Prophets, the bible tells us, are not appreciated in their hometowns. The same might well be true of Bayern Munich academy players. Since Louis van Gaal promoted Thomas Muller, Diego Contento and Holger Badstuber to the first team between 2009 and 2011, no locally-born campus alumnus has become a regular starter in Bavaria.
Defender Josip Stanisic came close last season but was loaned out to Bayer Leverkusen and might never come back. Kenan Yildiz, from nearby Regensburg, is now lighting up Serie A following this 2022 move to Juventus from Bayern’s under-19s.
But if there are any positives to be taken from a disappointing season, defensive midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic has broken the homegrown mould. The 19-year-old is one of the first names on the Bayern team sheet this season, and easily one of the most important ones, too.
‘Pavlo’, as they call him in the dressing room, has brought balance to Thomas Tuchel’s team with classic, mostly inconspicuous mopping up in front of the back four. He’s neither flash nor particularly quick but plays the “holding No 6” role that Tuchel had banged about all summer and beyond so well that Joshua Kimmich has moved out to the right of defence to make room for him. Leon Goretzka and Konrad Laimer, two seasoned internationals, are no longer guaranteed starting slots in the centre either.
Born to Serbian parents, Pavlovic was scouted at an indoor tournament with Munich suburb club SC Furstenfeldbruck at the age of seven. His talent was obvious and he saw plenty of action at Allianz Arena, albeit as a ballboy on the sidelines.
Physically, he seemed to hit a dead end in his mid-teens. “I had delayed puberty, I was always the smallest and weakest player (in the under-15s, -16s and -17s),” he told Bayern’s club website. Intelligence and quick passing made up for his lack of strength, to an extent.
Coaches hardly played him, however, and he repeatedly came close to getting released. “He had almost no muscle and therefore little impact on games,” says a Bayern staff member who worked with him at the time, speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect relationships. “Fortunately, his quality on the ball shone through.”
Lesser clubs from Munich would have been happy to give him a chance but he insisted on staying at Sabener Strasse. “Bayern is everything to me,” he said later.
Strangely enough, the advent of Covid-19 helped him. During the pandemic-induced break in youth football, Pavlovic suddenly grew 20 centimetres (more than half a foot) and came back a much more robust player. He quickly established himself with the under-19s in the 2021-22 campaign and trained with the pros in Julian Nagelsmann’s second season. Tuchel took him on the club’s Asia tour in the summer.
Pavlovic was undersized but went through a growth spurt (Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images)
Then, luck struck. When Bayern’s €65million (£55.5m; $69m) move for Fulham’s Joao Palhinha fell through on the last day of the transfer window and Kimmich and Goretzka missed a few games with injuries or suspensions in the autumn, Pavlovic was entrusted with shielding the back four and excelled with minimum fuss.
“Aleks is extremely ambitious, ready to learn and, most importantly, willing to learn,” says the Bayern source. “He lives for football and loves this game, he shows that in every training session and every game. He’s also a really well-raised boy, polite and humble, from a great home.”
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Bayern’s problems with controlling defensive transitions in midfield — which Tuchel correctly predicted but initially did little to resolve — appear a lot less drastic with him on the pitch. One of his biggest strengths is looking after the ball well. His pass completion rate of 92 per cent is among the top five per cent of midfielders in the Bundesliga this season. Crucially, it is the highest of Bayern’s midfielders — Kimmich’s is 85 per cent by comparison, which is still very good.
When comparing Pavlovic and Kimmich’s profiles on Smarterscout (below), which rates players on how well or how frequently they perform specific actions, Pavlovic scores higher on ball retention ability, but it’s also worth noting Kimmich’s more adventurous passing (progressive passing), which naturally will come with more risk, but also more reward. Kimmich also creates more chances from carrying the ball (xG from ball progression).
Pavlovic’s ball-carrying (carry and dribble volume) should not be underestimated. For a relatively tall player, he’s rather good at pushing the ball past opponents and breaking lines to commit players towards him. He also has good defensive positioning and ability to read the game, as evidenced by his ball recoveries and interceptions.
What about that zero for ‘defending intensity’, you ask? First, his relatively low number of minutes can sometimes make some players’ metrics a little more extreme. His other defensive statistics suggest his game is more based on being in the right position to cut out passes and pick up loose balls rather than crashing into tackles and getting tight to his man. The defensive intensity metric assesses how often the player is the most relevant player out of possession. A low number here often suggests a player is more likely to hold their position. It’s more of an indicator of style rather than success.
That positional fidelity has had the biggest positive effect on Tuchel’s team. Of the nine games the club have lost this season in all competitions, Pavlovic only started one, the 3-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen in February, when Bayern’s coach tried out an experimental formation.
Pavlovic scoring against Augsburg (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)
Bayern’s other big defeats coincided with the teenager’s absence, so his involvement against Arsenal on Wednesday is such a vital boost for the home team. Pavlovic had missed the first leg with an infection that had also stopped him from debuting for Germany in March. He might yet play a key role for the German national team this summer, too.
For a player who’s “positively mad about football” and “watches as many youth-team games as possible in his spare time,” as the Bayern source reveals, Pavlovic wears all this responsibility extremely lightly. “He does it with a smile and humility, everything else follows from that,” Tuchel said, “his quality shines through.”
Naturally, the supporters love him, too. “He’s made it into the team as a true Munich boy,” CEO Jan-Christian Dreesen said. “Our fans dream of such stories becoming reality, and so do we at the club.”
Promoting from within makes good business and sporting sense as well. New board member of sport Max Eberl wants the next manager to offer more chances to Bavarian natives such as Pavlovic or Frans Kratzig — on loan at Austria Vienna — to save money for superstars in other positions but also to strengthen the way players identify with the club and vice versa.
Bayern’s 11-year dominance owed a lot to players such as Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Muller, to whom the club meant much more than a paycheque. If Pavlovic’s development continues apace, he can become one of the bedrocks of the next generation of local heroes pushing things forward.
(Top photo: Christian Kaspar-Bartke/Getty Images)
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