Explained: The Champions League draw, the Swiss Model and how selection is going digital

The Champions League proper returns next month and this season it will have a brand new format.

The ‘Swiss Model’ makes its debut and, as a result, the Champions League draw tomorrow (Thursday) is going to look rather different to the eight-groups-of-four setup we’ve all become used to in recent years.

So let The Athletic take you through everything you need to know about the draw and the new look for UEFA’s flagship club competition.

First, a quick recap. What is the Swiss Model and why are there so many teams now?

The new format has a ‘league phase’ rather than a ‘group phase’. It ditches eight groups of four and crams all the competing clubs together in one massive table. The format is based on the Swiss system used in chess, and does not require every team to play all of the others. 

The number of teams participating increases by four, to 36, with each participant now playing eight matches in the first phase, instead of six in previous iterations. But instead of just three different opponents twice, home and away, teams will face a different team in every game.

In total, there will be 189 matches in the competition proper, capped by the final in Munich on May 31, up from the previous 125. 

UEFA hopes the new format will lead to more competitive fixtures from the off, with bigger games earlier in the tournament because teams from pot one (aka, the big names) will play each other earlier rather than largely being kept apart until the knockout phase in February and March, as happened with the previous format. It will also give teams in pot four more of an opportunity to pick up points, because they will be playing two other sides from that pot among their eight matches.

Once the league phase has been completed, which will now take until late January, the top eight sides in the table will qualify directly for a 16-team knockout round, with the other eight places decided by a newly introduced set of two-leg play-offs contested by the teams who finish between ninth and 24th in the league.

The round of 16 and beyond will now be seeded, so the teams who finish first and second in the league phase cannot face each other until the final.

This year’s lineup was completed last night with seven clubs winning their places via the pre-tournament play-offs.

So how does this change the draw format?

Unlike previous years, where teams were drawn into eight groups from four pots, there will be four pots of nine this year, and they will all be seeded by coefficient. A club’s UEFA coefficient is a score based on the results of teams competing in the five previous seasons of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

There’s one exception to that: the only club who won’t be seeded by coefficient are the Champions League title holders, in this case Real Madrid. They will be the first side drawn.

Also, whereas last time every team was manually drawn, and there would be another manual draw to decide which group they would be put in, the draw will now be almost entirely automated.

All 36 teams will be manually drawn by someone on stage. But when a team come out of the ‘hat’, a button will be pressed and, hey presto, their eight opponents will appear. It will also say whether the team has been drawn to play at home or away (they’ll have four of each).

Each team will face two opponents from each pot, including two from the same one they are in.

This will be repeated until all 36 teams have been drawn. Every team will be drawn once but, as the process moves along, fewer sides will need to be assigned fixtures.

So can teams from the same nation face each other in the first phase now?

No. Or not this season, at least. It is no longer entirely impossible, in theory anyway. But the aim is to ensure that does not happen.

The new automated software will have to follow two UEFA rules. The first is that no club will face another from the same nation — unless there is the possibility of what is called a ‘deadlock’ situation; in other words, if it is impossible to avoid putting those teams together without stopping the draw. This is more likely to happen if one nation had a lot of clubs in the same pot, for example. But there is no risk of that for 2024-25.

The other rule is that it will only be possible to face a maximum of two teams from another association. So you won’t see Manchester City taking on all four Spanish qualifiers.

Manchester City’s group in last season’s draw (Valerio Pennicino – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

Why has UEFA gone digital?

The main reason is to save time.

UEFA says that, if the entire draw was to be completed manually, around 1,000 balls would be spread across at least 36 bowls on stage and the whole process would take more than three hours.

Even digitally, drawing pot one is still expected to take 17 minutes.

“Based on rehearsals we have done, we are expecting some 35 minutes of a draw, which is exactly what he had before,” says Tobias Hedtstuck, UEFA’s head of club competitions and calendar, speaking at the body’s briefing on the new system for the media earlier this month.

That time does not factor in the draw’s presentation and sideshow events.

No changes there yet. Sorry about that.

Who is responsible for the software?

Now for the key question. Who has been crafting this mysterious technology?

UEFA has been working on this draw process for nearly a year. The software will be provided by AE Live, which was appointed as UEFA’s partner for all UEFA draws in September 2023 and tasked with developing and testing the software.

And what, you might ask, is AE Live? Well, it’s a company that works in live sport and provides graphic and technology solutions for the industry and has offices in eight countries.

“When it comes to our experience, we have our in-house teams which have a wealth of experience delivering live services across a range of sports, such as cricket, rugby, badminton and even kabaddi,” says Dave Gill, AE Live’s chief technology officer. “But we do have a particular strength in football, across both international and domestic competitions.”

AE Live has provided draw services for more than 20 years, including for the FA Cup, to FIFA, as well as for the International Olympic Committee and CAF, African football’s governing body. “We are very well qualified to provide this draw solution and to support UEFA in this exciting new development,” Gill says.

Global financial services company Ernst and Young has also been appointed to give an “extra layer of assurance and transparency”, according to Giorgio Marchetti, UEFA’s director of football and deputy general secretary. Ernst and Young have audited and monitored the development of the software, and its personnel will also observe and report on the draw operations itself.

Former England midfielder Joe Cole assists with the Champions League’s final manual draw last season (Claudio Lavenia – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

And what happens if this software crashes?

There are fail-safes in place should issues arise, and also to ensure the draw remains feasible and there is no ‘deadlock’ scenario. That means the software has to ensure it’s still possible to find opponents for everyone else after a team is drawn. It assesses this itself when drawing opponents for a given club.

There are also two independent external checking systems.

“The role of these checking systems is to simply confirm what has already been established: that the rules of the draw have been followed and the draw remains feasible,” said Gordon Vince, chief software architect. “This checking takes no more than a second. As a result of that, we have extra confidence that the rules are being followed and that the draw remains feasible.

“Only then are the teams ready to be revealed.”

What about cyber-attacks?

AE Live says it is taking the risk of a cyber-attack seriously and has put several protections in place to keep the draw secure.

“The draw itself will be conducted in an entirely closed environment,” Gill says. “There will be no external access from external interference for a period of time before the draw and during the draw, so there’s no DDoS (distributed denial-of-service) attack (which can overwhelm the system and cause it to fail). 

“Access to our code, and our code repository, are controlled through multi-factor identification. It’s a very limited amount of people who have access to our code. We’ve just conducted some penetration testing from an external third-party provider to make sure that we are, as a business, as secure as we can be. We’ve done additional risk assessments around the increased risk around cyber-attacks.”

Surely this fancy computer will be biased against (insert your club here)?

UEFA is also trying to ensure everyone feels comfortable with a process that is not visible, which could easily lead to conspiracy chatter.

“That’s why we appointed an external company (Ernst and Young),” says Marchetti, “to confirm not only that the software has been properly set up, and is purely random while respecting the couple of rules that we have, but also to observe the implementation and application of the software, as well as the procedures on the day of the draw.”

Ernst and Young staff will produce a report after the draw. In a statement, the company said: “In our opinion, in all material aspects, the software source code of AE Live selects and allocates football teams randomly and correctly, in accordance with the league-phase digital draw procedure defined by UEFA.”

Real Madrid’s Dani Carvajal brings out the Champions League trophy before the UEFA Super Cup win over Atalanta (Mikoaj Barbanell/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

What are the worst- and best-case scenarios for each club?

The final lineup for the draw won’t be confirmed until after those final four play-off second legs tonight, so only then will we know the final pot positions and risks for each of the 36 teams.

But we do have an idea about how likely it is that a club faces the hardest possible opponents (ie, the top two sides from each pot) and vice versa.

UEFA has estimated that the probability of either happening is 0.00006 per cent. UEFA says that in the previous iteration of the group stage, that probability was 0.2 per cent.

Doing it this way should make the league phase more competitive.

When will we find out the actual fixtures?

This is a key detail for those looking to book flights and hotels as early as possible.

The dates for the fixtures are not going to be released on the same day as the draw.

That information will be announced at some point on Saturday, August 31, in order to ensure the logistical and security dilemmas of the Europa League and Conference League, UEFA’s second- and third-tier club competitions can be taken into account, too. 

“The opponents are selected pot after pot, but the order in which they are displayed does not mean the order of the (match) calendar,” says Marchetti. “The calendar will be decided based on different software; based on hundreds, if not thousands of constraints that we have, such as clubs who play in the same cities, or even the same stadium.”

Each team will play one game at home and one away against sides in each pot. UEFA is aiming to have a “fair and balanced split” between Tuesday and Wednesday matches as well, but this is not guaranteed.

UEFA also wants to spread out the competition’s “top matches”, for spectacle and sporting reasons.

“The key target is that in matchday one and two, or seven and eight, you (a club) should not play two pot-one teams in a row,” says Hedtstuck. “They should spread a little bit. We will try this for all 36 teams. The new system should have a more balanced calendar. Security constraints will have to be prioritised.”

How can we follow it?

The draw will be streamed live for free on UEFA’s website as well as broadcast on their broadcasting partner networks. Those will include TNT Sports in the UK and Paramount in the United States.

When and where is the draw?

The most important detail is saved until last.

The draw is to be held at the Grimaldi Forum, an exhibition centre in Monte Carlo, on the south coast of France, and will be conducted at 5pm BST/12pm ET tomorrow (Thursday, August 29).

The Europa League and Conference League draws, both following the same 36-team format, happen there the following day at 12pm BST/7am ET and 1.30pm BST/8.30am ET respectively.

(Top photo: Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images)