Making predictions about Major League Soccer isn’t easy, even if you work in the league.
Answers in past year’s editions of our annual survey of executives have ranged from spot-on to way, way off but they are meant to be fun.
In the first of two parts of this year’s MLS executive survey, we spoke to 30 soccer decision-makers from clubs around the league. Most are the chief soccer officer (CSO) of their respective club — their official titles vary, but CSOs are the individuals in charge of the sporting side of their organization. Several of the respondents are slightly lower down their team’s organizational chart, but all are highly involved in soccer operations and more than fluent on league matters.
This is Part 1, and deals mostly with picks and preferences for the 2024 season: MLS Cup predictions, the best players at each position, the top coach and best and worst ownership groups, etc. Is Inter Miami’s roster build good for the league? Who is the player most likely to make a big move abroad — and for how much? Who is the most talented player in MLS who isn’t called Lionel Messi?
Part 2, out tomorrow, is more open-ended. Execs were asked about a number of different topics from Leagues Cup and the Apple deal, to U.S. Open Cup participation and Messi’s Inter Miami.
In exchange for their candor, execs were granted full anonymity. None were allowed to vote for anyone associated with the club that they work for.
Clubs
Historically, it’s tough to figure out which teams are going to get hot at the right time to weave through the MLS playoffs. No one picked Columbus, the eventual MLS Cup champions, when we asked this last year.
Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami was the popular pick in 2024. The club won a knockout competition last year in the Leagues Cup and if manager Tata Martino can navigate squad rotation to get to the playoffs, they’ll be a tough out.
With Luis Suarez and Messi on the field, “late in (knockout) games they can score at any time,” one exec said.
“Let’s put pressure on Miami,” another added.
Columbus is vying to be the first team to repeat as MLS Cup champs since the LA Galaxy in 2011-12.
“Columbus and Miami are the two outstanding clubs in MLS for us,” another executive said.
It’s probably not a shock that no one picked eventual Shield winners FC Cincinnati last year, considering their trophyless history.
This year, some executives steered away from teams playing in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, given that participation in that competition tends to drain teams of energy early in the season. But most just couldn’t pull themselves away from Columbus.
“I’m not worried about Columbus’s CCC fixture congestion,” one exec said. “For me, they’re a rarity in MLS because of the way they play. It’s not as exhaustive as other systems, it looks easy.”
The top vote-getter that wasn’t a Champions Cup side? The LA Galaxy.
“I think the Galaxy are gonna get in old-school MLS shootouts and win 4-3 every week,” one exec said.
It didn’t hurt this year’s survey that some GMs saw a couple of weeks of action before voting. Joseph Paintsil may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that sneak peek. The Ghanaian winger has looked like a real difference-maker for the Galaxy and could be one of the top attackers in MLS by the end of the season.
“He is going to score a lot of goals, but they did overpay for him,” one executive said of Paintsil’s $9 million transfer from Genk in Belgium.
Another pushed back: “If you want to get guys in their prime and pull them away from Europe and potentially Champions League, you have to pay more.”
“I’m a little bit surprised the Galaxy got it done, only because Paintsil is so good,” another added.
Emil Forsberg also pulled some votes in this category.
“He is that guy they (Red Bull) haven’t had,” one executive said. “He can transform what they do and maybe actually make them a soccer team.”
“It was probably an easy negotiation between Red Bull (New York) and Red Bull (Leipzig) for the Forsberg deal…” another quipped.
The Rapids get the dubious honor of following the 2022 Chicago Fire and 2023 Toronto FC in this category, but not without some interesting debate.
Numerous executives said that Colorado was the most active this offseason but not necessarily the best. Others felt Colorado’s moves were great because of the message it seemed to be sending.
“They seem to finally have an identity,” one executive said of Colorado. “Whether or not it hits, I don’t know, but when was the last time where you said ‘I see what they’re trying to do?’”
GO DEEPER
MLS moves I like: Petar Musa to Dallas, Nashville SC takes chance on promising prospect
The Galaxy, meanwhile, might have made their biggest impact off the field.
“They finally hired a GM,” one executive said, referring to the team’s hiring of Will Kuntz as general manager. “For a decade it’s been crying out for that solution. They finally did it. They should get a lot better, real quick.”
Many teams see Miami pushing the boundaries of the roster rules to the absolute maximum as a way to move the league in a more aggressive direction by showing the potential if owners are allowed to spend. Miami has been able to do this in part because Messi is there, which attracted Suarez and Jordi Alba on non-DP deals, but most teams would need more freedom to spend to replicate this build.
“It’s great for the league,” one executive said. “Great. It pushes the league forward, it increases the relevance of the league. It’s must-watch TV. It’s great.”
Others concurred.
“Individuality is good, 30 team models is good,” the executive said. “They are entertaining as hell. I don’t know if it’ll work or not, but it’s exactly what MLS needs.”
Added another: “I love it. Teams should get to do what they want.”
Some executives felt Miami was given more leeway than other teams.
“I think it’s bad, I really do,” one executive said. “I think it’s setting the league back. We fought a lot against the ‘retirement league’ moniker but now that’s what people see, even in Miami with all of their young talent. I don’t like it. I don’t like it even more because the rules are different.”
Added another: “Depends on if we believe or don’t believe it’s cap compliant. I don’t know which side of the fence I fall on.”
Whether you like Inter Miami’s strategy or not, most executives think it will end in another trophy for Messi and Miami.
“They have to, right?” one said.
“I think it’s great,” another executive said. “They are really moving the needle, they’re pushing the envelope and I greatly respect that. They’re investing like MLS is in its tomorrow and I really appreciate that. They’re not waiting for someone else to do it and they’re being bold in their commitment to move themselves forward and, by association, the league.”
Others were more cynical.
“The team that spends the most money should have the highest expectations,” one executive said. “If they don’t win, they’re a failure.”
Players
This felt like a two-horse race.
“Denis Bouanga is a f*cking killer,” one executive said.
Another thought the answer was equally as clear-cut, but in a different direction: “It’s (Thiago) Almada, by a mile.”
Reigning MLS Cup MVP Cucho Hernandez was in the mix as well.
“Cucho Hernandez,” one executive said. “As they say in Zoolander: ‘He’s hot right now.’”
The variance of answers shows the top-end depth in MLS. It’s worth noting we took the clear and obvious winner out of the discussion and most voters seemed to ignore the older Inter Miami players as a collective.
“Three, four, five years ago the answer was so easy, ‘Oh it’s this guy,’” one executive said. “The league has improved a lot.”
After the season he had in 2023, it was tough for many executives to go against Roman Burki. Many pointed to Andre Blake’s consistency as a key, but Burki was mentioned in nearly every interview.
“St. Louis is competitive because their goalkeeping is elite and the numbers prove that,” one executive said. “What does (Hugo) Lloris do for LAFC? I have no idea. But I didn’t see a move that will improve a team as much as St. Louis gained from their goalkeeping.”
Added another executive: “Burki is the best goalkeeper, let’s face it. There is no discussion.”
After two years of being voted the top defender, Walker Zimmerman dropped into third. A few GMs noted that Jakob Glesnes has not had a great start to the season, but still felt his prior work did enough to earn their votes.
But it’s another American center back who takes the top honor, with FC Cincy’s Miles Robinson outpacing his USMNT teammate Zimmerman.
Lucho Acosta made a late run, and some executives may call foul and say Acosta is better placed in the “attacker” category. At 33 years old, Darlington Nagbe still has many fans across the league.
“Sometimes it’s best not to overcomplicate things,” one executive said.
“He’s getting older, but you can still build a team around him,” another said.
The comments about Denis Bouanga, who had 20 goals and seven assists last season, were kept simple, but clear: “He’s just ridiculous,” one executive said.
Hernandez finished second in this race, but one executive heaped praise on the Columbus striker.
“He’s the most impactful talent a team has picked up other than Messi in several years,” the executive said. “The way he’s come in and shifted things. People talk about Wilfried (Nancy, manager), and coaches play a role … but what Cucho has done for that organization, he walked in the door and everyone was like, ‘Oh, we can win.’”
For a second consecutive year, Cristian Roldan finishes top of this category. Still getting loved for not getting enough love or appreciation.
“Everyone likes Roldan and realizes how important he is, but I don’t think people really realize just how good he is,” one executive said.
Said another executive about Gauld: “He gets some attention, but he’s under appreciated — probably because the team hasn’t gone far. He does so much for the team on and off the ball.”
The answer here was pretty emphatic. Almada, 22, became the first active MLS player to win the World Cup in 2022, as he was part of Argentina’s squad in Qatar. He was an MVP finalist in 2023 and captained Argentina’s U-23 side this winter.
The pedigree is there for Almada, but some execs feel the league still has to sell more players to convince teams to buy at the very highest-end prices. And could his valuation top $27 million?
The gap was wide on this one. One executive dropped a “without a doubt.”
“He (Almada) is here at a time when our league’s value is higher and if for no other reason there is benchmarking,” the executive said. “Almiron will be the benchmark that his sale is measured against. That’s for the greater good of MLS than anything else.”
Another executive said, simply: “Not a chance.”
Added another: “Twenty-seven million is a steep number. Few teams can actually pay that. Almiron just had the numbers to back it up. Almada is not quite at that level, but he’s younger and higher profile from a national team perspective. In the end, no, unless he has an enormous summer. I think they’ll get around $20-25 million.”
“I think they’ll get to the point where he forces his way out for something like $20 million plus add-ons and a sell-on,” another executive said. “I’m saying for the initial fee, it won’t be $27 million, but maybe they’ll get add-ons because I don’t see anyone paying $30 million for anyone in MLS.”
We tried to keep homegrowns out of the conversation, but as you can see a few wiggled their way in there. It’s understandable. The value of homegrowns is what drives teams like FC Dallas and Philadelphia to success. It was a draft pick that won the category, though.
Orlando City’s second-year forward Duncan McGuire had a guaranteed compensation of $77,360 last year, per the MLSPA. His base salary of $67,360 was tied for the lowest in the league last year and he exploded for 15 goals and three assists across all competitions in his rookie season. He was on the brink of a transfer to Blackburn this winter, which only fell apart because of an administrative error by the English club.
The one executive who voted for Messi said Miami’s Messi deal would be more than worth it for any team in MLS.
Coaches
Last year’s MLS Cup-winning coach ran away with the category this year. Deservedly so.
“Our data shows it by a considerable distance,” one executive said. “I’m annoyed our data wasn’t up and running five or six years ago.”
It is a bit surprising, though, that MLS Cup-winning coach Tata Martino did not get even one vote.
Added another executive: “Can’t say anyone other than Wilfried at this point. I mean you could say Tata, but he has so many toys to play with.”
What we loved most about this category was how differently the executives thought about this answer. Some felt successful coaches were overlooked because of their longevity — “Oscar (Pareja) never gets the full credit he deserves.” one said. Others felt up-and-comers were still earning respect.
It’s why a couple Cup-winning coaches are on this list, like LAFC’s Steve Cherundolo.
“He didn’t get credit for the way he coached his team last year and the adjustments he made,” one executive said. “The players got all of it. I feel like he is underrated because he’s new and people haven’t done enough homework on the quality he’ll bring over time.”
Pat Noonan won MLS coach of the year last year, yet still finished atop this list.
“Pat Noonan is pure,” one executive said. “He’s so insightful, he’s so good. One of the best.”
A number of executives pointed to Laurent Courtois’ success with Columbus Crew II in MLS Next Pro and the strong tree of leadership building out under Tim Bezbatchenko.
Troy Lesesne was seen as being a good fit for the lower budget D.C. United, and one executive said he may have the biggest challenge because people still think of DCU as a big club, even if they haven’t fit that billing for some time.
“(Phil) Neville,” one executive said. “I think he’s a good coach and it’s a good fit with Ned (Grabavoy) and the club. I also don’t think he’s full of s—, unlike some of the other new hires.”
Executives on executives
It’s no surprise that Bezbatchenko, John Thorrington and Ernst Tanner jumped out here.
Both Columbus and LAFC are considered model clubs around the league and are the last two MLS Cup winners. Executives pointed to the holistic success around Columbus, however, with a winning MLS Next Pro team that has provided players to the first team.
“They got the whole thing functioning, man,” one executive said.
Tanner’s record speaks for itself, multiple executives said, especially considering the budget, near the bottom of the league, he is working with in Philly.
“The sustained success and his model over time is mind-numbing for their spend,” one executive said. Added another: “He has his game model, has his style and sticks to it. His success relative to budget is something that has always impressed me.”
Chris Henderson once again got a vote this year for finding success in a difficult cap situation. He also won votes two years ago while Miami was under sanctions.
“What he’s done there is very challenging,” one executive said. “It looks easy because they’re spending, but it’s so difficult to hit the cap and do what he does.”
After leading the seismic turnaround of FC Cincinnati, Chris Albright is a name in the mix for the title of best CSO in MLS. Albright inherited a Cincy squad that finished bottom of MLS three consecutive years and by his second season, they won the Shield.
“Every move Cincy has made under Albright it’s like, goddamnit, that’s a good one,” one executive said. “They all make sense.”
Two names that have been constants in the job market — yet somehow weren’t hired — finished atop this list.
Speaking to Bezbatchenko’s success, two of his deputies got votes and others got mentions.
“(Corey Wray) has been pigeonholed a bit, but it would be great if he gets an opportunity,” one executive said. “Corey and Issa (Tall) have two rings and are really f—ing sharp guys.”
Another was even more blunt.
“It should be Issa,” the executive said. “Somehow he’s been passed on a couple times. Issa is just a stud. His track record is pretty straightforward.”
Rising executive Chris Tierney of the New England Revolution got some love, as well.
“Tierney should have gotten the New England job this winter, but maybe the extra couple years will be better,” one executive said.
Most executives felt it would be easy to play in the U.S. Open Cup as MLS had long operated: allow each team to make choices about what the rosters look like when they are on the field.
“I like the history behind it,” one executive said. “It’s hard to win trophies. There are 29 teams, the more we have to play for the better. Teams can manage rosters as they see fit.”
GO DEEPER
Explained: The future of U.S. Open Cup and why the European Super League ruling matters
Opportunity for another trophy was the main driving force behind why most executives wanted to be in it.
“We’re very frustrated we’re not playing,” one executive said. “Of the eight teams playing, some don’t want to be. For us? 100 percent. It’s part of the soccer ecosystem. That’s what we’re here for. To win trophies.”
Another added: “Dude, I do this to win trophies. That’s a trophy. Let’s go win a f—ing trophy.”
One of the ‘no’ votes said reformatting the tournament is better for younger kids and pointed to extremely low ticket sales for home Open Cup games as evidence that interest in the tournament just isn’t there compared to other games.
“The new format gets closer to making sense,” one executive said. “It’s still a financial burden. Everyone loses money. It’s absurd to be in a competition guaranteed to piss away money.”
Executives pushed back on the notion that USOC was the clearest path to the CONCACAF Champions Cup, with the expanded format now making it easier to get in if you finish near the top of your conference standings.
For some, it was a matter of the tournament needing improvement.
“The competition is not up to the standards that our club should be playing in,” one executive said. “It doesn’t make sense financially, for schedule congestion. If we’re going to be playing Leagues Cup and Champions Cup, unless they make changes to roster rules, I don’t see how putting out weakened MLS sides on subpar fields against subpar competition helps further the sport in our country. … U.S. Soccer hasn’t kept up with the standards to make it appealing.”
Jeff Rueter contributed graphics to this piece
(Top photos: Getty; Brad Smith/ISI Photos/USSF, Melinda Meijer/ISI Photos, Bill Barrett/ISI Photos; Graphic by John Bradford)
Read the full article here