Is there a market for Chelsea to sell Romelu Lukaku this summer?

Additional reporting: James Horncastle

For the second time in a little more than 18 months, Chelsea are hoping Romelu Lukaku plays well enough for Belgium to grease the wheels of an exit that everyone wants.

That particular endeavour did not go well at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, where Belgium crashed out at the group stage. Lukaku missed four clear chances as a second-half substitute in the deciding game against Croatia. Expectations are lower this time around. This is a squad built around the reduced remnants of a golden generation, but Lukaku, who scored 14 goals in 10 qualifying matches, will be integral to their fortunes again.

Shining in Germany to a level that materially helps bring about a definitive end to his disastrous second Chelsea chapter is a very high bar to clear. Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly are adamant they will not sanction another loan deal for the 2024-25 season. They are pushing to secure the full value of the £38million ($48.4m) release clause built into the agreement that took Lukaku to Roma last season. But who will pay it?

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Prolonging his stay in Serie A on those terms looks optimistic. Roma pushed their financial limits just to find the €13.5m (£11.4m, $14.5m) it took to bring Lukaku to the Italian capital on loan last season. That effort was partly to placate Jose Mourinho, who was sacked in January.

Inter Milan have not forgiven him for ghosting them in the summer of 2023 and Juventus have Dusan Vlahovic. Milan are looking for a striker but have always baulked at the transfer fee and salary commitments involved in any Lukaku deal. That leaves Napoli, who are expecting to sell Victor Osimhen and offer the possibility of a reunion with new coach Antonio Conte.

A move to Napoli is absolutely possible, but not without its difficulties. Osimhen is the only player Napoli have ever signed for a transfer fee higher than the one Chelsea are demanding for Lukaku. President Aurelio De Laurentiis has never sanctioned such a level of financial investment in a player over the age of 30. Then there is the Belgian’s gargantuan salary. Napoli have slashed their wage bill dramatically in the past two years, which was part of the motivation for sending Kalidou Koulibaly to Stamford Bridge in the summer of 2022.

The biggest limiting factor on Lukaku’s market appeal is that he is 31 and three years removed from his last season of prime attacking production working under Conte at Inter. ‘Old and expensive’ is not the recruitment philosophy of any of the relatively few European clubs with the financial means to take Lukaku off Chelsea’s hands permanently.

There is no evidence Fenerbahce should be on that shortlist, even if they are now in thrall to Mourinho. He also played down the notion after his unveiling earlier this month. “Names of my previous players of my previous clubs,” he said. “I want to make it 100 per cent my word, I have zero interest in any player of AS Roma.”

It is little surprise, then, that Lukaku signalled greater openness to the prospect of a move to Saudi Arabia in an interview with Belgian broadcaster VTM last week. “Saudi Arabia wouldn’t stop me,” he said. “The level will only increase, to a much higher level than many people think.

“More and more football players will tend to play there because of how the fans there experience football. The infrastructure still needs to be improved, but all major European top clubs know, ‘Saudi Arabia is coming’. You already see that in boxing, golf, Formula 1…”

Lukaku added that he had been “scared” when first presented with the chance to join Saudi Pro League champions Al Hilal last summer, unsure about the level of the football. What will scare Chelsea more is the idea that he has come around to the idea a year too late, when the options to agree a deal that satisfies all parties are greatly reduced.

It has not escaped notice around Europe that Saudi Pro League clubs are significantly more restrained than they were last summer, when a splashy recruitment drive disrupted the transfer market and led to a wave of high-profile players following Cristiano Ronaldo to the Gulf, enabling proactive sellers like Chelsea to unload expensive veterans in the process.

Big spending then was largely confined to the four clubs owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund: Al Hilal, Al Nassr, Al Ahli and Al Ittihad. The only other Saudi Pro League clubs who have marked themselves out as potential suitors for major European players are Steven Gerrard’s Al Ettifaq and newly-promoted Al Qadsiah, owned by Saudi Aramco.

Lukaku’s wariness last summer prompted Al Hilal to move on to Aleksandar Mitrovic, who went on to score 28 league goals in their title-winning season. Al Nassr have Ronaldo up front, Al Ahli have Roberto Firmino and Al Ittihad have Karim Benzema. With only eight slots allowed for foreign players in Saudi Pro League squads (with two more added for players aged 21 or younger for next season), there is not much incentive to invest heavily in another pure No 9.

Saudi Pro League clubs will undoubtedly browse Europe’s transfer market with interest again this summer, but it is far from assured that Lukaku will be the priority he was 12 months ago. If he is not, Chelsea’s hopes of creating a viable market to sell him at their valuation look forlorn. Much could rest on Lukaku’s long-standing relationship with former Stamford Bridge technical director Michael Emenalo, now director of football for the Saudi Pro League.

Lukaku can help his cause by firing Belgium through a favourable Euro 2024 group that pits them against Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine. He has every incentive to do so and Chelsea have every reason to cheer him on because neither party wants to kick the can down the road again on a loveless union that, incredibly, still has two years left to run.

(Top photo: Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images)