He walks upright and appears even more vertical when he breaks stride. With a posture so straight that, along with a name like Oliver George Arthur Watkins, he would not look out of place in the old film reels you see of a British gentleman accompanied by a cane in the Victorian era.
His natural gait is lean and his head undeviatingly still. It is fixed forward, with long, loose arms and the broad shoulders of a swimmer. When Watkins is scoring, celebrating and being the striker who propelled England to the final of Euro 2024, his posture appears even more pronounced, even more cerebral.
Any slight change to that stance can feel pronounced. Lately, as Jhon Duran’s machismo has grown, Watkins has ever so slightly slumped, often coming off and taking his place on the bench. His shoulders turn inwards and the Watkins who was the best out-an-out No 9 in the Premier League behind Erling Haaland last season does not feel quite so imposing.
His standing sits in an odd place. On the face of it, seven goals in 15 league appearances remains an excellent return, but his value — externally at least — has diminished since Duran’s bludgeoning emergence. Watkins has been substituted 10 times this season and, physically, does not appear as sharp or clinical.
Villa’s thrilling 3-2 victory away to RB Leipzig provided a microcosm of Watkins and Duran’s respective campaigns. Watkins runs earnestly and his movement is intelligent — leading to a fine headed assist for John McGinn’s opener — but his contributions do not equal Duran’s spectacular involvement.
The England international targeted Lutsharel Geertruida, a player Villa had looked at over the summer, and his in-to-out runs were frequently found. His success prompted Geertruida to switch to the left of central defence in a bid to escape, yet the striker simply followed him. He had a goal ruled out for offside and another shot was struck firmly at goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi.
Watkins takes on Geertruida (Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Watkins has been at his most ruthless when safe in the knowledge he is Villa’s undisputed forward. Visibly, it meant a lot when Unai Emery decided he was content, three months after joining, for Danny Ings to be sold and for Watkins to be his sole striker.
The 28-year-old is akin to a goalkeeper in that he is most comfortable when the consensus knows he is first choice. Different personality types are stimulated by different motivational tools and this is how Watkins feels at ease.
Matching the heights of 2023-24 and his tally of 19 league goals was invariably going to be an onerous task and a curtailed pre-season did not help. He had a week between returning late — owing to England’s Euros campaign — and the opening day fixture away to West Ham. In that time, Watkins picked up a small niggle, meaning he did not play any friendlies and had a handful of training sessions.
But he has been overshadowed by all the talk about Duran. The Colombian invites chaos, attracts headlines and is the chief protagonist in Villa’s season so far. Emery and his players have been asked more questions about him than anyone else.
“He comes off the bench and causes chaos and scores goals,” said eventual match-winner Ross Barkley to Amazon Prime. “We have got two top strikers fighting to start.”
Watkins had a “small injury”, according to Emery, at half-time in Leipzig with Duran duly replacing him. His first effort less than three minutes later skewed wide, but the miss did not perturb a striker with an inherent desire to shoot from most angles.
Before the trip to Germany, he had attempted more shots (nine) and scored more Champions League goals (two) than any Villa player, despite only being on the pitch for 35 per cent of available minutes.
His goal — a 25-yard strike — perfectly captured Duran, the footballer and person. His showmanship is alluring. He folded his arms in celebration and Villa supporters bellowed his name.
Duran shoots on goal in Leipzig (Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The Colombia international believes he is the club’s best forward, which belies the reality that, in 50 league games, he has started four times. “He wants everything so fast,” Emery has repeated.
Incrementally, Duran’s minutes have increased, vindicating the talks held between him and Villa over the summer. Senior figures discussed him playing more, helping to persuade Duran to stay and sign a new long-term contract.
This has had a direct consequence on Watkins’ playing time. On average last season, Duran was introduced in the 77th minute. This term, he has been brought on 10 minutes earlier. The 20-year-old has already played 93 more minutes coming on as a substitute than he did throughout the entirety of the 2023-24 campaign.
Watkins remains Emery’s favoured option. His skillset presently outweighs that of Duran, with his pressing intelligence, positioning and link-play more polished. Duran flapped his arms at Morgan Rogers for not pressing and Leipzig’s second goal stemmed from his cheap giveaway, even though team-mates were passive in halting the resulting counter-attack.
Still, it has not alleviated the growing debate among supporters, stirred to greater levels following the victory against Southampton three days earlier.
Watkins was rested, affording Duran a rare league start. The Englishman was introduced on the hour mark but missed a bundle of chances. In mitigation, Watkins’ four shots from close range only registered an expected goals (xG) rate of 0.32, suggesting they were hardly clean-cut opportunities.
More broadly, however, he has underperformed his season’s xG. Watkins’s seven league goals have been at 10.61 xG; in other words, he should have scored three more goals. In comparison, Duran has over-performed, scoring five goals from 4.20 xG.
Duran looks at home in this competition (Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The glitz and glamour of the Champions League tends to bring out the showmanship in its biggest characters — and Duran is no exception. He had a second goal disallowed for offside, but his tally of six across all competitions as a substitute is twice as many as any other Premier League player.
The discourse around who should be Villa’s No 9 boils down to two aspects: the tried and trusted and the new kid on the block and, more holistically, the tussle between a system-based striker like Watkins or someone who can produce individual brilliance.
“I am just happy to be here and love the competition with Ollie Watkins,” said Duran. “When it is my turn, hopefully I can step up and help the team. We’re so happy to be where we are and we are almost through so we are delighted about that.”
When do Watkins and Duran’s respective trajectories — the former is eight years older — intersect? Can they play together? Evidence so far suggests not, with their partnership disrupting Villa’s structure too much. Yet the key question remains over whether the pair can co-exist.
As it was, victory against Leipzig served as a continuation of Duran being the main character in Villa’s campaign.
(Top photo: Luciano Lima/Getty Images)
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