Champions League Projections: Who has performed above or below expectation at the halfway point?

The second half of the Champions League’s league stage begins today with another set of mouthwatering fixtures.

Replays of the 2020 and 2022 Champions League finals will undoubtedly attract the most interest, but there are other interwoven storylines across the league, too. Aston Villa and Manchester City will aim to end their winless streaks against Juventus and Feyenoord respectively, while Barcelona and Brest will battle it out with a chance to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack chasing a top-eight finish.

With Liverpool and Sporting CP facing stiff tests, a Monaco win over Benfica could potentially send them to the top of the Champions League table. At the other end, Slovan Bratislava, Crvena Zvezda, Young Boys, Sturm Graz, and RB Leipzig are all looking to claim their first points of the campaign.

Four games in, the league table has started to take shape, and though a lot could yet change, this seems like a suitable time to measure how teams have done in relation to expectations. So, The Athletic has looked at the teams who have overperformed, underperformed and those who have played in line with expectations, using our projections, powered by Opta.

The overperformers

Sporting CP

Projected points total before MD 1: 12 (14th in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 14 (12th)

Projected points after MD 4: 17 (3rd)

Matchday 5 fixture: Arsenal (H)

Sporting were behind the most eye-catching result of matchday four, defeating Manchester City 4-1 in Ruben Amorim’s final home match in charge. The win, which followed victories over Lille and Sturm Graz and a draw with PSV, has lifted them up to second in the table at the halfway stage. Sporting now have a 75 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, up from just 29 per cent after the first two matchdays.

New head coach Joao Pereira began his reign with a 6-0 thrashing of fourth-tier side Amarante in the Taca de Portugal, but his first real test is Arsenal. Sporting’s final three matches do not look too daunting, however, so even a defeat here should leave them confident of securing direct qualification into the round of 16.

Remaining fixtures: Club Brugge (A), Leipzig (A), Bologna (H)

Monaco

Projected points total before MD 1: 11 (20th in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 13 (17th)

Projected points after MD 4: 15 (8th)

Matchday 5 fixture: Benfica (H)

Monaco’s matchday one victory against Barcelona set them up for an excellent first half of their Champions League campaign, which subsequently included wins over Crvena Zvezda (5-1) and Bologna (1-0). Benfica, who have six points from four games, are a tricky proposition but Adi Hutter’s team are clear favourites heading into this fixture.

Victory here is crucial for the French side as their final three matches pit them against difficult opponents including two from the Premier League (Arsenal and Aston Villa). That is why they have only a 37 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight (up from 13 per cent) even after their fast start.

Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (A), Aston Villa (H), Inter (A)

Lille

Projected points total before MD 1: 9 (28th in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 10 (21st)

Projected points after MD 4: 13 (16th)

Matchday 5 fixture: Bologna (A)

While Paris Saint-Germain have struggled in Europe while maintaining their domestic dominance, their French counterparts have enjoyed their midweek outings more than their weekends.

Lille have been one of the Champions League’s biggest surprises, picking up seven of nine available points against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, and Juventus, with wins over both Spanish giants. Jonathan David’s total of four goals is only beaten by four players, while their four goals conceded is better than Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, and Bayer Leverkusen.

Jonathan David celebrates scoring against Real Madrid (Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)

With seven points, they currently sit 14th in the table, but they will believe three out of their remaining four fixtures — including against Bologna on Wednesday — are winnable. Lille have a 79 per cent chance of qualifying for the knockout playoff and 15 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, up from 62 and five per cent respectively after matchday two.

Remaining fixtures: Sturm Graz (H), Liverpool (A), Feyenoord (H)

Honourable mentions: Brest, Aston Villa, Inter Milan

On par with expectations

Liverpool

Projected points total before MD 1: 13 (9th in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (4th)

Projected points after MD 4: 20 (1st)

Matchday 5 fixture: Real Madrid (H)

Some might count Liverpool’s perfect start as an overperformance, but there are caveats to consider. Yes, Liverpool were indicated to have the third toughest fixture list by Opta prior to matchday one, but among their first four opponents, only Leverkusen are in the table’s top 15 after four matches. The others — Milan, Leipzig, and Bologna — have seven points from their 12 combined games so far.

Even if the margin of victory over Leverkusen was a surprise, the result was not given the German champions’ defensive issues this season. Overall, Liverpool are where you would expect them to be, but Arne Slot’s team should be commended for making winning in Europe look easy.

Liverpool have comfortably been the best team in the Premier League and Champions League this season, but this week will be the biggest test as they face the reigning champions of both competitions in successive games.

Wednesday’s clash against Real Madrid is an opportunity to avenge defeats in the 2022 final (1-0) and round of 16 in 2022-23 (6-2 on aggregate). Win this one and a perfect league stage campaign is very much on the cards.

Remaining fixtures: Girona (A), Lille (H), PSV (A)

Barcelona

Projected points total before MD 1: 15 (3rd in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 14 (11th)

Projected points after MD 4: 16 (4th)

Matchday 5 fixture: Brest (H)

Barcelona thrashed Bayern Munich 4-1 on matchday three, but that was a surprise given the two teams’ recent meetings. They offset that by losing 2-1 to Monaco on matchday one, with goal-heavy wins over Young Boys (5-0) and Crvena Zvezda (5-2) in their other games.

Given the vulnerabilities they have shown with their high line and lack of sufficient creativity without Lamine Yamal, this seems roughly where Barcelona would have expected to be at this point of their Champions League campaign.

Raphinha has impressed this season (David Ramos/Getty Images)

Victory over Brest, especially if those above them stutter, could see them take a big step towards direct qualification into the round of 16. More help is on the way; Yamal should be back soon, while Ronald Araujo has resumed training after a long-term injury.

However, it will not be a straightforward affair. Brest are unbeaten in this year’s competition and have conceded just three times in four games.

Remaining fixtures: Dortmund (A), Benfica (A), Atalanta (H)

Honourable mentions: Dortmund, Atalanta

The underperformers

Manchester City

Projected points total before MD 1: 17 (1st in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 17 (2nd)

Projected points after MD 4: 15 (6th)

Matchday 5 fixture: Feyenoord (H)

Pep Guardiola and Man City find themselves in uncharted territory. The only familiar part of their five-match slump has been losing to Tottenham Hotspur twice, with that 4-0 thrashing at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday providing a peek into the seriousness of the situation.

Tuesday’s match against Feyenoord is crucial for Man City — currently 10th in the table — in more ways than one, with Juventus and a desperate PSG to come next. Their chances of directly qualifying for the round of 16 have dropped from 77 per cent before matchday one to 53 per cent now, but this is a team known for embarking on runs and a win here will give them much-needed momentum ahead of a weekend visit to Anfield.

Remaining fixtures: Juventus (A), PSG (A), Club Brugge (H)

Guardiola’s side will hope to arrest their slump against Feyenoord (Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images)

Real Madrid

Projected points total before MD 1: 17 (2nd in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (6th)

Projected points after MD 4: 13 (18th)

Matchday 5 fixture: Liverpool (A)

Speaking of uncharted territories, Real Madrid are also in a pickle after four matches. The second half against Borussia Dortmund aside, Real Madrid have looked far from their best. Lille and AC Milan exploited the weaknesses to beat them, while Stuttgart seemed to be on equal footing or better for much of their matchday one clash too.

Carlo Ancelotti and his side can never be written off in this competition, but this is a team who have had far too many injuries during the process of finding its footing since Kylian Mbappe’s arrival. A new format that’s somewhat analogous to what Florentino Perez wanted from a European Super League does not help them either, with Liverpool hosting them this week. Defeat on Merseyside could seriously dent Madrid’s chances of finishing in the top eight, which sits at 16 per cent now, down from 57 per cent after matchday two and 74 per cent before the tournament began.

Remaining fixtures: Atalanta (A), Salzburg (H), Brest (A)

Atletico Madrid

Projected points total before MD 1: 13 (10th in projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 13 (15th)

Projected points after MD 4: 13 (17th)

Matchday 5 fixture: Sparta Prague (A)

Like their cross-city rivals, Atletico Madrid also face the prospect of failing to directly qualify for the knockouts after a topsy-turvy start that has seen them beat PSG and Leipzig and suffer heavy defeats against Benfica (4-0) and Lille (3-1).

It leaves them in a delicate position as they enter the second half of their league stage campaign, starting with a winnable but tricky match in Prague. Handed the 12th-easiest fixture list according to Opta, Atletico still have a 79 per cent chance of making the knockout playoff round, but their chances of a top-eight finish have plummeted to 12 per cent from 31 per cent at the start of the season.

Remaining fixtures: Slovan Bratislava (H), Leverkusen (H), Salzburg (A)

Atletico have been inconsistent in Europe this season (Anne-Christine Poujoulat/AFP via Getty Images)

What about the rest?

Aston Villa are winless in six matches across all competitions, with their defence shipping 12 goals in those games. The 1-0 defeat to Club Brugge on matchday four — courtesy of a Tyrone Mings brain-fade — dropped their top eight chances from 60 per cent after matchday four to 32 per cent now. Juventus’ visit to Villa Park should make for a fantastic atmosphere that the hosts must feed off ahead of visits to Leipzig and Monaco.

Handed the easiest draw according to Opta, Celtic have reasons to be optimistic. Victory against Club Brugge on matchday five could lift them into the top 10 based on other results — commendable given the 7-1 defeat at Dortmund not long ago — with games against Zagreb and Young Boys to come.

On a related note, Dinamo Zagreb can take pride in sitting ahead of both Madrid teams, Bayern, Milan, and PSG at the halfway point. Dortmund, Celtic, Arsenal and Milan, are still on their fixture list — can they sneak into the knockout play-offs at the expense of one of the usual suspects?

PSG sit 25th in our projections table, with a 32 per cent chance of falling out in the league stage, with Bayern up next and Man City still to come. Anything less than a victory at the Allianz Arena — where Bayern are yet to lose and have conceded three times in seven games across all competitions — and the club could be in for some uncomfortable conversations.

(Top photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)