The only surprise about Erik ten Hag’s departure was the timing.
Manchester United contrived to lose against West Ham United on Sunday having hit the woodwork twice in the first half, missed an open goal at 0-0 and then conceded a controversial late penalty. On another day, it could have been a different result, and Ten Hag would still be in a job.
That’s not to say he was unfortunate, though. It seemed almost guaranteed that United would part ways with the Dutchman at the end of last season. For all the advanced statistics available in football these days, the ultimate reality was that Ten Hag’s Manchester United finished the season with a negative goal difference, a damning indictment of their performance. If you want the underlying numbers too, well, those figures suggest United were fortunate to finish with a goal difference as high as -1. In terms of expected goals against (xGA), a metric that reflects the quality of chances teams concede, they had the sixth-worst defence in the league.
Everyone assumed Ten Hag would depart after the FA Cup final. Reviews of his two-year stint were already written. Ten Hag’s first United victory had come with an underdog-style performance in a 2-1 win against Liverpool, and his final United victory would come with an underdog-style performance in a 2-1 victory against Manchester City in the FA Cup final.
Ten Hag’s side were still happiest playing in that manner, as they had been under Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. United were no closer to finding a defined playing style and there was a sharp decline in performance after Ten Hag’s first season. It was surely time to call it quits.
Instead, the club have wasted the last five months — and so has the manager. Ten Hag could have departed in the summer on a high, having added the FA Cup to his Carabao Cup the previous season and reaching three of four domestic cup finals in his spell. Qualifying for the Champions League one out of two seasons would have been reasonable. He would have received sympathy for the manner of his departure, both because it was seemingly made public before the FA Cup final and because they won it.
Should the 2024 FA Cup final have been Ten Hag’s final game in charge? (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
Instead, this season has been a reminder of United’s problems. Injuries could at least partially blame last season’s poor defensive record but United’s back four have continued to look rash. Lisandro Martinez and Matthijs de Ligt, two of Ten Hag’s Ajax old boys, have been storming into challenges too impetuously.
The midfield issue has never been solved, despite the revelatory breakthrough of Kobbie Mainoo. For all his talent, Mainoo is not a complete footballer at 19 years old. It is extremely rare to see a teenager thriving as a holding midfielder, especially in such a tactically chaotic side. Mainoo has done little wrong, but it has been almost uncomfortable to watch United — and England — place such a huge responsibility on a young player who, at this stage, should merely be learning the ropes from more experienced colleagues.
Casemiro has often looked wretched, especially when forced to cover ground in a side that always looks open in midfield and is particularly vulnerable to cutbacks. Christian Eriksen is a fine footballer but has rarely looked comfortable operating deep. The Mason Mount signing made little sense on paper and has brought almost no benefit.
Despite the individual flaws, it has been a collective problem. This season, United have been overrun in the centre, with a poorly organised 4-2-4 press in a 3-0 defeat by Liverpool and then a passive mid-block in a 3-0 defeat by Tottenham Hotspur.
(Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
The defining feature of Ten Hag’s Ajax side was how the wingers would often link up on either flank to combine, overloading the opposition. There were signs of that in Ten Hag’s first half-season, but little to speak of recently. The wingers look like individuals — and even the odd moment of magic from Alejandro Garnacho cannot be put down to strategy.
The technical leader remains Bruno Fernandes, whose two red cards in back-to-back matches this month overshadow how he has been playing very well, particularly in the games against West Ham and Fulham.
Amid all this — and it is always hard to make this case in hindsight — Ten Hag was a perfectly reasonable appointment. He had never managed in a major league, so it was a gamble, but the risk was calculated. Ajax’s Eredivisie success shouldn’t be taken for granted — they have been desperately poor on either side of his reign but, under his management in the 2018-19 season, they looked like one of the best sides in Europe. There were other, more established candidates available, but United went with the bold option, hoping they had identified an up-and-coming manager with a clear philosophy, rather than a has-been who only cares about results.
Clubs often swing between wildly different types of coaches, overreacting to failures — Tottenham have been particularly guilty of that in recent years — but notably, United don’t look to be going that way. The pursuit of Ruben Amorim (up-and-coming, no experience in a major league, a relatively clear tactical blueprint) shows them going for roughly the same type of figure.
But imposing a particular style of football on Manchester United seems a much tougher task. Solskjaer, Ralf Rangnick and Ten Hag have all failed to do so. Ten Hag at least managed to win two trophies.
(Top photo: John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images)
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