Have clubs promoted to the Premier League become too sensible?

Throughout much of the last half-century, football clubs were run appallingly.

Companies with multi-million-pound turnovers were controlled by unaccountable owners who had minimal expertise and made ill-informed managerial appointments. In turn, those managers — football specialists but not often economically literate — were handed control of transfer budgets and wage bills. Football clubs weren’t run like proper businesses and too many plunged themselves into dreadful financial situations from which they never recovered, costing ordinary workers their jobs and damaging their local communities.

All of which, clearly, is not to be condoned. But also…

It’s impossible to ignore the drama that’s emerged from the ambition, the recklessness, the refusal to think about consequences. Leeds United’s ascent to Champions League semi-finalists in 2001, Bolton Wanderers’ two European campaigns and Portsmouth’s FA Cup win in 2008 came, in part, because of short-termism.

Today, there’s a danger that football clubs — particularly Premier League newcomers — are being too well-run, too intelligent with their approach, too sensible in the transfer market. All three promoted sides went straight back down last season. Nine games into the new Premier League season, promoted Ipswich Town and Southampton still find themselves without a victory, despite aspects of their play — Ipswich’s pressing, Southampton’s possession — being broadly impressive.

In part, it’s because their recruitment has been too considered. In their season-opener against Liverpool, 10 Ipswich players were starting a Premier League game for the first time and they have added minimal experience since then. Although they spent around £100million in the summer transfer window — a huge amount for a side who were in League One two seasons ago — they have generally signed young lower-league players who might make the step up to the Premier League or be well-placed for a promotion push from the Championship next season. A couple, including 21-year-old striker Liam Delap and 24-year-old centre-back Jacob Greaves, could fetch a sizeable fee if they’re sold to another club in a couple of years.

All of that is exactly what you’re supposed to do as a promoted club — and Delap, in particular, has been very exciting. Only two players who have featured regularly this season, central midfielders Sam Morsy (33 years old) and Massimo Luongo (32), are 30 or older. The age profile is right. The problem is that Ipswich have looked out of their depth, lacking the players to challenge in Premier League matches, despite Kieran McKenna’s promising tactical setup.

This weekend, Ipswich will face a Leicester City side whose recruitment has been a little less savvy and slightly more desperate. It’s doubtful that Jordan Ayew, now 33 years old, will provide much resale value, but he popped up with the crucial winner to defeat the other promoted side, Southampton, a fortnight ago. Winger Facundo Buonanotte’s loan deal from Brighton & Hove Albion will not earn Leicester anything in the future, either, but he has been their brightest attacking spark.

Incidentally, Brighton, the model of a well-run club, are sceptical about the value of bringing in loanees because they want to develop players and earn transfer fees. That’s partly why Ansu Fati, briefly considered Barcelona’s next big thing, only started three times for the south coast club last season — he wasn’t performing particularly well, certainly, but also Brighton didn’t see the value in developing someone else’s player.

Ansu Fati only started three Premier League games in his time with Brighton (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Financially comparing Leicester — Premier League winners eight years ago — with Ipswich slightly misses the point, while profit and sustainability regulations (PSR) are increasingly constraining clubs. PSR has inevitably proved controversial and there’s some merit in the complaint that it simply emphasises the divide between rich and poor. Ultimately, those rules encourage clubs to be ‘sensible’, which is both good for them individually in the long run but bad for neutrals who want some entertainment this season.

One club who didn’t go about things ‘sensibly’ was Nottingham Forest — you may have heard about their owner — who signed 22 first-team players in their first season up in 2022-23 and another 13 the following season. Their scattergun approach included signing players — some on loan — from Europe’s biggest clubs. Inevitably, some succeeded and some failed. It was a risky approach: Forest stayed up by only four points in their first season and relegation might have been a serious issue given their spending. They then stayed up by six points last season after being deducted four points for breaching PSR.

But Nottingham Forest now have a very good starting XI. Their front four is one of the most exciting and multifaceted in the Premier League. They’re the only side to beat Liverpool this season and find themselves in seventh. It would be premature to declare with certainty that the gamble has paid off — they might suffer a mid-season slump, they might bomb next season, and they might encounter another points deduction — but the side who have been the boldest of the last nine promoted clubs are highest up the pyramid.

Chris Wood and Anthony Elanga, two of Forest’s many, many signings (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Forest cannot be the model for most promoted clubs. The general outcome for sides behaving in that manner is more likely to follow what Queens Park Rangers experienced at the start of the 2010s: one narrow survival, then 20th place, then a fortunate re-promotion, then 20th place again and a decade in the second tier.

Brighton and Brentford are based on solid foundations, have invested in infrastructure and have recruited up-and-coming players and managers. Bournemouth and Fulham, who came up with Forest, have also fared well with moderate investment.

But there becomes a point where everyone being ‘sensible’ will actually make football very dull. Throwing money at expensive, past-their-best footballers isn’t advisable. But it is exciting.

(Top photos: Getty Images)