The identity of the opposition has been almost irrelevant. Be they Premier League title challengers, relegation-threatened sides or even a 16th-placed Championship outfit, competitors are finding ways to carve through Newcastle United with startling ease.
It is nine Premier League games without a clean sheet — Newcastle’s sequence of goals conceded during that time is 3-4-3-1-4-2-2-4 — while they have shipped 31 in their last 12.
The regularity at which their goal is being breached is concerning enough, but what makes this defensive slump even more alarming is the frequency at which teams are creating chances against Newcastle. What’s more, Eddie Howe, the head coach, is yet to demonstrate that he has an effective solution, with the porousness extending across a three-month period.
But why have a side that boasted the joint-meanest defence in the Premier League last season seemingly become so easy to play through? How can Howe tighten up the rapid flow of goals conceded? And is a change of system to a five-man defence really the answer?
There has been a dramatic downturn in Newcastle’s defensive performance season on season, which is a key factor in why they are languishing in mid-table, currently 10th, rather than competing for a Champions League spot.
In 2023-24, Newcastle are conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game in the Premier League. That figure has nearly doubled from last season (0.9), underlining that this is a campaign-long trend and not just a recent aberration, even if the drop-off has become even more stark.
This is also visible in the underlying numbers. In 2022-23, Newcastle’s non-penalty expected goals (xG) conceded was 0.95 per game — representing the second-best defence in the Premier League when it came to the quality of chances they were allowing their opponents.
That number has jumped to 1.7 this season — only Luton Town (2) and Sheffield United (1.9) have conceded more non-penalty xG per game in the Premier League in 2023-24. The graphic below shows how Newcastle are performing compared to the rest of the top flight.
With every passing match, Newcastle fans have become increasingly worried by how opponents flood through the team — and the statistics back up what supporters have seen with their eyes.
When Howe’s side lose the ball, opponents have been slicing through their defence on the counter-attack. Their vulnerability on the defensive transition is obvious.
Looking at the number of direct attacks conceded — which are defined as possessions that start in a team’s own half and result in either a shot or a touch inside the opposition penalty area within 15 seconds — Newcastle’s rate of 3.9 per game is comfortably the worst in the league this season.
Newcastle’s high-intensity style of play — on and off the ball — often puts them in a transitional game, yet compared to last season’s 2.7 direct attacks conceded per game, they have been more open on the defensive transition in 2023-24. There has been a 44 per cent increase year on year.
Evidently, Newcastle have a problem which needs addressing. The head coach himself accepts that, citing three key areas in which he thinks his side have regressed.
“There’s the outcome, which is the goals, but there’s a whole body of work that goes into how you defend,” Howe told The Athletic when asked about Newcastle’s defensive record. “Whether that’s how you press, how you defend in the mid-third of the pitch, how you defend towards the goal. Certainly, we need to do a better job.”
The “intensity is our identity” motto that was printed on the walls at Newcastle’s training ground last season has felt increasingly less applicable in recent months. Yet there are justifiable contributing factors to that decline.
As the graphic below shows, Howe has barely named an unchanged XI in consecutive Premier League matches since the start of the season, before fixture congestion and an injury crisis took hold. The majority of those changes have been enforced, due to further fitness issues, rather than out of choice or for tactical reasons.
Last season, Howe regularly named a consistent XI and, more often than not, they had a full week between matches, allowing them to develop together as a cohesive unit. This also permitted Howe and his coaches time on the training ground to work on the specifics of the defensive system, especially the timing and triggers for the press.
The volume of matches has also led to a drop in energy levels for players. By this stage of 2022-23, Newcastle had played 31 fixtures in all competitions; this season, they have played 38. With Sandro Tonali suspended for 10 months and the list of absentees almost constantly in double figures since November, Newcastle have had to navigate these additional matches with a smaller pool of players playing more regularly than last season, so intensity has dipped.
For a team which relies on its pressing and especially counter-pressing, once they have lost possession, that has had a huge impact. Newcastle’s lack of quality squad depth, or certainly athletic squad depth, has been exposed, albeit due to an unprecedented lengthy injury list.
Until December, the team coped relatively well but, after an impressive performance off the ball during the 1-0 victory over Manchester United on December 2, their off-the-ball effectiveness has waned significantly. Up to that win, they were conceding 3.3 direct attacks per game in the Premier League this season. Since then, that figure has risen to 4.5 per game.
However, the increased physical workload and the additional matches are not the only contributing factors. The personnel — and more specifically the profile of those unavailable — has been crucial.
Nick Pope’s sweeper-keeper style has been sorely missed — which The Athletic covered at length here — and it has a knock-on effect on how the entire team defends.
With Martin Dubravka less comfortable leaving his area, rarely moving outside the width of his box even when he does, there is greater space behind Newcastle’s full-backs for opposition sides to expose. That is also true behind the centre-backs given Newcastle are continuing to play a high line.
What’s more, if the defence is more conscious of the gaps in behind, then the entire pressing shape can become further distorted, especially given the balance of the midfield Howe has had to deploy throughout much of the winter.
Bruno Guimaraes, Sean Longstaff and Lewis Miley started 10 out of 12 games in all competitions between December and February and they are not stylistically suited to work as a trio in Howe’s off-the-ball system.
Often, when Newcastle have lost possession, there has been space between the midfield and the defence for a No 10 to ghost into, as Morgan Gibbs-White did regularly for Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day, or for through-balls to merely bypass them.
Joelinton’s thigh injury has been damaging given his ability to cover ground and also to bring physicality and win duels in the middle of the pitch. Howe has also been deprived of Joe Willock’s athleticism throughout the majority of the season and, with Tonali unselectable since October, the energy levels of the midfielders available and their pressing effectiveness has gradually declined.
There may be mitigation behind the defensive deterioration, but it cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely. Howe must find solutions, as the rate at which Newcastle are conceding chances, as well as goals, is unsustainable.
A change to a back five has been trialled in training and many supporters have called for such a tweak in the system. There was genuine surprise from sections of the fanbase that Howe did not deploy a back five from the beginning at the Emirates last weekend.
Yet, across 112 competitive fixtures in charge of Newcastle, Howe has only once started with a three-man central defence — and that was the setup he inherited for his first match, against Brentford in November 2021.
“You can always change system,” Howe said when asked if he had considered shifting formation. “But I think then you’re saying it’s system-related, I have a different view. I don’t think our system is necessarily the issue, it’s how you perform within the system.”
Despite his reasoning for not altering his approach yet, there remains the possibility that Howe could do it. On occasion, he would shift to a back five while managing Bournemouth, especially in away matches against elite sides, and it is an adjustment he has been contemplating since mid-January.
If Newcastle do move to a clear back five out of possession, with five defenders, then that will probably mean that their shape on the ball will be 3-2-4-1.
Interestingly, that is a shape Howe has used on a couple of occasions this season, with Kieran Trippier moving inside next to one of the midfielders or providing the width down the right wing, as shown below against Nottingham Forest away last month.
However, the difference between moving to that shape on the ball from the normal back four is that with five defenders, the widest player on the left will probably be Tino Livramento, if he is brought in as a left wing-back and Dan Burn moves to left centre-back, as would be expected.
The advantage of the current shape when it morphs into a 3-2-4-1 in possession is that when the ball is switched from right to left to catch out the opponent’s back four as they shift across, it reaches a winger — Anthony Gordon here — instead of a left wing-back.
For all of Livramento’s abilities on the ball, you would rather have Gordon, Willock or Harvey Barnes in these attacking situations, especially in a one-on-one.
Defensively, Livramento may prove to be the best option but, in an attacking sense, Gordon must either take on the extra defensive responsibilities of a left wing-back if he is played there, or he must be shifted inside to accommodate the change.
As a consequence of moving to a back five, then either an out-and-out attacker (for a 5-3-2 system) or a midfielder (for a 5-2-3) must be sacrificed and that may have a potentially negative effect for Newcastle on the attacking front.
If Howe is to shift systems, then he will only do so once he is confident that his players understand their roles within that new formation — such as who presses when and from which position — and that he has the profile of personnel to make such a setup work.
The volume of goals and chances conceded may not be decreasing as hoped, but that is not because Howe has not attempted to change things up. Yet his tweaks have not produced the desired effect, at least yet.
Alongside Newcastle’s occasional shift to a 3-2-4-1 when they have the ball, he has tinkered with the midfield. Guimaraes was deployed as a No 10 in the first half against Bournemouth and as a left-sided No 8 against Forest, while Miley and Longstaff have also been used in the No 6 role instead of their attacking-midfield positions. Regardless, the midfield has continued to be susceptible to being bypassed on defensive transitions.
Against Aston Villa last month, Howe also moved to a back five for the final 15 minutes of the game to help nullify the threat of Leon Bailey, who had come on as a substitute.
For now, Howe looks set to continue with a back four out of possession from the start of matches.
He will hope that additional time on the training ground between matches will yield improvement, even if it has yet to do so in 2024, and most importantly that his lessening injury woes will mean he has a fresher pool of players to select from. That should help the side rediscover its pressing intensity, while Willock being available and Pope’s eventual return this month should also address some of the structural deficiencies.
If Newcastle are to have any hope of securing European football for 2024-25, then they simply have to become harder to play against once more. Howe must find solutions — and quickly.
(Top photo: Getty Images)
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