Champions League matchups don’t get much bigger than this: Real Madrid facing Manchester City for a place in the semi-finals.
Madrid will be looking to reassert themselves in this season’s quarter-final after the humiliation of last term’s semi-final against the same opponents. They held City to a 1-1 draw in the first leg of that tie last May but then crumbled in the return game at the Etihad, with Pep Guardiola’s team running out 4-0 winners.
As it was then, the 14-time European champions will play the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday night. And there is much to discuss, from who will play in central defence to what system Carlo Ancelotti might use and where various contract renewals stand.
Here, our Real Madrid writers Mario Cortegana and Guillermo Rai talk about the key issues at the start of a week that will help shape Los Blancos’ season.
Mario Cortegana: I’ve just been at Madrid’s Valdebebas training ground and it wasn’t just any day there. There were 120 people present for Ancelotti’s press conference, 40 of them from non-Spanish media.
All of Madrid’s players trained apart from the injured Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba and Ancelotti gave little away. The first leg on Tuesday will be the Italian’s 200th game as manager in the competition — more than anyone else.
Ancelotti was asked whether he would spring any surprises with his line-up but said he didn’t think there would be “any strange things on my part”.
“I have not communicated anything to the players,” he said. “There is one doubt, nothing more. I will communicate the team tomorrow.”
This has the feel of an early final. I’ve been told that Madrid will ask UEFA if they can use the new-look Bernabeu’s roof for the first leg to make the atmosphere as raucous as possible and fans have organised another spectacular welcome for the team’s arrival at the ground. Supporters dub this ‘La Bussiana’ in Spanglish.
Guillermo Rai: I was watching Ancelotti’s press conference from home and it was noticeable he was more tense than usual. Despite his experience, the Italian admitted he still gets “very nervous” about games like this.
In terms of Tuesday’s atmosphere, there’s been a movement to get everyone to wear white to the stadium. Against Osasuna last month, there was a banner in the Grada Fans’ south stand asking for it, while some players have publicised it on their social media accounts.
Cortegana: It will be the first big night at the new Bernabeu — construction work on the €1.76billion ($1.9bn; £1.5bn) stadium is well advanced compared to this time last year.
There’s another difference to last season’s semi-final against City. There was a sense then that a heavy defeat could bring big consequences for Ancelotti (although the Italian kept his job despite the drubbing in the second leg). This time, with the Supercopa de Espana already won, his team on track to lift La Liga and his deal renewed until 2026, the mood is different.
Moving on to Ancelotti’s starting line-up, there have been no doubts in goal for months after Courtois’ injury problems. Andriy Lunin, who is in the process of renewing his deal (his current one expires in 2025), will start.
Rai: According to sources with knowledge of the negotiations — who, like all those we are talking about, will remain anonymous to protect relationships — we could have positive news about this in a matter of days. Lunin looks confident for the first time since he joined the club in 2018.
Cortegana: That leaves Kepa Arrizabalaga sidelined again — he arrived on loan from Chelsea to fill in for Courtois but is now firmly second-choice behind Lunin. Voices from both the club and his entourage take it for granted that Madrid won’t look to buy him this summer.
Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy are both mainstays on either side of defence and have enjoyed great seasons. Mendy missed both legs of last season’s semi-final against City with injury but is a permanent fixture for Ancelotti when fit.
Ancelotti wants the club to renew the Frenchman’s deal, which expires in 2025, but I have my doubts as to whether they’ll make an offer. The potential arrival of Alphonso Davies could be a factor — unless Bayern Munich ask for an unrealistic amount, it is likely he will join Madrid this summer.
Mendy is a permanent fixture for Ancelotti when fit (Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images)
Rai: Ancelotti has built a strong defence this season compared to last — largely thanks to the full-backs being supported by two midfielders (usually Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham) who drop back when Madrid are defending.
Coaching staff sources describe Mendy as “very underrated” and he has become a key player in defence. In principle, there was a meeting scheduled between the club and the player’s entourage to decide his future, but it remains to be seen who stays and who goes this summer.
Cortegana: There are more doubts for Tuesday in central defence. As The Athletic reported and Ancelotti has since said, the question is which of Nacho or Aurelien Tchouameni will partner Antonio Rudiger.
Tchouameni has played in that unfamiliar position on a number of occasions this season and I think he will start tomorrow — either as a centre-back or in midfield. Madrid haven’t lost this term when he’s been in the starting line-up and Nacho has been disappointing when called upon. Those close to Madrid’s captain say he has serious doubts about whether to stay this summer and is considering potential destinations, including Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, Ancelotti already picked Tchouameni over Nacho against Osasuna last month…
Rai: Club sources even fuelled the debate by saying Tchouameni had the same chance of starting in central defence as Nacho. That doesn’t bode well for the Spaniard considering he is the only other senior centre-back available apart from Rudiger.
It is well-known that Nacho has a strained relationship with Ancelotti, but the last thing I heard from the player’s entourage was that he wanted to stay. If he is a substitute on Tuesday, it will impact the rest of the team’s setup and the midfield will adapt to Tchouameni’s absence. I think Eduardo Camavinga would be a strong choice to partner Toni Kroos, Valverde and Bellingham.
Kroos is in fine form this season (Diego Souto/Getty Images)
Cortegana: Kroos, Valverde and Bellingham are irreplaceable. Someone at the club recently described Kroos to me as “the best” and Valverde as “the most necessary” player. Everyone believes the German will renew his deal for another year, with his contract set to expire in June.
Bellingham has provided the team with a leap in quality despite being just 20 years old. I’m looking forward to seeing him on this, the kind of stage he was signed for — don’t forget he rejected other suitors before joining Madrid, including City, who offered him better financial conditions.
Rai: Unless Ancelotti goes for an unusual system like the 4-5-1 Madrid played in the round-of-16 second leg against RB Leipzig, I see him playing his hybrid 4-4-2 formation. But the gap between those three midfielders mentioned above and the rest is huge, much more so than when they faced Guardiola’s side last year.
At the time, Luka Modric was virtually irreplaceable in big games, but a lot has changed since then — the Croatian’s future is undecided, with his deal running out this summer, and he has started just 17 of the 40 games he has been in the squad for this season. If he continues to play that limited role, those close to him are sure he will decide to leave Madrid.
Brahim Diaz could be an exciting option from the bench or a surprise inclusion, but others such as Dani Ceballos and Arda Guler are a long way from the starting XI.
Camavinga will miss the second leg against City if booked on Tuesday (Robert Michael/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Cortegana: Ancelotti is not a coach who likes to experiment or take risks, so I don’t expect him to change system.
I could see him starting Camavinaga on the bench to protect him — the Frenchman would miss the return leg if he picked up another yellow card, like Tchouameni, Bellingham and Vinicius Junior. But on Monday, Ancelotti assured reporters he was not concerned by that prospect.
Vinicius Jr scored a brilliant goal in the semi-final first leg against City last year and another in the previous campaign’s epic semi-final between the sides. He has been involved in 14 goals in 16 games against English opposition and will lead the line with Rodrygo. The latter is back in form and has fond memories of scoring a brace against City to inspire that comeback in 2022.
Joselu and Brahim would be the smartest options from the bench. They are two players who have given more to the team than the coaching staff expected, which is why they see them as key to what Los Blancos have already achieved this season and what is to come.
Rai: The biggest question marks this season have hung over Rodrygo given some inconsistent scoring spells, but for Ancelotti, he has always been far ahead of Brahim and Joselu. Both those players are doing everything right, but Madrid is Madrid — sometimes you have to settle for being a luxury supporting player.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
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