All the usual twists and turns have made the battle for the Premier League’s European places particularly intriguing heading into the final few days of the season.
The top four looks all-but sewn up; Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool will definitely play Champions League football next term and Aston Villa may not need even another point to join them.
Tottenham Hotspur looked to be providing the sternest challenge to Unai Emery’s side but four consecutive defeats, before they beat Burnley on Saturday, left them staring at a place in the Europa League instead — especially after English sides botched their chances to secure an extra spot in next season’s Champions League.
To secure that, though, Spurs need to fend off the two teams chasing them from below — Newcastle United and Chelsea, two teams who Manchester United can still surpass in the standings. Two of the four will earn a Europa League spot, one will play in the Conference League and one will miss out on European football entirely.
| Pos | Team | GP | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 |
36 |
12 |
63 |
|
|
6 |
36 |
22 |
57 |
|
|
7 |
36 |
12 |
57 |
|
|
8 |
36 |
-4 |
54 |
This article was updated following the weekend’s Premier League matches.
How does Europa League qualification work?
There are two places given to English sides in each season’s Europa League. One is given to the FA Cup winners and the other is given to the team that finishes fifth in the Premier League.
In the instance that the FA Cup winners finish in the Premier League top five, the Europa League position is given to the sixth-placed team.
Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea supporters will be cheering on Manchester City in the FA Cup final (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Tottenham are fifth in the table heading into the final few fixtures and will be expecting to finish the season in that position. As for the FA Cup, the final will be played between Manchester City and Manchester United for the second successive year.
If Manchester City win it, the sixth-placed team in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League. If United win the FA Cup, they will play in the Europa League next season.
What about the Conference League?
Only one English team plays in the Conference League each season.
The rules state that the Carabao Cup winners are given that Conference League spot. But, in every season since Europe’s third-tier club competition started in 2021, that place has been deferred to the Premier League table because of the Carabao Cup winners finishing in the top six, and therefore securing a spot in the Europa League or the Champions League via their league finish.
Liverpool won this season’s Carabao Cup final back in February (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
This season’s FA Cup final therefore presents a potentially interesting twist. If Manchester City win on May 25, the Conference League spot will go to the team which finishes seventh in the Premier League.
But if Manchester United win, and finish outside of the top six, the sixth-placed team will get the place. If United win the FA Cup and finish in the top six, it will again go to the team in seventh.
The state of play
Despite their awful form, Tottenham are still strongly fancied to finish fifth. One more point from their two games will guarantee them a Europa League place, while two will be enough if Manchester City win the FA Cup. Spurs still have a chance of finishing fourth, if they win both their remaining games and Villa lose theirs.
Ange Postecoglou’s side squeezed past 19th-placed Burnley with a 2-1 win on Saturday, and now face a home game against Manchester City and a trip to already-relegated Sheffield United to close out the season.
Newcastle’s run of four wins in their last five games, which had put them back in the mix for a Europa League place, came to an end on Saturday with a disappointing home draw against Brighton & Hove Albion. That 1-1 draw opened the door for Chelsea and Manchester United to catch them, with the former’s 3-2 victory at Nottingham Forest later on Saturday drawing them level on points with the north-east side. However, Newcastle’s vastly superior goal difference means that they remain in sixth with two games remaining.
Chelsea’s 3-2 win at Forest was their third in a row in the Premier League (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Chelsea still need Newcastle to drop points in their final two games and hope they can capitalise in their remaining fixtures.
The same is also true of Manchester United, who are three points back and remain eighth in the standings following Sunday’s defeat at home to Arsenal. Manchester United may be boosted by hosting Newcastle in their penultimate match, but their torrid campaign is perhaps best illustrated by their -4 goal difference, which may prove decisive in missing out on European football next season.
Erik ten Hag’s side need an immediate upturn in form and slip-ups from the teams above to make it into either the Europa League or Conference League — or to secure an unlikely FA Cup victory with a win over Manchester City in the final…
Remaining fixtures
Wednesday’s match at Old Trafford could be crucial in this European battle…
Tuesday, May 14 and Wednesday, May 15
- Tottenham vs Manchester City
- Brighton vs Chelsea (Weds)
- Manchester United vs Newcastle (Weds)
Sunday, May 19
- Brentford vs Newcastle
- Brighton vs Manchester United
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Sheffield United vs Tottenham
Predictions
*This prediction will be updated following the conclusion of all the matches in gameweek 37.*
In their model for how the Premier League table will finish, which was last updated ahead of the gameweek 37 fixtures, Opta actually do not expect much to change between now and next weekend.
Opta’s predicted finishes
| Team | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
86% |
8.4% |
1% |
0% |
|
|
7.3% |
58.1% |
23.3% |
11.3% |
|
|
1.8% |
21.8% |
51% |
25% |
|
|
0.3% |
11.8% |
24.4% |
60.1% |
(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
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