Reports of Saudi Arabia’s increasing determination to sign Kevin De Bruyne this summer posed a few interesting questions going into the weekend.
Would Manchester City let one of their biggest and best players go? What kind of fee would they want? What kind of new contract would they offer him if, presumably, they do indeed offer one? Would De Bruyne himself fancy the move?
Plenty to get through here, then, so let’s start with what has already happened.
De Bruyne was approached last summer about a move to Saudi Arabia and was offered around €70million per year (£59.7m, $75.7m at current rates) to make the switch, but he, like Bernardo Silva, who was approached with similar money from Al Hilal, said no.
The Belgian’s contract expires in the summer of 2025 and he had planned to sign another deal and then quite possibly retire at City around the age of 35. That is still on the cards, although there have been no talks yet.
It was a plan that was made before the first offer from Saudi Arabia was made and although he has already said no once, the Pro League’s sporting director, Michael Emenalo, has kept the lines of communication open and will continue to do so, such is the kingdom’s determination to bring in the biggest names.
Emenalo helped Chelsea sign De Bruyne from Genk, so there is a personal link there, but one big stumbling block for the emerging league is that De Bruyne and his family are not especially keen on the move.
(Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
The potential to end his career earning a truly eye-watering sum may change that, but it also means the ball is in City’s court to a large extent. If they were to offer a new deal, even for a year on reduced-but-still-attractive terms, it is hard to imagine De Bruyne turning it down.
There are a couple of things that should be known about City when it comes to these kinds of things, though. They do approach contract renewals for players approaching their mid-thirties pretty strictly, as Ilkay Gundogan discovered.
“In the end, it wasn’t about a year or two,” Gundogan said after joining Barcelona on a free at the end of his City deal. “There was no problem with the running time. City waited a relatively long time until the talks really intensified. If this had happened a little earlier, the situation would have been different.”
City did not show any particular urgency when it came to Gundogan’s extension, despite his obvious fine form on the pitch and Pep Guardiola making his wishes clear. City, for their part, did put a bit more emphasis on a year or two, reluctant to offer a longer deal to somebody who was 32 at the time.
(Pau Barrena/AFP via Getty Images)
De Bruyne is… 32, will turn 33 in the summer and will be 34 at the end of his deal and he already knows how much of a hard bargain City drove when he signed his last deal in 2021: he felt he was worth more than what was being offered, so he drafted in data experts to prove it.
City showed they can be more flexible when they put together a new deal for Kyle Walker in the summer, spooked by his intention to join Bayern Munich. It seemed a case of double standards that they would offer a two-year extension to a 33-year-old and they were certainly backed into a bit of a corner having already lost a leader like Gundogan, but they are capable of removing sentiment from the conversation when it comes to these deals, especially if they feel a player’s output will particularly suffer with age.
Riyad Mahrez is an interesting case study when it comes to new contracts at City. He was 31 when he signed a two-year contract extension in the summer of 2022, which would have taken him up until his 34th birthday, but a key part of that decision was that the club felt, physically, he was capable of staying at a high level until that age due to his genetic make-up.
(Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
That was not necessarily what they felt about Gundogan and it will be interesting to see how things develop on that front with De Bruyne. How he continues to recover from his hamstring surgery will have an impact on the talks.
And with that in mind, City could also be tempted to cash in if they feel that is where the value lies. They have managed to raise funds by selling a handful of promising academy graduates for at least £50m in the past two summers, so they are not under any huge pressure to sell, but they would definitely be tempted by a big fee for De Bruyne if they do feel his current contract is the right one.
Then there is the definition of a ‘big fee’. City fans have discussed numbers in excess of £90million and the reality is that the club would probably snap the proverbial hand off, even this summer, for such a massive fee for a player approaching his mid-thirties and the end of his contract. It would be a huge amount that could be reinvested elsewhere, even for a player who might well be the best midfielder the Premier League has seen.
If that seems hard to imagine, just remember how they approached Gundogan’s contract and how important he was. “I said about the contract, the club is involved and knows my opinion,” Guardiola said last May.
But who says a Saudi team would pay such a figure anyway? They will pay a king’s ransom in wages, that is for sure, but they generally do not break the bank when it comes to fees. Al Hilal paid Paris Saint-Germain £77m for Neymar in the summer, but nobody else has cost more than £51m and De Bruyne’s expiring contract will provide some leverage, especially if City are in no rush to tie him down.
In any case, De Bruyne has always considered the possibility of retiring in the more traditional manner: moving to Major League Soccer. If he still feels he has something to give on the pitch after life at City — whether that is in 2025 or beyond — then a move to the States might suit him and his family more than a move to Saudi Arabia, even if the money is not quite so good.
De Bruyne has already shown, in these relatively early days after his hamstring surgery, that he still offers a huge amount at the top level. The club may well decide that an extra year of this level of performance, or at least something like it, will suit everybody just fine, and they might want to head off any interest by extending his deal.
But it is also understandable that they have not made any contact yet: with 18 months left on his deal, at 32 years old and after a bad hamstring injury, it seems sensible to see how things pan out.
Saudi Arabia’s determination to sign De Bruyne will not go away and they will try to capitalise on any uncertainty, but it may remain the case that he rejects the move and City do not feel especially moved to offer an extension for another year anyway.
Hardly an emergency, then, but certainly something to keep an eye on.
(Top photo: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
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