Perhaps no club is a prisoner of its past as much as Liverpool, where supporters look towards its rich history for the clues that hint at what the future might look like.
Managers tend to get a reasonable chance at Anfield and that is because the club’s story tells you Bill Shankly took two full seasons to get promotion out of the old second division before winning the first a couple of years later.
This was a different era, when football was not subjected to the sort of hyperanalysis or raw intrusion it receives now, and Shankly may have responded differently to such pressures.
Yet he remains an icon, more famous than his successor Bob Paisley, with fans remembering it took him three seasons to deliver his first major trophy before emerging as Liverpool’s most successful manager.
From 1990 onwards, the theme of patience continued under most of Liverpool’s leaders, until Jurgen Klopp inspired its next league title 30 years later.
Even the first of those, Graeme Souness, by his own admission, clung to his job for 18 months too long. Roy Evans got Liverpool closer to Manchester United across three seasons before his team capitulated in the final months of 1996-97, while Gerard Houllier got a year’s grace before the team proved itself as one that could win cups. And who can forget what happened in Rafa Benitez’s first year in charge? Liverpool finished fifth that season, 37 points behind champions Chelsea, but somehow won the Champions League.
The point is: Liverpool managers were secure so long as fans could see evidence of progress being made. It’s one of the reasons why the mood under Klopp was still optimistic despite the lack of major silverware in his first three seasons.
Liverpool players look dejected after losing the 2016 Europa League final (Michael Steele/Getty Images)
Yet Arne Slot is less than five months into the job having taken over from Klopp and Liverpool are top of two tables, one being the Premier League and the other the newly formatted Champions League.
Only Joe Fagan and Kenny Dalglish have been able to win the first of those titles in their first season as manager, having built from a position of strength. Can Slot do the same?
Relatively recent experience might also warn against such a possibility. It easily gets forgotten but, eight years ago, Liverpool made it out of November at the summit of the table, having occupied the space for the whole of the previous month. They finished fourth.
This was viewed as an acceptable achievement because it was still early days in the Klopp era. In 2015-16, Liverpool were 10th when Klopp took over and finished eighth. That summer, he bought well, injecting new belief into the club. Yet in 2016-17, Klopp was also dealing with the league’s response to Leicester City winning the league. Suddenly, managers like him — as well as owners — were under more pressure and lots of clubs were having a go in the transfer market, including those already competing at the top. Eventually, Chelsea succeeded Leicester as champions.
This season feels a bit different. Aston Villa’s rise into the top four should have given aspiring clubs some belief that they can do the same, but that does not appear to have happened. Meanwhile, Manchester City and Arsenal, the top two last season, are stumbling, with injuries so far plaguing their efforts, like they sometimes did at Liverpool under Klopp.
Understandably, there is an assumption City will prevail in the end, because that is what they have done ever since, albeit other than one season when Liverpool got in front of them very early on and accelerated.
The news that Pep Guardiola has chosen to stay at City for at least another year has registered with the betting industry. Before the international break, after back-to-back league defeats for City, Liverpool were priced as favourites by some bookmakers but, yesterday morning, one comparison website showed City being backed to retain their title on 14 of 27 accounts.
Liverpool, therefore, are still not considered the team to beat by those who tend to get the odds right — although Opta, the football data experts, make Slot’s team favourites, with a 58.3 per cent chance of winning the league, compared to City’s 38 per cent.
As with Liverpool’s relationships with its managers over time, perhaps the response involves a touch of memory matter. If City are behind, surely they’ll wrestle it back, especially with Guardiola now sticking around? After all, that is what happened last season when Liverpool were top in April with eight games remaining. As they slid to third, City pounced.
This reality, however, also reminds us that Slot inherited a much better Liverpool than Klopp, and therefore he might not require the same amount of time to taste success.
At the beginning of each of those reigns, Liverpool felt like a rebuilding job — but that was mainly because of the players available to the manager. Slot has spoken about not feeling such a pressure and, under his guidance, while the team has been more measured and looked more organised, the performances of individuals have improved as well, notably Ryan Gravenberch, Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz.
Some of the problems Klopp left behind at Liverpool were less visible, with the relationships between football-related departments at the club nowhere near as healthy as evangelicals would lead you to believe. Slot doesn’t really have to worry about that, however, because it is Richard Hughes’ responsibility as sporting director to sort out issues that, if solved, will give Liverpool a better chance of achieving success and, in the long term, sustaining it.
As Michael Cox pointed out in his article on The Athletic last week, 11 different managers have won the title since the division’s formation in 1992. Five of them — Arsene Wenger, Jose Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti, Manuel Pellegrini and Antonio Conte — did so in their first Premier League season.
Just because Klopp didn’t join them, it doesn’t mean Slot can’t, especially when he is better positioned to. With games against Real Madrid, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Everton to follow Southampton on Sunday, we will surely soon be in a better place to judge.
(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Read the full article here