MLS transfer deadline day is fast approaching, new roster rules are incoming, and a star player is once again missing. There’s lots to cover, so let’s get right to answering your questions.
Transfer window deadline lookahead
“Will any team make a big move before the window ends? Also any rumblings or movement about the Fire?” —Victor S.
“Do you think the Houston Dynamo will sign a DP or any attacking player?” —Charles T.
“Tom please, are Austin FC going to do anything significant this season?” —Andrew
The MLS primary transfer window is still open, in case you forgot. It closes on Tuesday, but I’m not expecting much movement in these final days.
Typically, these winter windows follow a pattern:
- A ton of moves in December leading up to preseason opening in early January
- Another big push to get players in before opening day in late February
- A bit of a lull in March after the first two weeks of the season, with deals being wrapped up
- Then, maybe, a little flurry in the last two weeks of the window as teams get desperate and injuries happen
I don’t see storms brewing on the transfer front for a few reasons. First, there aren’t a ton of teams that have both desperation and urgency. It’s two different things. San Jose is probably desperate for their slow start to turn around, but does that translate to urgency for new signings to fix it? I’m not so sure.
One team to watch is Charlotte FC, who is working on adding a winger via the U-22 initiative, sources briefed on the situation tell The Athletic. Charlotte can hold this ammunition for the summer, alongside their open DP spot, though.
Another team is the Houston Dynamo. The club has been working on a couple deals over the last few weeks. One is reportedly getting done — Jefferson Valverde, a 24 year old defensive midfielder from LDU Quito, as reported by Michael Rosero — and the other remains to be seen.
The latter would be a young attacker for their open U-22 initiative slot, but that search remains up in the air. It could very easily be kicked to the summer if no progress is made soon.
San Jose remains in the market for a DP No. 10 and is off to an awful start, but we’ll see if anything happens before next week. St. Louis City could use another option in the attack, but my expectation is we won’t see that happen until the summer.
The second reason not to expect many big moves is that the summer will have much greater flexibility, thanks to new rule changes on the way.
The new rules, as reported in great detail by The Athletic’s Paul Tenorio last week, are set to be in effect as the secondary transfer window opens on July 18. Which leads us to our next question…
Which team will make most with rule changes?
“Which club will improve the most with the roster rule changes that will be happening this summer?” —Rusty M.
A quick summary of the new rules passed by the MLS board of governors last week, pending MLSPA approval:
- Teams can now have three senior DPs and three U-22 initiative slots; OR two senior DPs, four U-22 initiative slots and $2 million general allocation money (GAM)
- Two contract buyouts per season (up from one)
- Teams can convert up to $3 million of a player sale to GAM
Generally speaking, the teams with the highest discretionary spend will benefit the most — teams investing the heaviest on transfer fees, DP salaries and buyouts. That’s a boring answer and one you probably came up with on your own, but it’s true. Atlanta United, Chicago Fire, Inter Miami, Toronto FC, LA Galaxy and FC Cincinnati come to mind. Charlotte could enter that group with an opulent summer. Portland to a slightly lesser extent. NYCFC for young players.
There’s a big drop off from Atlanta and Chicago to the next group. It’s difficult to overstate the appetite for spending at those two clubs, for better (Thiago Almada, Hugo Cuypers) or worse (Ezequiel Barco, Jairo Torres). Both of these clubs would have made full use of the new buyout rule in recent years. The good news is they’re not afraid to spend but the bad news is using buyouts means not only did the signing in question not work, but it’s so bad that they couldn’t be offloaded in a trade or transfer.
In the near-term (like this summer)? Atlanta, with the combination of money to spend plus having Garth Lagerwey at the top of the organization. Have they missed on a signing since he arrived last winter?
Atlanta can now either bring in another U-22 initiative signing or add a senior DP to an already loaded squad. The club assumes it will have to replace Almada at some point in the near future and will be ready to do so this summer if a big offer comes from Europe for their star man, but now they could bring in a new senior DP without having to wait for Almada to leave, if they so desire.
Chicago is in this boat too, but their recent track record has not been nearly as strong as Atlanta’s. Still, being able to add another senior DP is big for this group, which is crying out for a new chance creator as Xherdan Shaqiri continues to disappoint. In the winter, their only option was to add a young DP. Now they can add a senior DP, fresh off spending $12 million for Cuypers, or invest in another pair of U-22 initiative signings.
Cincinnati may stand to benefit, as well. The club needed to loan out Marco Angulo just to open a U-22 initiative slot, but now they can sign up to three U-22 players to bolster their depth and quality, while flexing their discretionary spend. They are in the market for an attacking boost.
Lastly, Inter Miami can now add another senior DP if they want but I’m interested to see how they’ll approach the summer. They could do that — and I’m sure Tata Martino would push for that direction — but keeping just the two senior DPs to add a fourth U-22 initiative slot plus $2 million of sweet, sweet allocation money? That might be the better play long-term.
Remember, Gregore and Kamal Miller were moved on before opening day because of salary cap constraints. Another $2 million GAM surely won’t hurt that annual roster dance as long as Lionel Messi and friends are around.
Rey-no-show
“What should MNUFC do with Reynoso? Massive question for a new front office trying to craft a new vision out of this team.” —Sam M.
Once again, Minnesota United star Emanuel Reynoso has gone AWOL.
The attacking midfielder was due to attend a green card meeting on March 25 in Argentina, but skipped it. He remains in South America. Last year, Reynoso showed up four months late(!) for the 2023 season and missed nearly half of Minnesota’s MLS games.
Reynoso was integrated back into the team quickly upon return and eventually looked like the same game-changing attacker he has since signing for the club in 2020, but bridges seem like they’re being torched this time around.
This latest absence comes after he got a clean slate from a new regime in CSO Khaled El-Ahmad and head coach Eric Ramsay, both of whom joined this year.
“Our entire focus is on the players and staff who are here,” said El-Ahmad.
Ramsay echoed that sentiment when asked again this week: “I want to focus on this group and these players and the staff that are here.”
Reynoso was fined without pay last season until he returned. The club could void the contract due to breach, opening a DP spot and saving the money committed to their highest-paid player, but the club also spent a $5 million transfer fee to get him here in the first place.
It’s why there was such a strong argument that after he rehabilitated his image a bit with a half-season of normal play last year that the club could have sought a transfer abroad in the offseason. It’s very unlikely Minnesota would have recouped their $5 million investment, but it’s certainly more than what they could be looking at now.
Reynoso is one of the most talented and joyous players in the league when he’s playing. He’s been responsible for taking Minnesota to new heights, including ever so close to making MLS Cup in 2020, losing in the Western Conference final to Seattle after taking a 2-0 lead.
Reynoso just can’t be relied on anymore. Minnesota is moving in a new direction, full steam ahead.
Dream GM job?
“If you were to take over as a GM of any team, what’s the one team you think you could do the most with?” —Flordecke
The obvious answers include LA Galaxy/LAFC (money, glamor and natural pull of Los Angeles), Atlanta United (money, fan base), Inter Miami (Messi and friends, South Beach), NYCFC (backing of City Football Group, though not a ton of individual freedom for changes) just to name a few, but give me any pick at this exact moment and I’d take San Diego FC.
How cool would it be to build a roster completely from scratch? Nothing to rebuild, nothing to offload. Just a clean slate. You have SoCal living as a strong recruiting tool, and being right on the Mexico border as a bonus pull to bring in Mexican stars.
It’s why Carlos Avina Ibarolla is ready to leave AS Monaco to take over as sporting director. It’s why Lutz Pfannenstiel was enamored by St. Louis (and turned down overtures from abroad since he got there). It was a dream situation for Mike Jacobs at Nashville and Zoran Krneta at Charlotte. It’s why John Thorrington has been at LAFC since day one.
The most successful expansion clubs have come in with a clear playing philosophy that informed every decision, from head coach to first DP to reserve minimum contracts.
It’s the ultimate test of talent identification and deal-making.
The goose is loose
“Besides Zlatan, who is your favorite all time Swedish MLS player?” —MLS Sweden
What an incredibly specific question, but hell yeah, let’s run with it.
The answer is Gustav Svensson.
Here are two of my favorite Svensson quotes:
- “I have to pick up all the horses— and pretty much cover wherever they’re not, but, I mean I’ve been doing that my whole life.” (via MLSsoccer.com)
- “I’m not afraid of things generally. I’ll fight with anyone that wants to fight me.” (via Seattle Times)
He was integral to the success those Seattle Sounders teams had during his run with the club.
(Photo: Jeremy Olson/ISI Photos/Getty Images)
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