From 24 squads descending on Germany, eight remain.
We are at the business end of Euro 2024, and the nations are swiftly dwindling as we approach the crescendo in nine days.
From a tactical and data perspective, clear patterns are emerging in each country’s stylistic approach — so how might each of the four quarter-finals look across the next two days?
Will Spain’s width overcome Germany’s narrow attack? Can France improve their balance between defence and attack? Will the real dark horses please stand up?
This is The Athletic’s definitive quarter-final preview.
Spain vs Germany
This clash would not look out of place as the final.
This was the case in Euro 2008, in which a dinked Fernando Torres finish sparked Spain’s dominance across their subsequent two major international tournaments.
Luis de la Fuente’s version of Spain is a different profile to the tiki-taka one that dominated — but rather than lose their trademark control, they have added an extra string to their bow.
Spain’s first group game against Croatia saw their opponents have more possession (53 per cent) for the first time in 136 competitive matches, tracing back to that Euro 2008 final against Germany. Spain defeated Croatia 3-0 nevertheless.
Where a Luis Enrique-led Spain at the 2022 World Cup saw the team circulate possession to death, De la Fuente has spoken about making his team more “vertical” or direct in attack — and it comes from wide areas.
Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have lit up the tournament with their purposeful running and end product. No other nation has averaged more take-ons than Spain’s 26.3 per game, and their dynamic duo on either flank have a large say in that.
Against a structured defensive block, Spain’s wingers can isolate their man in a one-on-one situation. Still, both players have a magnetic pull that attracts other defenders towards them, which can make space for Pedri or Fabian Ruiz to exploit from deep.
Williams and Yamal offer a counter-attacking threat that means the opponent can never switch off when they are in possession.
Both were on show in Spain’s round-of-16 tie against Georgia, in which a second-half Yamal cross picked out Fabian against a compact Georgian defence before a fast break saw Fabian find Williams with a direct ball as he isolated his man to finish emphatically.
De la Fuente’s Spain have a double threat in their approach.
Step off them, and they can look after possession for long periods — led by the metronomic performances of Rodri. Try to get tight to them, and they can punish you with their directness out wide.
By contrast, Germany’s approach has been characterised by a narrow attack, with their own prodigious pairing of dual attacking midfielders Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz.
While both enjoy drifting into pockets in wide areas, the support from Ilkay Gundogan means that Germany have three players willing to receive the ball between the lines and turn immediately onto the opposition’s defensive line. A high share of Germany’s final-third entries are in central areas.
As shown in the graphic below, 25 per cent of Germany’s entries are via the central channel of the pitch — and it is the highest proportion across their previous three tournaments.
That is not to say that Germany are not dangerous in wide areas. Only Portugal and Spain average more open-play crosses than Germany’s 15.5 per 90 minutes among the competition’s remaining nations.
Julian Nagelsmann’s shift in approach was clear in their last-16 tie against Denmark. Wirtz was left out for the more penetrative running of Leroy Sane on the right, while left-back David Raum was selected instead of Maximilian Mittelstadt to maintain more width and stretch the Danish back five.
Raum’s delivery has long been a key weapon, and the 26-year-old has shown his creative threat with teasing crosses in the few minutes he has played. Retaining his services against Spain may be worthwhile in pinning Dani Carvajal deeper in his half.
Things did not all go Nagelsmann’s way against Denmark, with vulnerabilities remaining on the counter-attack. However, his side did show hat they have versatility in their game — able to bypass the midfield and stretch the play with more direct balls from back to front with runs in behind.
This game has the potential to be the best of the tournament, given the amount of talent on show. It’s almost a shame that this clash has come as soon as it has.
One of these nations is full of confidence, with a coordinated style of play in and out of possession. The other country is England.
If not for a moment of inspiration from Jude Bellingham, England would have deservedly crashed out to Slovakia. There are multiple issues Gareth Southgate needs to address, but a key problem has been the passing tempo.
England have struggled to build the ball through the thirds and sustainably threaten the opposition goal. Players will look up, see few options before turning back towards their goal and playing a safer pass.
In an area of the field where you are looking for ball progression, England’s passes in the middle third (of at least 10 yards) most commonly consist of sideways and backwards passes. Yes, it is common for elite sides to circulate the ball in this zone of the pitch to disrupt their opposition’s defensive structure, but you have to go as far as England’s sixth-most common pass type in this tournament to find a convincing ball punched forward.
The numbers back up what the eyes see. Just 26 per cent of the middle-third passes have gone forward — the lowest share of the nations who remain at the Euros.
You can point out that England’s greater defensive solidity should be a source of encouragement in knockout games, but Southgate’s side looked rattled on multiple occasions against Slovakia and would have been punished more if they were playing against a side with greater attacking potency.
With an expected goals (xG) tally of just 3.7 — including an additional 30 minutes for extra time — from their four games, England’s chance creation is the lowest of the sides left. With twenty-one of their 45 shots having been outside the penalty area, it is no surprise they have scored just four times.
It speaks to the core issue facing England: they are not disrupting the opposition’s shape enough because their passing tempo is slow and pass selection is too risk averse.
For Switzerland, manager Murat Yakin should be confident that his side can progress to a semi-final for the first time.
The Swiss dismantled holders Italy with their composed in-possession style and relentless man-for-man press off the ball, as they continue to exude calmness and trust in their play — instilled from having such a settled squad in recent tournaments.
Their opening goal against Italy was underpinned by a fluid passing sequence that saw them make 31 passes before Remo Freuler fired past Gianluigi Donnarumma after great exchanges from Breel Embolo, Dan Ndoye and Ruben Vargas on the left.
Rotations are a key part of Switzerland’s approach going forward, particularly down the left where 45 per cent of their attacking touches have come from.
Michel Aebischer will often drift inside from left wing-back, left centre-back Ricardo Rodriguez will push forward into a familiar left-back role, while Vargas will maintain his width on the touchline and drive from out-to-in — all backed up by metronome Granit Xhaka drifting across to support.
England have struggled against back-three defences, and Switzerland’s is likely to pose the most threat of any side.
With a fluid 3-4-3 structure that can shift into a 5-4-1 out of possession, Yakin’s side could be the real dark horse to win the tournament.
Portugal vs France
Another European championship final of yesteryear.
Portugal’s extra-time winner from Eder edged out France to lift the trophy in 2016, and this clash will surely provide more entertainment.
Both nations have a bottleneck in their attacking approach. For Portugal, all attacking roads lead to Cristiano Ronaldo. No player in the tournament has attempted more than the 39-year-old’s 20 shots.
For France, it would be overly simplistic to categorise them as a side who give it to Kylian Mbappe and watch him do something special, given the glut of attacking talent they have.
Their strength has come in their own box. France are yet to concede a goal in open play, and it is in-keeping with Didier Deschamps’ pragmatic approach to tournaments. A figure of 1.8 non-penalty xG conceded from 28 shots is the best defensive record among the remaining nations.
Only Poland’s Robert Lewandowski has managed to beat Mike Maignan — and that was from a retaken penalty.
The balance between defence and attack has been a critique that France’s manager has had to fend off.
“We should be more efficient in front of goal, but defence is the key to success,” Deschamps said after the 1-0 win over Belgium.
“We have an interesting defensive solidity. It’s essential at this level. It’s not just a question of defending well. We had good control of the ball. They did everything they could to make sure we didn’t concede a goal. Even if we only managed one, that’s enough for today.”
France’s opponents, Ronaldo FC — sorry, Portugal — have not been entirely convincing in threatening the opposition goal either.
Aside from a 3-0 victory over Turkey — in which they were handed goals on a plate — Portugal struggled to break down Georgia and Slovenia while going long periods without troubling the Czech Republic goal.
Roberto Martinez has plenty of attacking talent but has not found the right alchemy to form a coherent unit. Since joining as head coach in January 2023, Martinez has used eight formations.
Across Portugal’s four games, Martinez has switched between a back three and a back four but has largely relied on in-game changes to find the right balance. Tactical flexibility should be taken as a positive, but uncertainty can cast doubt in players’ minds when executing a game plan.
With a manager staunchly dedicated to his tactical ideals against a head coach still working out his best formation, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.
The Netherlands look to be building momentum at exactly the right time.
Their 3-0 victory over Romania was notable for their dominance, but the contrasting approach in wide areas is of most interest.
Cody Gakpo grabbed the headlines, scoring his third goal of the tournament — making him joint-top goalscorer — and assisting Donyell Malen. Looking back, all seven of Netherlands’ goals have come from good work on the left, but it is their right side where they channel their attack most frequently.
This is shown neatly in their pass network below, in which a lopsided attack saw Steven Bergwijn start on the right. He would link with Memphis Depay and drift inside to pin the opposition full-back, allowing Denzel Dumfries to maraud forward.
It has been a theme, with 41 per cent of the Netherlands’ attacking touches coming down the right flank as they look to create overloads.
While Gakpo has been a staple of the side on the left, Ronald Koeman has rotated the right side of attack in every game. He has picked Xavi Simons, Jeremie Frimpong, Malen and Bergwijn as he works out his best formula.
The tendency to isolate Gakpo one-on-one against the opposition full-back has proven lucrative on multiple occasions.
The Netherlands will have to overcome a Turkey side with the wind in their sails after a dramatic victory over Austria.
From the first minute, the game’s chaotic nature made it difficult to draw too many tactical conclusions, but what Turkey might lack in quality, they make up for in raw emotion and passion.
Vincenzo Montella’s team showed tactical intelligence against a typically front-footed Austria by bypassing their press with longer balls. When Austria edged forward — ready to pounce when a team-mate triggered the press — Turkey drilled the ball to Arda Guler between the lines, or to right-back Mert Muldur to contest a header near the touchline.
When Austria subsequently sat off, expecting more long balls, Montella’s side then calmed their passing down and worked through the thirds with direct, intricate passing.
From a technical perspective, the shining light is undoubtedly teenage sensation Guler. While he technically only registered an assist for Turkey’s second goal, the teasing deliveries from Guler’s left foot were one of the few moments of quality in a chaotic game.
Guler has the licence to roam. As you can see in his touch below, he might hug the touchline, drift inside to the right half-space, or even drop into a deeper role to orchestrate the attack and instruct his team-mates on how it should be done.
There is a justified confidence — bordering on arrogance — from the 19-year-old Real Madrid star.
With the pressure growing, Guler and his team-mates look ready. The Netherlands boast a greater array of talent, but intentional tournaments have a knack for dismissing rational thought. Turkey are competing with Switzerland as this summer’s true dark horses.
(Top photo: Guler, Yamal and Williams have lit up the tournament. Getty Images)
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