The 2024 MLS regular season concluded on Saturday, with a madcap Decision Day serving as an emphatic finale. It took 240 days, including the month-long pause for the Leagues Cup – and the playoffs will soon overshadow those months of accomplishment. Between its duration and the sheer sprawl of the 29-team competition, it can be hard for players who aren’t of a superstar caliber to stand out.
Thankfully, the underlying numbers allow unsung heroes to get a bit of the limelight. For reasons both good and bad, these players were at the top of some very specific categories and helped add color to the season.
Note: all categories required at least 900 regular season minutes to qualify. Auxiliary competitions like the U.S. Open Cup, Canadian Championship, Leagues Cup, Campeones Cup, preseason world tours and international play are not included.
The xG Overperformer Award: Lionel Messi
Expected goals (xG) is a measure of chance creation rather than shooting. Chances leave the rest up to the shooter and a good player should be expected to meet or exceed their xG based on what they’ve been fed.
Sometimes, looking at xG overperformance (goals minus expected goals) helps unearth a surprise goalscorer who could be even better with more dependable service in future years. This is not one of those times.
No player outperformed their xG more than Lionel Messi, the patron saint of outperforming mortal expectations. The Argentinian’s 19 non-penalty goals exceeded his non-penalty xG by 7.96, giving him a comfortable lead over every other player in MLS.
Rest assured, this is the only category Messi will take home in this piece, but we had to get this one out of the way early.
The Anti-Messi: xG Underperformance Award
Just as the greats can show their value by overperforming their xG, consistently underperforming xG suggests an obvious upgrade is required. Unfortunately for these players, their xG suggests a woeful goal return has less to do with the service they received and is either self-inflicted or just plain bad luck.
Vanzeir struggled with converting shots for the Red Bulls this season (Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images)
That misfortune is Dante Vanzeir’s to bear, as the New York Red Bulls striker’s four goals was -4.27 below his xG total. His 7.7% shot conversion rate was MLS’ sixth-poorest among players with at least as many goals as the Belgian.
Elsewhere, three of this season’s seven top xG underperformers play for D.C. United: Ted Ku-DiPietro (3rd, -3.68), Jacob Murrell (6th, -2.82) and Jared Stroud (7th, -2.59). They could have avoided Decision Day heartbreak if they could have called on a more dependable sidekick for Golden Boot winner Christian Benteke.
While goals and assists win headlines and cheers always follow a save or crunching tackle, the steady bassline of the game is often found through dribbles.
Not all dribbles are created equal, either. It’s one thing to run around in your defensive third after a goal kick to accrue some unnecessary yardage, but showing some industry to push upfield is a more noble pursuit. A progressive carry sees a dribbler take the ball at least five yards closer to the opponent’s goal and no MLS field player was more progressive than Patrick Agyemang.
Taken 12th overall in the 2023 SuperDraft by Charlotte FC, Agyemang took MLS Next Pro by storm as a rookie and has quickly assimilated into the big league. This season, 34.3% of his 338 carries made it at least five yards closer to goal, one of just four players to be so direct with at least 30% of their carries. He wasn’t a one-trick pony, either, bagging his 10th goal of the season on Decision Day (outperforming his xG by +1.74) to pair with his six assists. At 23, he’s one to keep in mind for the broader U.S. striker pool.
Physicality is inevitable in the sport of soccer. Throwing 22 players into one plot of land is bound to cause some collisions. And yet, some players just happen to have a greater magnetic pull than most. These players’ actions are often soundtracked by the referee’s whistle, followed either by satisfied applause from home fans or jeering when playing away.
Riqui Puig was fouled more than any other player this season (Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)
This year, no player drew more whistles than Riqui Puig. The LA Galaxy midfielder led MLS in raw totals (83) and with his rate of 2.94 fouls per 90 minutes. When you orchestrate high-powered attacks through your dribbling, it’s just part of the job.
Most True Tackles: Wilder Cartagena
In that spirit, the most remarkable tackles tend to come in the heart of the pitch. This season felt like a down year for defensive midfielders in MLS, as the old guard continues to wane without a similarly stout group to follow. Still, it wasn’t a total bust thanks to some players who aren’t afraid to get stuck in.
True tackles measure exactly that, combining raw tackle data with instances when a defender is either shaken by the ball-handler or commits a foul in the process. Nobody outmuscled Wilder Cartagena, with the Orlando City midfielder registering 9.69 true tackles per 1,000 touches logged by his opponents. The Peru international helped keep Orlando City in the East’s top four places at season’s end, often doing the thankless task between the boxes.
If dribbling feels increasingly rare in modern soccer, then the long throw into the box borders on extinction. No league in the world should be fonder of this trick than MLS considering the domestic player pool grows up watching quarterbacks and pitchers hone their craft. Nevertheless, using a throw-in to create chaos in the box is a proven threat and MLS always has a few specialists among its ranks.
Minnesota United defender Devin Padelford is a long-throw specialist for the Loons (Brad Rempel, USA TODAY Sports)
It was a big year for Minnesota United homegrown Devin Padelford, who shifted from left-back to a central role. He improved defensively and regularly stayed on the field long enough to unleash his best party trick. The 21-year-old averaged 2.89 long box throws per 90 minutes, nearly a full heave higher than second-ranked Keegan Rosenberry (2.06).
A change to Eric Ramsay’s system from a back three to a back four saw Padelford spend much of the home stretch as a substitute, making just one start after the Leagues Cup after logging 17 beforehand. If you see him come off the bench late in a game this postseason, however, prepare to see some long-range lobs.
Some final balls look more dangerous than others and the underlying data backs this up with xG. Another measure is Opta’s ‘big chance’ tally, which includes penalties, one-on-ones or shots taken from very close range with a clear path to goal and low to moderate pressure. If those latter criteria are met, a scorer would have to give their distributor a big thanks.
Of the 126 players who created at least five big chances, none saw a greater share of their total chances meet Opta’s benchmark than Paul Rothrock. The Seattle Sounders forward became a cult hero in his home state thanks to his timely finishing in big moments. He also had a big chance rate of 57.1%, often manifesting when sending in crosses from the left side of the box or nearby.
A lesser-heralded nod than goalkeeper of the year or most clean sheets is cross-prevention. Snuffing out the aerial route is a necessary part of being a goalkeeper. Of those who started at least half of their team’s games, no shot-stopper was more proactive at defending in the air than Maxime Crepeau of the Portland Timbers.
The Canada international managed to claim or punch 9.7% of the 329 crosses into his box, well above the league average of 6.2%. He only misplayed three crosses, with a 91% success rate.
Had we stuck to the 900-minute sample baseline, the leader would have been Gavin Beavers of Real Salt Lake, who had a 9.9% claim rate in 990 minutes. While he largely backed up Zac MacMath this season, the 19-year-old is one to watch for his homegrown club and the USMNT.
This year, 1,733 yellow cards were issued without the infractor making a further ruckus. And yet, there were 39 instances where a player was sent packing for that failure to recalibrate — and nobody did it more than Federico Bernardeschi.
After being a highly paid part of Toronto FC’s meltdown in 2023, Bernardeschi was recast as a right wing-back under John Herdman. The former Italy international put in a season worthy of Best XI consideration, leading Toronto in both goals and assists (eight in each category). He was also sent off three times for drawing a second yellow. Don’t pin the club’s failure to return to the playoffs on his flare-ups, though— the Reds dropped just one point after his departures.
There’s a cliche that you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. It doesn’t account for the harsh reality that some players also miss 100% of the ones they do attempt.
This season, no player shot in vain more often than Joseph Rosales, who sent in 36 attempts without registering a single goal.
Not every player can ripple the net, but Rosales stayed on the field thanks to his all-around game. The Honduran became a dependable answer at left-back for Ramsay, logging 2,404 minutes thanks largely to his progressive play, dead-ball ability and timely defending.
(Top photos: Geoff Burke, Steven Bisig / Imagn Images)
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