The Premier League’s top two teams have each played 36 games but there is still little to separate them as we enter the final week of the season.
Manchester City’s 4-0 win against Fulham on Saturday saw them move two points ahead of Arsenal, with Josko Gvardiol (two), Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez the scorers at Craven Cottage in a game that narrowed the Gunners’ significant goal-difference advantage.
Arsenal return to action on Sunday with their trip to face Manchester United — a ground that has not been kind to them in the past — with only one win in their last 16 visits to Old Trafford.
With such fine margins set to decide who lifts the Premier League title next Sunday, The Athletic breaks down the state of play.
The top of the Premier League
| POS | Team | GP | GD | GS | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
36 |
58 |
91 |
85 |
|
|
2 |
36 |
60 |
88 |
83 |
What if the teams are level on points?
If Arsenal and City finish on the same number of points, the title will be decided by which side has the better goal difference. If there is still nothing to separate them, the number of goals scored will be compared, then the team who won the most points in the head-to-head matches, then who scored the most away goals in the head-to-head.
Should it come to that, Arsenal have the head-to-head advantage over City. Arsenal beat City 1-0 at the Emirates Stadium in October before the teams played out a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in March.
Remaining fixtures
Manchester City
Arsenal
- Manchester United (A) — May 12 (4.30pm BST, 11.30am ET, 8.30am PT)
- Everton (H) — May 19 (4pm BST, 11am ET, 8am PT)
How Manchester City can win the title
The task for City is, at face value, relatively simple: win their remaining two games and they will be crowned Premier League champions for the fourth year in a row. No side has ever achieved such a feat in the top flight of English football.
Given they are two points ahead of Arsenal, the Manchester side need to equal or better their rival’s results in the final two games.
If City lose or draw against Tottenham on Tuesday, though, the door is open for Arsenal ahead of the final round of fixtures — assuming they beat Manchester United on Sunday.
If Arsenal do beat Manchester United, the title race will go down to the final day of the season irrespective of City’s result against Spurs. If City then do not beat Spurs, they will go into the final day needing to better Arsenal’s result, due to an inferior goal difference, to have a chance of lifting the Premier League trophy. And if both sides are victorious in their final games, City must win by at least one more goal to level the goal difference.
If Arsenal lose or draw at Old Trafford, City can win the title by beating Tottenham.
If Arsenal lose or draw against Manchester United and City then do the same against Spurs, the title will again be decided next Sunday. City would then need to equal or better Arsenal’s result to finish above them.
City have already faced Tottenham away this season, winning 1-0 in January’s FA Cup fourth-round win (Photo: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
How Arsenal can win the title
Following City’s victory over Fulham, Arsenal know they realistically must win both their games to have a chance at securing their first Premier League title since the 2003-04 season.
If Arsenal beat Manchester United, City cannot win the title against Spurs as they would be a point behind Mikel Arteta’s side heading into Tuesday’s game.
If Arsenal lose or draw against Manchester United things get a little more complicated.
If Arsenal beat Manchester United…
A win against Erik ten Hag’s side would be huge for Arsenal’s title chances and firmly put the pressure on City ahead of their game in hand. Arsenal would move back to a point ahead of City before Tuesday’s match.
If City were to lose against Tottenham, Arsenal would need to equal or better their result on the final day.
If City were to draw against Spurs, they would be level on points with Arsenal but behind them on goal difference. Arsenal would again need to equal or better City’s result on the final day, but if both teams win, Arteta’s side would need a victory by a sufficient margin to maintain their superior goal difference.
If City beat Spurs, they would be two points ahead of Arsenal. Arsenal would then need to win and hope City fail to do the same on the final day against West Ham. A draw for City against Spurs would again play into Arsenal’s hands due to goal difference.
Arsenal’s last win at Old Trafford came in November 2020 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
If Arsenal draw against Manchester United…
A draw against Manchester United means Arsenal would be a point behind City.
If City then lost at Spurs, Arsenal would need to better their result on the final day to be crowned champions. Again due to their goal-difference advantage, Arsenal could win the title if they draw against Everton and City lose against West Ham.
If City drew at Spurs, Arsenal would again be two points behind them heading into the final day. This means they would need to win and hope City draw or lose, with goal difference again being a potential advantage for Arsenal.
If Arsenal lose against Manchester United…
A defeat at Old Trafford would see Arsenal remain two points behind City.
If City then lost at Spurs, Arsenal would need to beat Everton and hope City fail to win against West Ham. Arsenal’s superior goal difference means it is likely they could afford for City to draw their final game.
If City drew at Spurs, Arsenal would be three points behind them going into the final day. That means Arsenal would need to beat Everton and hope City lose against West Ham to win the title.
If City beat Spurs, Pep Guardiola’s side will win the title ahead of the final day.
(Top photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Read the full article here