How lucky are Gareth Southgate’s England? Using FIFA’s world rankings to analyse their tournament runs

Are England actually good under Gareth Southgate or are they just lucky?

Analysing the difficulty level of England’s tournament runs helps answer that question.

Using FIFA’s world rankings is not a perfect science, with places decided by a points system awarded based on a nation’s results in FIFA-recognised full international matches. Belgium held the No 1 spot between October 2018 and February 2022, but did not win a single trophy during that time. They do however, provide a quantitative metric that, at the very least, gives a fair idea of which teams are considered to be the best at any given time.

The Euro 2024 final against Spain marks England’s 70th tournament fixture since FIFA’s rankings were introduced. England have competed in 15 major tournaments (eight appearances at the World Cup and seven at the European Championship) since 1992.

To work out the difficulty rating, we have added up the world ranking of every team they faced in those tournaments as it was at the time, and divided that by the number of games they played at that tournament. The lower the number, the better the quality of opponent and the harder that tournament was (at least on paper).

Here is what the data says.

England’s easiest runs

Statistically speaking, the easiest group England have ever had was at the 2006 World Cup, when they faced Paraguay (35th), Trinidad and Tobago (91st) and Sweden (14th). Games against Ecuador (30th) in the last 16 and Portugal (eighth) in the quarter-finals lowered the overall average to 36, which is the kindest run they have had at any tournament.

In 2016, the Euros expanded from 16 teams to 24, and England put their stamp on that format tweak by losing in historic fashion against Iceland. Roy Hodgson’s team only played four games, all, against lower-ranked teams at that tournament in Wales (12th), Slovakia (25th), Russia (56th) and Iceland (21st).

The recent success England have had at the last two Euros can be partially explained by the fact that their draws at Euro 2024 and Euro 2020 represent their third and sixth ‘easiest’ draws since 1992. Euro 2020 actually took place in 2021, so we have used the 2021 world rankings for that tournament.

Being drawn in the same group as France seems daunting, but at Euro 2012, they were not the force they later became towards the end of the 2010s.

France were ranked 17th in the world in 2012 while England were ranked sixth when they were both in the same group at Euro 2012. They drew that match 1-1 and were beaten by Italy (4th) on penalties in the quarter-finals.

England’s hardest runs

England’s two toughest tournaments, according to the strength of their opposition’s world rankings, were Euro 2000 and Euro 1992.

In both, England were eliminated in the group stages, finishing third and fourth.

England also bottomed out at the the 2014 World Cup. They were last in a group with Italy (11th), Uruguay (10th) and Costa Rica (16th) after losing 2-1 to the former two sides, and drawing 0-0 with the latter.

At the 2002 World Cup, the overall average world ranking is slightly skewed by the fact England faced the No 1 ranked team in the world in Brazil in the quarter-final and the fifth-ranked team in Argentina in the group stages. Their other opponents were Sweden (25th), Nigeria (29th) and Denmark (12th).

England’s run at the last World Cup in 2022, according to the world rankings of who they faced, was their fifth-hardest run.

Southgate’s side drew with the second highest-ranked team they faced (USMNT, 13th), and lost to their highest-ranked opponent (France, third), which brings us onto the next big talking point.

England’s record against ‘big teams’

Since 1992, England have played 22 matches at the World Cup or Euros against teams ranked in the top 10 in the world rankings.

Those nations include Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain, as well as Denmark (ninth in 1992 and 2021), Sweden (fourth in 1992) and Uruguay (10th in 2014).

England have also faced opponents who might also be considered among the best in the world during periods when those nations were ranked outside of the top 10.

For the sake of clarity, we have also accounted for six fixtures against France (ranked 19th in 1992 and ranked 17th in 2012), Germany (ranked 11th in 2000 and ranked 12th in 2021), Italy (ranked 11th in 2014) and Croatia (ranked 11th in 2021) in our analysis. In total, there have been 28 instances of England facing a ‘big team’ at the World Cup or Euros since 1992.

Before Southgate (from 2016 to the present day), the following managers have also been in charge of England at a major tournament since 1992: Graham Taylor (1990-93), Terry Venables (1994-96), Glenn Hoddle (1996-99), Kevin Keegan (1999-2000), Sven-Goran Eriksson (2001-06), Fabio Capello (2008-12) and Roy Hodgson (2012-16).

The table below outlines how Southgate’s win percentage against ‘big teams’ at tournaments compares to his predecessors.

Southgate has faced nine matches against ‘big teams’ at tournaments while the other seven managers to lead England at a tournament have played in 19 matches between them.

England have recorded as many victories in the last eight years against ‘big teams’ as they had in the previous 24 years, with Southgate winning four of his nine fixtures.

England beat Germany, who were ranked 12th in the world, in the last 16 of Euro 2020 (Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Apart from Venables, who managed two wins against highly ranked teams in the same tournament, no other England manager has recorded more than one victory since 1992, with zero wins in the knockout rounds.

The obvious caveat is that England did win the World Cup in 1966 — it is not as if they have never beaten favoured opponents — but there is not a clear metric that allows us to categorise teams before FIFA’s world rankings were introduced in 1992, hence why the nation’s greatest triumph to date was excluded here.

There was an 18-year gap between 2002 and 2020 in which England did not beat a team ranked in the top 10 at the time they faced them. That period also includes the 2018 World Cup, Southgate’s first tournament as England manager.

During the knockout rounds in Russia, England beat two teams ranked outside of the top 10 in Colombia (12th) and Sweden (14th) before losing 2-1 to Croatia (fourth) semi-finals. They also lost twice to the highest-ranked team in the world at the time, Belgium, in the group stage (1-0) and third-place play-off (2-0).

Failing to beat higher-ranked teams at the 2018 World Cup planted the seed that Southgate has had an easy run. That trend then reversed somewhat at Euro 2020 with three wins against ‘big teams’ but failing to beat the USMNT and then eventual finalists France at the 2022 World Cup reignited the conversation.

At Euro 2024, England are in the final but have only faced one team ranked in the top 10 in the Netherlands. How many other England teams from the past have experienced something similar?

The luck of the draw

At Euro 2020 and Euro 2024, only Belgium and France were ranked higher than England. On both occasions, those teams were on the other side of the draw in the knockout rounds.

At Euro 2024, the highest-ranked team in England’s side of the bracket in the knockout rounds before the final was the Netherlands (seventh), while at Euro 2020, it was Denmark (ninth). England beat both of those teams in the semi-finals.

It is not as simple as saying that because FIFA ranks a team higher in its world rankings, that they are the favourites against every team they face with a lower ranking — but it is a useful guideline when setting expectations.

Southgate has managed England at four major tournaments. The other seven managers since 1992 have overseen the other 11. The table below illustrates the average world ranking of opponents in every knockout round.

There is an argument to be made that previous England teams might have gone further if they faced teams they would expect to play in the last 16 in the quarter-finals instead.

From 1996 to 2012, these were England’s opponents in quarter-finals at major tournaments: Spain, Brazil, Portugal (twice) and Italy. England’s victory against Spain on penalties at Euro 1996 represents the only win from those five matches.

Under Southgate, the teams England have faced at the same stage include Sweden, Ukraine, France and Switzerland, which has resulted in three wins from four.

In the semi-finals, the average world ranking of the teams England have faced under Southgate is eight. On the one occasion since 1992 where England reached the final four before 2016, Germany were ranked second in the world at Euro 1996.

Gareth Southgate’s England face Spain in the Euro 2024 final on Sunday (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

If England, ranked fifth, can defeat Spain, ranked eighth, in Sunday’s Euro 2024 final, no England fan will care about how lucky they were to avoid ‘big teams’ as often as they have under Southgate.

But if they do not win the competition, this might represent one of the biggest ‘what if?’ periods in English football.

The opportunities Southgate’s England team have had in terms of who they have been drawn against in the latter rounds of major tournaments is a luxury previous England teams were never able to enjoy.

(Top photo: Adrian Dennis /AFP via Getty Images)