As Liverpool paraded their Carabao Cup success, among Chelsea’s “blue billion-pound bottlejobs” were £200million-worth of talent who, but for some unexpected twists of the transfer market, might be wearing Arsenal red.
In the January transfer window of 2023, Mykhailo Mudryk and Moises Caicedo were both wanted by Arsenal. Chelsea pipped them to the signing of the Ukrainian, so Arsenal turned their attention to Caicedo. Their failure to agree a January deal with Brighton & Hove Albion — and the decision to return their focus to their primary target, Declan Rice — allowed Chelsea to sign Caicedo last summer.
Many Arsenal supporters were initially frustrated about losing both players to a London rival, particularly in the case of Mudryk. That was a transfer saga that unfurled over months, with the player publicly expressing his admiration for Arsenal and manager Mikel Arteta via social media.
Having failed to land Mudryk or Caicedo, however, Arsenal pivoted to sign Leandro Trossard and Jorginho. As Chelsea’s mega-signings have struggled to make an impact, Trossard and Jorginho have become hugely valuable members of the Arsenal squad. The inability to sign Caicedo left room in the squad and budget to pursue Rice, who has been instrumental since arriving at the Emirates Stadium.
Brighton were none-too-impressed with Arsenal’s negotiation tactics in the talks over Caicedo, but had Arsenal successfully brokered a deal for the Ecuador international, paying a further £105million ($133m) for Rice would have been improbable. There is an alternate reality in which Manchester City were granted a free run at the former West Ham United captain. With Rice in their ranks, the Premier League might already be a procession.
As Liverpool celebrated their cup success, Arsenal fans took to social media to crow about two blue bullets dodged.
Arsenal have undoubtedly had the better return on their investments thus far. Mudryk and Caicedo could ultimately cost Chelsea £203.5m in transfer fees alone. Trossard and Jorginho cost a combined £39m. Even Rice came in £10m cheaper than Caicedo’s British record fee of £115m.
But it would be too simplistic to put this down to foresight on Arsenal’s behalf. They really wanted Mudryk and Caicedo. In the case of the Ukraine forward, Arsenal were prepared to smash their transfer record by matching Chelsea’s €100m (£86m, $109m) offer, albeit with a different payment schedule and add-ons that Shakhtar Donetsk considered less realistic.
Technical director Edu and Arteta were utterly convinced of Mudryk’s talent. They believed he could provide them with a third flying winger to complement Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka.
And perhaps, had he arrived at Arsenal, we would be watching a very different player. The step from Ukrainian football to the Premier League is steep, but Arsenal had a clear plan for the winger. They knew he would require patience and development. Who knows how Mudryk might have fared in a more stable environment and a more established tactical model than what he walked into at Stamford Bridge?
Throughout the saga, Mudryk did not hide his preferred destination. When the deal did not materialise, Arsenal’s understanding was that the player was devastated. You can’t help but wonder how different things might be had he got the move he wanted. Mudryk still has admirers at Arsenal, who believe his audacious talent can still be unlocked. Whether it will ever happen in the Premier League is another question and as far as joining Arsenal goes, that ship appears to have sailed.
As for Caicedo, while he has been adequate at Chelsea, he certainly hasn’t come close to justifying his enormous transfer fee — or to emulating Rice’s dominant performances for Arsenal.
There are lessons to be learned here. The first is the importance of a good backup plan. Arsenal deserve credit for pivoting swiftly to Trossard and Jorginho. It can be dangerous to attach too much importance to a particular transfer target — you run the risk of overpaying or even ending up with nothing.
Jorginho and Leandro Trossard have both made significant impacts at Arsenal (Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Then there’s the value of a known quantity. Mudryk had relatively little senior football experience. Caicedo had impressed in the Premier League but was still only 21 when Chelsea made him the most expensive player in British football. Trossard, Jorginho and Rice are all older, more established performers. There is a reason clubs target young players — they have room to develop and retain or increase their value — at least in theory. In practice, there can be a real benefit to balancing that by recruiting experienced, mature players.
And finally, there is the peculiar alchemy of any transfer. Even in this world of advanced scouting and data analytics, there is still a certain degree of risk in any deal. However convinced a club may be about a player’s talent, it remains impossible to accurately predict how that talent will react to a change in environment. It’s what makes these £100m deals so perilous — you’re paying an enormous premium for a performance level you can’t guarantee.
Perhaps Arsenal did dodge a couple of bullets here, but they didn’t feel like that at the time. There was considerable internal disappointment at their failure to land both players.
Arsenal have been rightly praised for their transfer strategy, but sometimes you just get lucky.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
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