Champions League projections: All the talking points from matchday three

The top of the Champions League table after three rounds of games is starting to look like James Milner’s career path. His former employers Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester City lead the standings, with Villa yet to drop a point or concede a goal.

The jury might still be out on the Champions League’s new look but the third batch of games provided more evidence supporting the new format. Real Madrid came back from two goals down to beat Borussia Dortmund 5-2 on Tuesday before Barcelona thrashed Bayern Munich 4-1, with compatriots Vinicius Junior and Raphinha netting hat-tricks for the La Liga sides (who meet on Saturday). There were 1-0 wins for Arsenal and Inter Milan, while Brest and Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten after a 1-1 draw in Brittany.

All the results have impacted The Athletic’s Champions League projections, powered by Opta. With the halfway point of the league stage approaching, here is our look at the teams most affected.

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Aston Villa

Projected points total after matchday one: 12 (16th in projection table)

Projected points total after MD 2: 14 (10th)

Projected points after MD 3: 16 (3rd)

On the second anniversary of Unai Emery’s appointment as Villa manager, the team sit top of the Champions League table, having been in the relegation zone when he took over. Their impressive journey was underlined by a comfortable 2-0 win over Bologna on Tuesday, a result that gives them a 60 per cent chance of direct qualification into the round of 16, more than five times what it was before the start of the tournament (11 per cent).

Based on form, Villa’s toughest remaining fixture is against Monaco on matchday seven. However, another massive European night in Villa Park awaits on November 27 when Juventus visit, four days before what could be a crucial Premier League encounter away to Chelsea. But given how the club keep progressing under Emery, Villa fans can surely start planning for the knockout stage in 2025.

Remaining fixtures: Club Bruges (A), Juventus (H), RB Leipzig (A), Monaco (A), Celtic (H).

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Barcelona

Projected points total after MD 1: 14 (12th in projection table)

Projected points total after MD 2: 14 (11th)

Projected points after MD 3: 15 (9th)

In a week that was touted as the first major challenge of the Hansi Flick era, Barcelona have scored nine goals and picked up maximum points. Four came against Bayern Munich in a 4-1 victory that meant Barcelona are now projected to have an equal chance of qualifying for the playoff round and directly to the round of 16 at 49 per cent each.

However, the psychological impact of Wednesday’s game will be far more profound and should give them a lot more confidence, especially if they make it three out of three this week away to Real Madrid, having lost the last four games against them 13-4 on aggregate.

Regardless, Barcelona’s Champions League fixture list looks far less imposing with Bayern safely out of the way.

Remaining fixtures: Red Star Belgrade (A), Brest (H), Borussia Dortmund (A), Benfica (A), Atalanta (H).

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Borussia Dortmund

Projected points total after MD 1: 16 (4th)

Projected points total after MD 2: 17 (2nd)

Projected points after MD 3: 16 (8th)

Speaking of the psychological impact of results, spare a thought for Dortmund. A fantastic start at the Santiago Bernabeu against a wobbly home defence suggested that they had rediscovered the one aspect they lacked in May’s Champions League final: finishing their chances. Donyell Malen and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens gave them the perfect platform, but a combination of questionable substitutions and a clinical display from Vinicius Jr ultimately doomed the visitors.

Dortmund have winnable fixtures, giving them a 60 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight (down from 72 per cent before matchday three). Getting Karim Adeyemi, Gio Reyna and other players back from injury should help, but this implosion will hurt.

Combined with defeats for Bayern and RB Leipzig (1-0 at home against Liverpool), this was a tough midweek for Bundesliga sides.

Remaining fixtures: Sturm Graz (H), Dinamo Zagreb (A), Barcelona (H), Bologna (A), Shakhtar Donetsk (H)

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Lille

Projected points total after MD 1: 8 (29th)

Projected points total after MD 2: 10 (21st)

Projected points after MD 3: 13 (12th)

The first time was so enjoyable, they had to do it twice.

Having beaten Real Madrid 1-0 at home on matchday two, Lille travelled to the Spanish capital and convincingly defeated Atletico Madrid 3-1 on Wednesday despite falling behind to an eighth-minute Julian Alvarez goal.

Lille’s rise has been astronomical, having begun the tournament with just a five per cent chance of a top-eight finish in our Opta-powered projections. That fell to one per cent after a 2-0 defeat to Sporting Lisbon in their opener but has risen to 19 per cent after their latest victory. They also have a 73 per cent chance of making the play-off round — more than Bayern (68 per cent), Juventus (71 per cent), Paris Saint-Germain (71 per cent), and Atletico themselves (64 per cent).

Lille have a few tricky fixtures to come but will believe anything is possible, especially with the talented Jonathan David in eye-catching form.

Remaining fixtures: Juventus (H), Bologna (A), Sturm Graz (H), Liverpool (A), Feyenoord (H)

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Atletico Madrid

Projected points total after MD 1: 14 (8th in projection table)

Projected points total after MD 2: 13 (15th)

Projected points after MD 3: 11 (23rd)

Atletico are languishing in 27th in the Champions League table and are not doing too well in our projections, either. A last-gasp victory over Leipzig has been followed by comprehensive defeats at Benfica (4-0) and now against Lille at the Metropolitano.

With Diego Simeone at the helm, they will be a threat if they make the knockout stages but have just a four per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, down from 23 per cent before matchday three and 41 per cent after their matchday one win. Their next match away to Paris Saint-Germain, who are also struggling in Europe, is now of immense significance.

Their fixture list (deemed by Opta to be the 12th-easiest before the tournament) does ease up a little, giving them a 64 per cent chance of making the play-off round. Atletico, however, will want to avoid that, with the first leg of the play-off ties scheduled for February 11 or 12, almost immediately after a Madrid derby at the Bernabeu in La Liga on February 9/10.

Remaining fixtures: PSG (A), Sparta Prague (A), Slovan Bratislava (H), Bayer Leverkusen (H), Red Bull Salzburg (A)

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Paris Saint-Germain

Projected points total after MD 1: 14 (11th in projection table)

Projected points total after MD 2: 13 (16th)

Projected points after MD 3: 12 (20th)

PSG produced an uninspiring display in their 1-1 draw with PSV Eindhoven, a fixture that had looked like a must-win. They took 26 shots but got just eight on target.

This is a transitional year for PSG after losing Kylian Mbappe, but four points from their first three matches is below par. PSG find themselves behind all the teams on this list barring their next opponents, Atletico, as well as Feyenoord, Stuttgart, and Atalanta, in terms of projected points, with a very difficult set of fixtures to come. To rub it in further, they are the lowest-ranked French team following Brest’s draw and wins for Lille and Monaco.

Luis Enrique’s side are projected to have only an 11 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, down from 33 per cent after their matchday one win over Girona. They should have enough to make it at least to the play-off round, the first leg of which would come just a few days after they host Monaco in Ligue 1.

Remaining fixtures: Atletico Madrid (H), Bayern Munich (A), Salzburg (A), Manchester City (H), Stuttgart (A)

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What about the rest?

• Monaco sit 10th in our projections table, having started in 20th, with impressive wins over Barcelona and Red Star Belgrade. Bologna and Benfica are up next before clashes with Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium and a visit from Aston Villa.
• Liverpool continued their fantastic start under Arne Slot by beating Leipzig 1-0. They now have a 79 per cent chance of directly qualifying for the round of 16 (up from 54 per cent after matchday two), with visits from Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen in November. Slot’s side also have an 11 per cent chance of going all the way after starting the tournament with a five per cent chance.
• Life away from Anfield has not been easy for Pep Ljinders. The former Liverpool assistant is now in charge of Salzburg, who were handed the sixth-toughest draw according to Opta and are yet to pick up a point after three games, losing 2-0 to Dinamo Zagreb at home on matchday three. With matches against Feyenoord, Leverkusen, PSG, Real Madrid and Atletico up next, a bleak 0-0-8 record is a danger.
• Celtic finally showed some defensive solidity, drawing 0-0 with Atalanta after a 7-1 hammering at Dortmund on matchday two. Their next four matches see them take on Leipzig, Dinamo, Club Bruges and Young Boys, who have won two of their 12 combined games.
• Sporting are one of seven sides to pick up seven points from three matches and have a 39 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight after wins over Lille and Sturm Graz. Tough tests await with Manchester City and Arsenal visiting in their next two games, and they end their league campaign with comparatively straightforward fixtures against Leipzig, Bologna and Club Bruges.
• Stuttgart are dark horses for a top-eight finish, with a 1-0 win over Juventus improving their chances of direct qualification into the last-16 stage to 21 per cent (from nine per cent before the match). Three of their remaining five matches are against teams yet to pick up a point (Red Star, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava).

(Top photo: Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)