Burnley’s Arijanet Muric among all players with 900-plus minutes played.

Notable own-goal howlers aside, Muric has shown himself to be a strong shot-stopper since taking the No 1 spot from James Trafford midway through the season. Vincent Kompany’s side had a difficult time upon their return to the Premier League, but the numbers suggest that Muric did a solid job at ensuring things were not even worse.

In terms of raw number, Wolves’ Jose Sa leads the league with 9.6 goals prevented for the season — rediscovering the form that saw him clinch the award for best statistical shot-stopper in 2021-22.

The 31-year-old had a difficult season in 2022-23 by his own standards, but the numbers below show that Sa has helped Wolves to overperform defensively for the majority of his time at the club.

The highest defensive line award: Manchester City

“It still blows my mind, this high line,” Gary Neville said on Monday Night Football last week. “I thought that the AC Milan back line that used to push up 30 years ago had finished in the game — and we’re seeing it again through brilliant coaching.”

Aston Villa and Spurs have been the poster boys for their staunch commitment to a high defensive line, but can we quantify it?

One proxy we can use is the average line of the offside that was provoked by each team. In that regard, Manchester City push up the most, with an average line of 33.3 metres this season.

It speaks to just how much City squeeze the pitch out of possession, as they look to suffocate the opposition when they lose the ball in advanced areas. No side regained possession in the final third in 2023-24 more frequently than City’s 7.5 per 90, with Guardiola’s side generating 12 goals as a consequence of their endeavours.

City hardly need another award to squeeze into their cabinet, but the numbers highlight how Guardiola’s style is the exemplar of how modern day football is played.

For some teams, getting a corner should be classed as an achievement when matched up against the relentless City machine.

The variety of goals award: Aston Villa, Brentford and Liverpool

We could simply hand out the award for the most prolific goalscorers in the league, but come on, it’s far more fun to see who mixed their goalscoring up the most.

Only three teams logged at least one goal across each of the listed categories — open play, corner, direct and indirect free kick, penalty, throw-in, and counter-attacking situations — so Aston Villa, Brentford and Liverpool can share this award.

Incidentally, Brentford were also one of three sides to register the same feat in 2022-23, making them statistically the most varied goal contributors across recent campaigns.

Everton’s set-piece threat is underpinned by 30 per cent of their goals coming from corners this season — comfortably higher than any other side.

Nottingham Forest lead the league for the highest share of goals from counter-attacks (19 per cent), edging out West Ham United (15 per cent) and Newcastle United (11 per cent).

Cole Palmer’s goalscoring has been incredible for Chelsea, but it is worth noting that 15 per cent of their goals have come from the spot — a near-unsustainable rate that tops the table among all teams.

Finally, Crystal Palace capped off a fantastic end to the season with a 5-0 thumping of Aston Villa but they do not appear to subscribe to the “variety is the spice of life” mantra, with 81 per cent of their goals coming from open play — more than any other team. Oliver Glasner’s side have posed much more of an attacking threat since he arrived in South London, so expect those numbers to look a little different this time next year with 2024-25’s goals presumably coming from a whole host of situations.

The ‘sorry, is this the 1960s?’ award

You’ve never seen anything like this before. Not unless you can remember the mid-1960s, anyway. While humans were preparing to fly to the moon in 1968-69, the goals-per-game rate in England’s top flight dropped below 3.00 goals per game and never again reached those heights. Until now.

And the 2023-24 Premier League did not just nudge past 3.00, it smashed through it, finishing on a barely conceivable 3.28 goals per game. There were headline acts, like Newcastle’s 8-0 win at Sheffield United, but really it was a group effort. There were two 4-4s, six 4-3s, and four 3-3s. The 3-2 win, once an enjoyable but semi-rare treat, was witnessed on 23 occasions, a Premier League record

What’s behind the increase? A mixture of additional time, poor defending, new tactical approaches and a generationally poor set of promoted teams. There’s an argument that there are simply too many goals at the moment — football is the world’s most popular low-scoring invasion sport for a reason. It might dip next season, it surely must do, but 2023-24 will be remembered whether it’s a blip or a sign of a permanent change.

Look, we know Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United are not as bad a side as the Derby County side in 2007-08 who won one game all season and finished the campaign with only 11 points.

But in one respect — namely allowing the opposition shots — this season’s United outpaced that Derby team.

Of course, not all shots are created equal, and 2007-08 sadly pre-dates the expected goals era, preventing a more qualitative comparison. But raw numbers are raw numbers and it’s now Premier League canon that Manchester United 2023-24 conceded more shots than Derby 2007-08.

The making Swindon look… good award: Sheffield United

Sheffield United’s dogged pursuit of Swindon’s hitherto-untouchable record of 100 goals conceded in a single season was completed with a few games to spare but it’s worth highlighting just how historically bad they were at defending.

Swindon’s century of goals-let-in came in 1993-94, a season where each club played 42 games, four more than Premier League sides do these days. That gave them a painful but now somehow vaguely respectable goals conceded per-game rate of 2.38.

But this season Sheffield United saw 2.38 and dismissed them as rookie numbers. United ended the season having conceded 104 goals at a rate of 2.74. Perhaps Chris Wilder’s anger at an assistant referee eating a sandwich in front of him was a way of distracting us from the number of goals his club let in. If so, it didn’t really work.

The age equilibrium award

There can be big age gaps in the Premier League — 2023-24 featured both Thiago Silva (born in 1984) and two players born in 2007 (Ethan Nwaneri and Mikey Moore). So perhaps it’s time we celebrated games involving more of an equal playing field.

In that spirit let’s raise an age-appropriate liquid to Aston Villa vs Bournemouth in April which featured nine players born in 1997 and Everton vs Chelsea in December, which featured nine players born in 2001. Generational line-ups.

The best midfield protector under pressure award: Rodri

In the absence of a straightforward “Player of the season”, a dollop of creativity was required to ensure Manchester City’s Rodri does get one of our prestigious awards.

The 27-year-old was imperious all season and has avoided defeat (no, penalty shootouts aren’t defeats in the record books) for over a year with club and country. There is little more to say about the Spanish international’s qualities, but it is worth highlighting just how important he is as City’s release valve when under pressure in possession.

Given the nature of City’s build-up, Rodri is constantly required to receive the ball in tight spaces and find his creative team-mates in advanced areas. Using data from SkillCorner, we can look at the share of pressured situations where possession was retained by Premier League midfielders this season.

Just pipping City team-mate Mateo Kovacic to top spot, Rodri’s 92 per cent ball retention under pressure shows how much the midfield metronome allows City to execute Guardiola’s demands.

In a world where we are obsessed with highlights reels of goals, assists and dribbles, Rodri has shown himself to be one of the most impactful players in European football this season.

With a nod of respect for his extraordinary ability, this award is a fitting end to our annual ceremony.

(Header photos: Getty Images)



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