Bayern Munich have signed Michael Olise from Crystal Palace on a five-year contract.
Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finance — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each aspect given a score out of 100, to reach a total score out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500.
Due to Olise’s links to various Premier League sides, including Chelsea and Newcastle United, and the interest around his move, we decided to do a rating of his move to Germany’s Bundesliga, while still employing the same rating system and data as for the rest of the series.
The ratings are explained in more detail here (not all transfers will be rated like this, as there may be a lack of data to support an analysis).
Below is our rating for this move.
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Tactical fit — 57/100
A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically, using Sentient Sports’ bespoke tactical-fit model, explained by our tactical expert.
Olise is an interesting first signing for new head coach Vincent Kompany at Bayern, as the move involves an element of tactical risk for all parties involved.
Having been the hub of Palace’s attack over the past two seasons, Olise will now become the proverbial small fish in an ocean of high-level talent in Munich. There are no doubts about his potential, though, with Olise recording 12 goals and 17 assists in 56 Premier League appearances over the two campaigns. Despite enduring an injury-ravaged 2023-24, his creativity from both the wing and half-spaces was undeniable.
Olise is a solid finisher, converting 57 per cent of his big chances last season and scoring almost twice as many non-penalty goals as expected (nine from an xG of 4.7). He will also provide a progressive carrying option for Bayern, having averaged 6.4 successful take-ons (47 per cent success rate) per 90 minutes last season.
The example below from the 5-0 win against Aston Villa in May shows how Olise’s positioning and movement opened attacking avenues for Palace. Dropping infield, he collects a pass from Adam Wharton and turns away from two defenders before sliding Jean-Philippe Mateta in to score.
In Kompany’s preferred system — and in the Bundesliga — Olise should get more time on the ball than he did with Palace, allowing him to cut inside and link up well with right-backs who overlap, such as Noussair Mazraoui and Sacha Boey, as opposed to Joshua Kimmich, who has also played that position.
However, Olise will also have to make changes to his game, particularly with respect to his crossing and defensive work.
Last season, he averaged 2.5 crosses from open play per 90, the second-most in Palace’s squad, but only 23 per cent of these were accurate. This and his innate ability to often move inwards raise questions about how he will work with Bayern’s main striker Harry Kane.
Defensively, his 4.8 recoveries per 90 ranked Olise 15th out of Palace’s 23 outfield players, while his tackle success rate of 29 per cent was the fourth worst at the club. Olise’s 0.5 possessions won in the attacking third per 90 was also the lowest among all of Palace’s attacking players.
Kompany typically requires his forwards to lead the press and force high turnovers, so these are areas where Olise will need to take a big leap next season.
Overall, this seems like a deal that will require some major learnings from Olise’s end but if he gets past the growing pains of the adaptation phase, the 22-year-old could be a value-for-money, long-term signing.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
Season rating: 81/100
Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team.
Despite injuries ruling him out for exactly half of the Premier League season, Olise made a huge impression in what proved his third and final year at Palace.
In 19 league appearances (14 starts), Olise had an outstanding return of 10 goals and six assists. After suffering a hamstring injury that sidelined him for almost two months, his return to the side in April coincided with Palace going on an impressive unbeaten run to end the season, winning six of their final seven matches to kill off relegation worries.
Had injuries not blighted him — he didn’t make his first appearance until the November after suffering serious hamstring damage on international duty with France Under-21s last summer — it is not unreasonable to suggest Olise would have been a contender for the Premier League’s player of the season award, given his outstanding contribution to an otherwise middling Palace side.
Elias Burke
Gaming rating: 79/100
Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability.
According to Football Manager, Olise has the talent to make an immediate impression at Bayern, and he could end up as one of the club’s best players if he fulfils his potential.
Olise, 22, has a current ability rating of 150 on FM24, reflecting a talented but not yet wholly rounded player at the elite level. His rating compares favourably to other highly rated prospects of a similar age, including Chelsea and England forward Cole Palmer (140), but he is still quite a way off the more experienced Leroy Sane (169), who featured heavily from the right-wing under Thomas Tuchel in Munich last season.
While Olise is already an outstanding player, Sports Interactive’s extensive scouting network believes in his potential to improve considerably. His potential ability on FM24 is 166, slightly lower than Sane but still in the world-class bracket of wide attackers. For context, Jamal Musiala has a current ability rating of 158, suggesting Football Manager believes he has the talent to surpass the Germany international’s current level. Now it’s up to Kompany and the Bayern coaching staff to get him there.
Elias Burke
Financial value rating: 65/100
A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club
Market value — 17/25
It was a fee in the region of £50million ($64.1m) that has taken Olise to Bayern and, given his potential and age, it represents sound business in this summer’s market. Plenty in the Premier League were keen at that level and his development in the last two years hints at more to come.
Squad cost — 14/25
Bayern are spending to get back to the summit of German football next season and also targeting youth to freshen up their options under Kompany. The fee committed to Olise is an indicator of the direction of travel and players will leave to top up resources.
Contract sensibility — 18/25
A five-year contract works for all parties. Bayern have long-term security for a player on an upward trajectory, while Olise has easily the biggest deal of his young career. He is not expected to be among the biggest earners in a squad, limiting the financial burden.
Resale value — 16/25
Last season’s injury problems would be a minor concern but Olise’s progression in the Premier League points more towards a youngster bound for an elite level. A contract through to 2029 will see him reach 27, supposedly the peak of a career. Much of that £50million — if not all — will likely hold.
Philip Buckingham
Risk or reward? 80/100
Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look.
Olise was a target for many of Europe’s elite clubs, and Bayern should feel very fortunate that he has chosen them ahead of the competition.
For the Bavarians, the pursuit of Olise was a no-brainer. It is rare that an outstanding young prospect, who has already proven his ability to score and create goals in the Premier League, would be available for a relatively market-sensible price due to a release clause. If Bayern had not entered the race, he’d have strengthened a European rival for years to come.
There are some considerations from a Bayern perspective, however. Olise has suffered two hamstring injuries over the past two seasons, which have kept him out of action for a total of 21 matches (195 days in total). While his immediate productivity after returning from injury suggests he has not lost any of his physical and technical qualities, persisting hamstring injuries have been known to cause long-term physical implications to other players.
While he is accomplished in Premier League terms, he has yet to win an international cap and play in European club football competitions. This, in comparison, is a much more minor concern, as there is no suggestion that his skill would not translate on the biggest stage.
Elias Burke
Overall rating: 362/500
(Photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)
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