Barcelona’s Champions League turning point: Who will Xavi pick for Napoli tie?

This is the ‘moment of truth’ for Barcelona. Today’s Champions League tie against Napoli is, without a shadow of a doubt, the most important game of what’s left of their season.

Leaders Real Madrid are essentially out of reach in La Liga and Barca have already been knocked out in the Copa del Rey, leaving Europe as the only front that remains.

Last month’s last-16 first leg at Napoli — Barca’s first appearance in the Champions League knockout stage since 2021 when they still had Lionel Messi — ended in a 1-1 draw. Going through to the quarter-finals would significantly lift spirits around the club and go some way towards dealing with the lingering trauma of recent European failure.

But there’s also a significant financial dimension to this game — which provides arguably the most urgent reason Barca must win.

Qualifying for the next round would secure a further €15million (£12.8m; $16.4m) in prize money and Barcelona have already counted on achieving that in their budget for this season. Having to cover for further shortfalls in their already stricken finances would bring another major headache. They are already facing up to the prospect of having to sell this summer to bring themselves in line with La Liga’s salary limit rules.

The Napoli tie is seen inside the club as one of the main reasons Xavi has stayed in his role since announcing he would step down at the end of the season. The Catalan manager wanted to make sure his team can complete the step forward in Europe they have been craving.

But they will have to do it without two of their best players, with Frenkie de Jong and Pedri out injured, and there is lots of talk about what Barca’s starting line-up should be.

Here, The Athletic’s Barcelona correspondents Laia Cervello Herrero and Pol Ballus discuss the tough decisions Xavi will need to make — including whether to stick with his team’s teenage sensations.

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Pol: One of the few positions we don’t need to discuss much is the goalkeeper. There’s no doubt Marc-Andre ter Stegen is going to start, but there’s a bigger question around the defensive line.

Before the first leg, the main talking point was whether Xavi would trust 17-year-old Pau Cubarsi or Inigo Martinez at centre-back. He finally chose the former Athletic Bilbao player.

Laia: I think Xavi’s trust in Cubarsi is very clear and I have no doubts he’ll become an undisputable starter sooner rather than later this season, but in a game like this against Napoli, where the team has almost an obligation to win, I’d say Xavi will go for the same decision he took in the first leg: more experience and Martinez starting.

Cubarsi is a hugely talented but inexperienced kid playing in a role where one mistake can sink your team. That’s a lot of pressure. I also believe Martinez has performed at a very good level whenever he’s been needed. About the other names at the back, I don’t think there’s any doubt: Jules Kounde as a right-back, Joao Cancelo left-back and Ronald Araujo as the other central defender.

Pol: I agree with the last three names but disagree on Araujo’s defensive partner. I think Cubarsi will be picked because all the narrative on Martinez being the most experienced and reliable choice fell down in the first leg, where Napoli’s equaliser came from a mistake from the 32-year-old while trying to mark Victor Osimhen.

And then there’s also Xavi wanting to prove a point before leaving in June. His trust in La Masia will be one of his greatest legacies and the way Yamal and Cubarsi have performed shows they should be the path for the future. Tuesday’s game is a final, but Xavi is a brave manager and I’m sure he’ll want to play a make-or-break game with his preferred choices.

Laia: There’s also the fact that, in recent weeks, voices from the coaching staff have highlighted how important it is to sensibly manage the youngsters to avoid what has happened with Ansu Fati and Pedri. They don’t want to overuse them. Cubarsi, due to his position on the pitch, would be very exposed and up against an improved Napoli side from the first leg with explosive quality up front. It is a risk.

Pol: Let’s move on to midfield, where we have an interesting jigsaw to complete…

Laia: Andreas Christensen and Ilkay Gundogan have pretty much guaranteed spots in there.

Pol: Yes they do, but there’s still one free and in the attacking line, the situation is quite similar. Robert Lewandowski and Yamal are expected to start, but there is a place up for grabs on the left flank.

Laia: I have the feeling Joao Felix will take that place in the front three. In midfield, I have doubts between Fermin Lopez and Raphinha, but I’d say Xavi will reposition the latter as an attacking midfielder.

Despite all the guaranteed effort Lopez brings, he has been far from his best recently. His game against Athletic Bilbao (in La Liga on March 3) was not great and I don’t see him being a player who can last the full game. Hosting Napoli with three starters who practically have landed in the first team this season might be a gamble.

Raphinha is a player who needs to step up, with Yamal excelling on the right wing. He needs to prove he can be useful in other roles. That’s extra motivation for him and Xavi will be aware of this. He played fantastically three weeks ago against Getafe, too.

Pol: After what we witnessed last Friday against Mallorca, I’d be surprised if Xavi gives Joao Felix the start. He looked disconnected from the team and sloppy on the ball. He has not shown anything on the pitch to make you think he’s the right choice.

Joao Felix’s greatest moments in 2024 have arrived from the bench: the Supercopa de Espana semi-final v Osasuna and the La Liga match at Real Betis where he scored a last-minute winner.

Leaving him out, there are not many options to pick from. I’ll say Fermin Lopez will start in midfield next to Gundogan and that we’ll see Raphinha as a left-winger. Then you’d have Joao Felix and Vitor Roque on the bench if you need a goal and Oriol Romeu if you need to defend.

Laia: With Joao Felix, there’s an element in him that could work for tonight: I think he is a big-match player. He finds motivation on the greatest stage. He showed that against Atletico Madrid, where he wanted to show Diego Simeone his worth, and then in the Champions League group stage against Porto at home. Napoli might be the final massive game for Barca this season. That’s why I can see him starting ahead of Lopez despite being out of form.

Pol: It would surely be a huge test for Lopez, but I think he already had one starting in October’s home Clasico, where he put in a very decent performance. Then with Raphinha, he will always give you excellent work off the ball, which I think is a must in the first 60 minutes at least. After that, if you need more offensive spark or any change of script, you have the tools to do it.

(Top photo: Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images)