How Manchester United have changed under Ten Hag — and what’s left to do

If we look at the nine years since Sir Alex Ferguson left, Manchester United have had spells where they have been a defensive team without defending very well, followed by spells where they have been free-scoring without having clear, repeatable methods as to how to attack.

Make no mistake, the Manchester United side Erik ten Hag will be inheriting is not short of problems.

Those were the words The Athletic used to describe the mess of last season.

Since then, the transformation has been stark. Despite two humbling defeats at the start of 2022-23 season, the United of today — just past the halfway point of this Premier League campaign — is markedly different to the team of last year.

This team are a work in progress, but what changes did they have to go through to get to this point? And what work remains before the Dutchman can confidently say the process is nearing completion?

A reworked spine

The most commonly used Premier League XI for United last season was the following, which only managed three starts:

It is a starting XI made remarkable by the players missing and made ordinary by their replacements. Alex Telles lacked the defensive qualities of Luke Shaw, as well as the Englishman’s ability to overlap his winger — rendering things difficult for Jadon Sancho. A centre-back partnership of Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof was more comfortable defending closer to their own penalty area, while the attackers were better higher up the field when they could pressure opponents. This left far too much space in between for Fred and Scott McTominay to patrol.

Signings, coupled with a cleaner bill of health for players, have raised the technical floor of United. Things rarely ‘clicked’ last season; the team was a dysfunctional machine of jarring parts. Now there are superior players available to the manager, many of whom are eager to play his style of football.

A clear and settled structure

Before United’s FA Cup game against Reading, Ten Hag was again asked about how he has transformed Marcus Rashford.

“I’m not Harry Potter,” said the manager. “It’s just confidence. Every player has to make and get his own confidence. He fought for this, he invested in this. With my coaching staff, we bring in structures, especially in the way of play that gives him routines that he needs to get into the right position.”

Rashford’s resurgence has been a key story, but he is not the only player to benefit from new teachings. The summer pre-season tour made it evident Ten Hag is applying much of the coaching patterns seen in his Ajax team of 2018-19. That side was known for some particular quirks.

Playing settled and varied possession: Where a number of players could comfortably exchange passes and play out from the back, Ajax would often start possession in a 3-1-6 shape. A full-back such as Daley Blind or a central midfielder like Frenkie de Jong would drop deep to help the centre-backs, while right-back Noussair Mazraoui would advance forward. “Slow-slow-fast” was a common factor, playing around the opposition press or lulling them into certain areas before exploiting the space quickly.

Overloads and third-man runs in attack: Ten Hag’s Ajax teams would often see one of its wingers move across to the opposite flank to combine with his counterpart and overload the opposition, dragging the defence over to one side. Overloads would be supplemented by a late runner — commonly from the No 10 — arriving into the penalty area to shoot.

Variable pressing: The secret sauce to this Ajax side was that they defended as a collective but changed their method in how they pressed.

Sometimes they mimicked the ‘heavy metal’ gegenpressing of Jurgen Klopp’s earlier Liverpool teams, matching the opposition high up the field. On other occasions, they resembled Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, who would attempt to win the ball back within five seconds before retreating into a compact shape if they failed to do so.

Following the victory over Juventus in the Champions League quarter-final of 2019, Ten Hag referenced Ajax’s variable pressing, saying the team adjusted during the second half of the second leg to influence Emre Can’s work in central midfield. In that game, Ajax’s wingers moved higher up the field, but the central midfield pair of Lasse Schone and De Jong played closer together.

Ten Hag’s teams can press the man in possession, disrupting passes into a particular zone or pouncing on heavy touches made by the opposition. There are games when Ajax did all three at once and games when they just prioritised one of these defensive needs.

At the end of the 2018-19 campaign with Ajax, Ten Hag said: “The qualities of the players determine the system, not the other way around. And it’s not even about systems, it’s about what you do in possession, when you lose possession and in those turnaround moments. You need to be able to change that up.”

United do not play the same system as Ajax 2018-19, but a transformation has seen the 2022-23 class resemble some of the hallmarks of a modern, possession-based side. Let’s break things down according to Ten Hag’s three categories.

What do the 2022-23 United do in possession?

United are getting comfortable with treating the ball with respect.

Previous seasons saw them attempt to pass out from the back, but they were undone by personnel. A number of United’s centre-backs treated the ball as if it was a bomb with a short fuse, with Harry Maguire left to carry from deep and bypass the ‘McFred’ pivot entirely.

United were known for rushing the ball forward — not just because most of their attackers preferred running with the ball but also because they lacked precise passers in midfield. For all of Bruno Fernandes’ creative abilities, he is not particularly comfortable when passing through a coherent pressing scheme. He also dislikes receiving the ball when being pressurised from behind.

The pace of United’s previous possession schemes allowed for a greater margin of error for both the man playing the ball as well as its intended recipient. But Ten Hag’s coaching, along with the additions of Christian Eriksen, Casemiro and Lisandro Martinez, means they have the capability to pass accurately into the final third. All three understand the value of passing sideways (or slowly) to work the ball around a press.

An example of a more settled United in possession occurred against Southampton early in the season.

A passing network begins with Rashford — who was operating as a central striker — who lays the ball back to McTominay.

McTominay plays it to Martinez, who moves the ball across to Raphael Varane…

… the Frenchman carries the ball close to halfway before passing to Anthony Elanga, who is holding his width on the right flank.

So far, this may seem like an unremarkable sequence. But when Elanga drives forward, things become clearer.

Jadon Sancho, the starting left winger, has gone over to the opposite flank to overload Southampton’s defence. He is assisted by Diogo Dalot, who has advanced ahead of Elanga and is playing on the last line of Southampton.

It creates a passing triangle for United to get around Southampton and leaves the opposition undermanned on the opposite side, where Fernandes and Rashford threaten.

When the ball reaches Dalot, Rashford and Elanga run into the penalty area towards the near post which creates space for Fernandes.

Fernandes is free to strike the ball and score United’s winning goal.

The move ticks off the trio of settled possession, overloads and third-man runs that made Ajax 2018-19 so effective.

The departures of Paul Pogba, Nemanja Matic, Edinson Cavani and others have left United in a place where they could be missing up to 20 goals from their squad, but Ten Hag has improved in-possession structure to give his players greater chances in front of goal.

United’s possession work can still get better before the end of the season. As Sancho is still on an indeterminate timeline to return to action, the best front four at the moment is a trio of Rashford, Wout Weghorst and Antony, with Fernandes working behind as the No 10. Two of those are selected due to their ability to bring balance to the side via off-ball movement rather than their on-ball creative abilities — although Antony is supposed to be able to do both.

Despite this, Ten Hag has fashioned a solid attack out of what he has available to him. It’s currently fifth-best in the league for expected goals.

What do United 2022-23 do when they lose possession?

The United of last season were expected to press high up the field but lacked the cohesion or effort in their off-ball tasks. They rarely battled for loose balls and left far too much space between their back four and midfield when retreating.

There were multiple points in the 2021-22 season when Ralf Rangnick bemoaned his team’s off-the-ball shape and inability to retreat into a compact 4-4-2 when losing possession. Last January, then-Wolves manager Bruno Lage explained how the spaces outside of United’s central midfield pivot were there to exploit.

🎙️ “The players understood the plan and we deserved the three points.”

Bruno Lage was impressed with the way his Wolves side performed to get the win against Man United. pic.twitter.com/h6gMqVHwns

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 3, 2022

On the surface, things haven’t improved that much. The side’s passes per defensive action (PPDA) averages at 13.8, which is 11th in the league and suggests there is more to come from the intensity/aggression of their pressing. While a look at their high turnovers — the number of times they win the ball in the final third — sees them 12th in the table.

But look under the bonnet and you can see the main difference to this season’s United comes in their counter-pressing. They hunt for the ball the hardest the moment they’ve lost it.

An example came in their opening goal away against Arsenal. Both Shaw and Rashford pressed Bukayo Saka after the Arsenal attacker received a headed clearance from Ben White. Rashford and Shaw’s press was not entirely successful, but they pressed again after the loose ball fell to Thomas Partey, with Rashford intercepting a pass from the midfielder that ricocheted off Fernandes. The eventual goal came from a bit of brilliance from Rashford, but it was counter-pressing that brought the chance.

MARCUS RASHFORD! What a goal this is! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/5NqKfKZrxF

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 22, 2023

SIX GOALS IN HIS LAST SIX PREMIER LEAGUE GAMES. MARCUS RASHFORD IS HIM. 😤

Manchester United take the lead against league leaders, Arsenal. 👀

📽️ @NBCSportsSoccer pic.twitter.com/nQQJb5xDZp

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 22, 2023

Improvements in off-ball behaviours owe as much to better players in key areas as it does an improved structure and, as a result, Ten Hag’s men are not perfect counter-pressers.

Casemiro’s presence allows the team to leave a wide player further up the field when out of possession, and Martinez’s aggression and timing of his tackles are an improvement on the confidence-stricken Maguire of last season.

There are still refinements to be made in central midfield, particularly in the latter stages of games when Eriksen tires. But the majority of the side retreats into a more compact shape faster compared to last season — and there’s a stronger sense of the collective in all of their defensive efforts.

What are the turnaround moments Ten Hag refers to?

Late in December, The Athletic looked at how Casemiro’s defensive actions offered United the perfect platform to mount counter-attacks quicker and closer to goal. Since the Brazilian’s first Premier League start in October, he has ranked among the top five midfielders for tackles, interceptions, possession won, duels won and clearances.

He ultimately takes the defensive burden off his midfield partners and assists his right-back when they look to progress the ball. (Part of Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s on-ball improvement has come from having an easier passing option into central midfield — we will get to this in a future piece.)

United have been enlivened by Casemiro’s defensive energy — along with Martinez’s — to the extent they rank third for interceptions (202). The next step is to stop opposition moves higher up the pitch.

Teams managed by Ten Hag will always have weaknesses in defensive transition, but United’s rest defence — the shape of the rest of the team when their players closest to the opposition goal are attacking — is improving steadily. The Dutchman is focusing his team’s behaviours on the moments directly after they lose the ball, rather than how they defend for long periods without it. He views possession as both a defensive tool and an offensive one.

It could be said United’s defence is unluckily in parts. They rank fifth for expected goals against (xGA), but have conceded more than expected.

When things come together for United’s backline, they can be hard to get through. They are averaging 0.10 xGA on shots faced (fifth best in the league). United have therefore mostly held their opponents to low-value opportunities.

What still needs to improve?

The recent 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace and 3-2 defeat to Arsenal are evidence the developmental process is ongoing. Ten Hag does not have a squad blessed with strength in depth — but squad players who alter the makeup of his side when they start.

A period of re-acclimatisation for Martinez, along with an injury to Diogo Dalot and a one-game suspension for Casemiro, has exposed how a number of improvements rely on the individual as much as the collective. For example, attempts to build out from the back are weaker when the aforementioned three players are not present.

In addition, David de Gea’s passing weaknesses see United lack a vital tool that modern teams use in “turnaround moments”. Ten Hag would ideally like a ball-playing goalkeeper who can bait an opposition press before accurately distributing the ball to full-backs or midfielders. De Gea’s shakiness when pressed means United can lack an outlet during sustained moments of opposition pressure.

Ten Hag has spent a lot of money on improving his squad, but there is still work to be done to raise the ceiling. The manager is using a series of workarounds to get past old weaknesses — such as making De Gea go long on goal kicks or asking Martinez to find Weghorst in order to bypass the opposition midfield schemes. So for United to “work”, additions will need to be made.

Still, a commendable transformation has occurred in six months. As per FiveThirtyEight, United have gone from outside contenders for a top-four place to now having a 64 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League. They also remain the only English team remaining in four competitions and are in a good position to reach the Carabao Cup final.

Ten Hag’s end goal is not yet in sight, but there is finally a purpose and direction to United that looks promising.

(Top photo: Jon Hobley/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)