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Hello! David Raya looks unbeatable from short range. Why not shoot from distance instead?
Coming up:
📉 The decline of the banger?
🫢 Raya’s extraordinary double save
😬 FIFA’s broadcaster crisis
🤣 The best worst goal you’ll see
Hot Shots: Shearer: Long-range goals are rare but this season shows it’s worth a pop
Entry into the TAFC GIF vault is not contingent on the spectacular — the final lines of today’s newsletter are poised to demonstrate that beautifully — but naturellement, it helps.
Meaning doesn’t come into it because meaning (from a personal point of view) defines the best goals; those that mattered in a way so few do. Bangers can be a T-shirt of the week, viral for a few days and then forgotten, but nonetheless, who doesn’t like a serving of top bins?
The knack of the long-range finish; Alan Shearer had it and his ultimate show-stopper – the volley for Newcastle United against Everton (above) which had a go at breaking the sound barrier in 2002 – was epic in its entirety. Watch a replay of it with audio, simply to hear the thud. It echoes forever.
But here’s the thing. Shots from distance have been in gradual decline. Or they were until they proliferated at Euro 2024 and continued a little resurgence through the start of the new Premier League season. Blockbusters from Aston Villa’s Jhon Duran and Newcastle’s Harvey Barnes last weekend remain collectors’ items.
Shearer’s latest column for The Athletic has been picking at the trend. He retired in 2006 but 18 years later, he ranks third for Premier League goals scored from outside the box. That underlines two things: that Shearer was a killer No 9, and shooting from distance is not for everybody.
Low-percentage plays
In the past two decades, goals from outside the box peaked in the Premier League in 2007-08. There were a total of 191 that season compared to 143 in 2023-24.
More relevantly, the percentage last season was down to 11 — the lowest figure since the Premier League’s formation. Analysis shows average shot distances have been dropping for far longer than that.
Conversely, goals as a whole are more common than ever. An average of 3.3 per game last term was unrivalled by any other Premier League year, so more bang for your buck but not more bangers.
Shearer wonders — and he’s most likely right here — if tactics and data are at play. Expected goals (xG) metrics are rife, and players must be more and more savvy about the difference between a good chance and a half chance. Strategies predicated on retaining possession encourage passes over pot-shots, and hopeful hits from miles out run the risk of counter-attacks in transition.
That said, goals from outside the box haven’t been more plentiful in the Premier League after four games for 17 years. The rate at Euro 2024 was in the sky-high region of 25 per cent. So previously, when the stage was set for a 25-yard knockout, I’d have cautioned you against shouting ‘shoot!’ Your man probably won’t and even if he does, the odds say he’ll miss. As it is, do your worst.
News Round-Up
Tale of two ‘keepers: Raya’s incredible double-save, Ter Stegen’s Barca blunders
The first mile of the new Champions League marathon is complete. We shouldn’t rush to judgement but my gut feeling: there are too many matches. Feel free to get in touch and let us know what you think using the address at the end of the email.
Anyway, last night produced a tale of two goalkeepers. Exhibit one: the most brilliant double save from David Raya in Arsenal’s 0-0 draw at Atalanta (above). If you ever watch a keeper train, you’ll see them practise blocking one shot before springing up to anticipate a second. They do it over and over again. Here is why.
The kill-joy in me can’t help but point out that Mateo Retegui’s attempt to head in the rebound from his own penalty could have been better. But hell, Raya deserves the attention. He’s rapidly turning into one of the world’s best and last night was no fluke because he pulled off a similar stunt at Aston Villa a month ago.
Exhibit two, however: a darker evening for Barcelona’s Marc-Andre ter Stegen who, while not exactly out of his depth, makes hard work of casting himself as the No 1 Barca need.
Away at Monaco — and watched by Michael Jordan — his hospital pass (above) got Eric Garcia sent off for a professional foul. He then shipped the decisive goal by diving too early and letting the ball fly off his body.
I guess we should be grateful. Twelve Champions League games and in the last of them to finish, we finally got an upset: Monaco 2 Barcelona 1. Keep it up.
FIFA’s TV trouble
FIFA’s idea for an expanded and inconveniently-timed Club World Cup met with so much enthusiasm that there’s an emergency meeting planned for today. The point of it? To ask a host of broadcasters if, er, they wouldn’t mind paying to televise it.
You see, we’re nine months out from the tournament and FIFA doesn’t have a broadcast deal. It hasn’t announced any venues or training bases (aside from confirming they’ll be in the United States). It hasn’t unveiled any sponsors. It’s already changed the competition’s name. And it isn’t clear if the prize fund is decided.
Time is of the essence so FIFA is rolling out president Gianni Infantino to tempt TV executives to cough up. As Adam Crafton revealed, Paris Saint-Germain head honcho Nasser El-Khalaifi will be joining him. No network seems inclined to pay FIFA’s asking price so the charm offensive is on.
There’s that bit of you which always thinks: if Infantino is the answer, what is the question? The very nature of his Club World Cup — an attempt by FIFA to cash in on the club scene — is itself a bone of contention and might conceivably prod players into going on strike but the governing body ploughs on. The main man is stepping up. Can he find a buyer?
Quiz Question
Since we’re lauding Alan Shearer, a reminder that he remains the quickest player to reach 75 goals in the Premier League. It took him 93 games.
Today’s quiz challenge, then, is to name the nine quickest players behind him. A clue: Erling Haaland ain’t quite there yet (he’s on 72).
As usual, the answer will be here and in Monday’s TAFC.
Around The Athletic FC
Getty Images; design Eamonn Dalton
- Barcelona’s Aitana Bonmati is, pound for pound, the best female footballer in the world — with a Ballon d’Or to prove it. We’ve got a deep and revealing interview with her, and she’s got some strong views on the state of Spain’s Liga F.
- Nick Miller has been rating the various Champions League broadcasters, on both sides of the pond. I’m with him: TNT Sports’ changes to the Goals Show are a disappointment.
- A second mention of Heart of Midlothian in this week’s TAFC (sorry). Brighton’s cerebral owner, Tony Bloom, is considering taking his world-class scouting operation to Edinburgh. Yes please.
- Give our amazing new women’s football writer, Megan Feringa, a wave. She’s previewed the Women’s Super League season, which starts today, and she’s pointed out something I hadn’t noticed: only four of the coaches in the division are female. That’s a pity.
- Should Fantasy Premier League bosses be lumping on Manchester United players on the strength of their Carabao Cup pasting of Barnsley? Your call.
- Most clicked in yesterday’s TAFC: the original Arsenal pickpockets exclusive.
Catch a match
(Selected games)
Saturday: Premier League: West Ham United vs Chelsea, 7.30am/12.30pm, USA Network, Fubo/TNT Sports; Crystal Palace vs Manchester United, 12.30pm/5.30pm, USA Network, Fubo/Sky Sports; La Liga: Real Madrid vs Espanyol, 3pm/8pm, ESPN+, Fubo/Premier Player; German Bundesliga: Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich, 9.30am/2.30pm, ESPN+; Serie A: Juventus vs Napoli, 12pm/5pm, Paramount+/TNT Sports; MLS: New York City FC vs Inter Miami, 2pm/7pm, MLS Season Pass/Apple TV
Sunday: Premier League: Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, 9am/2pm, USA Network, Telemundo, Fubo/Sky Sports; Manchester City vs Arsenal, 11.30am/4.30pm, USA Network, Telemundo, Fubo/Sky Sports; La Liga: Villarreal vs Barcelona, 12.30pm/5.30pm, ESPN+, Fubo/Premier Sports; Serie A: Inter Milan vs AC Milan, 2.45pm/7.45pm, Paramount+, Fubo/TNT Sports
And finally…
I’m all for sexy football, and let’s hope for plenty of it over the weekend. But there’s room in the game for public park-esque football too, and I wouldn’t say no to a repeat of the artistry shown by Queens Park Rangers at Sheffield Wednesday last Saturday.
The perfect way to equalise in the 96th minute? Ab-so-lutely.
(Top Photo: Everton’s Pickford fails to save the shot from Aston Villa’s Duran. Credit: Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
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