All the usual twists and turns have made the battle for the Premier League’s European places particularly intriguing heading into the final few days of the season.
The top four looks all-but sewn up; Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool will definitely play Champions League football next term and Aston Villa may not need even another point to join them.
Tottenham Hotspur looked to be providing the sternest challenge to Unai Emery’s side but four consecutive defeats have left them staring at a place in the Europa League instead — especially after English sides botched their chances to secure an extra spot in next season’s Champions League.
To secure that, though, Spurs need to fend off the three teams chasing them from below — Newcastle United, Chelsea and Manchester United. Two of the three will earn a Europa League spot, one will play in the Conference League and one will miss out on European football entirely.
| Pos | Team | GP | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 |
35 |
11 |
60 |
|
|
6 |
35 |
22 |
56 |
|
|
7 |
35 |
11 |
54 |
|
|
8 |
35 |
-3 |
54 |
How does Europa League qualification work?
There are two places given to English sides in each season’s Europa League. One is given to the FA Cup winners and the other is given to the team that finishes fifth in the Premier League.
In the instance that the FA Cup winners finish in the Premier League top five, the Europa League position is given to the sixth-placed team.
Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea supporters will be cheering on Manchester City in the FA Cup final (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Tottenham are fifth in the table heading into the penultimate gameweek of fixtures and, with Burnley and Sheffield United still to play, will be expecting to finish the season in that position. As for the FA Cup, the final will be played between Manchester City and Manchester United for the second successive year.
If City win it, the sixth-placed team in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League. If United win the FA Cup, they will play in the Europa League next season.
What about the Conference League?
Only one English team plays in the Conference League each season.
The rules state that the Carabao Cup winners are given that Conference League spot. But, in every season since Europe’s third-tier club competition started in 2021, that place has been deferred to the Premier League table because of the Carabao Cup winners finishing in the top six, and therefore securing a spot in the Europa League or the Champions League via their league finish.
Liverpool won this season’s Carabao Cup final back in February (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
This season’s FA Cup final therefore presents a potentially interesting twist. If Manchester City win on May 25, the Conference League spot will go to the team which finishes seventh in the Premier League.
But if Manchester United win, and finish outside of the top six, the sixth-placed team will get the place. If United win the FA Cup and finish in the top six, it will again go to the team in seventh.
The state of play
Despite their awful form, Tottenham are still strongly fancied to finish fifth. Six more points will guarantee them a Europa League place while four will be enough if Manchester City win the FA Cup.
Ange Postecoglou’s side have 19th-placed Burnley and already-relegated Sheffield United left to play, either side of the visit of Manchester City to north London.
Newcastle’s run of four wins in their last five games has put them back in the mix for a Europa League place and three victories in their final three games will guarantee them sixth place, at worst. Their two-point cushion to Chelsea and Manchester United below leaves them very well set to finish sixth before they cheer on Pep Guardiola’s men in the FA Cup final.
Newcastle have forced themselves back into the European qualification picture (Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)
As for the aforementioned pair beneath Newcastle in the table, it is a case of needing the teams above to drop points in the final eight days of the season and making sure they capitalise. Despite being level on 54 points, Chelsea’s superior goal difference gives them the advantage over Manchester United, whose torrid campaign is perhaps best illustrated by their -3 goal difference.
Erik ten Hag’s side face the very real possibility of missing out on European football completely next season. They need an upturn in form and slip-ups from the teams above to make it into either the Europa League or Conference League.
Remaining fixtures
Wednesday’s match at Old Trafford could be crucial in this European battle…
Saturday, May 11 and Sunday, May 12
Tuesday, May 14 and Wednesday, May 15
- Tottenham vs Manchester City
- Brighton vs Chelsea (Weds)
- Manchester United vs Newcastle (Weds)
Sunday, May 19
- Brentford vs Newcastle
- Brighton vs Manchester United
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Sheffield United vs Tottenham
Predictions
In their model for how the Premier League table will finish, Opta actually do not expect much to change between now and next weekend.
Opta’s predicted finishes
| Team | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
86% |
8.4% |
1% |
0% |
|
|
7.3% |
58.1% |
23.3% |
11.3% |
|
|
1.8% |
21.8% |
51% |
25% |
|
|
0.3% |
11.8% |
24.4% |
60.1% |
(Top photo: Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
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