Premier League relegation: Forest, Luton, Burnley – who could go down and when?

Sheffield United’s relegation to the Championship was confirmed after their 5-1 defeat by Newcastle United last weekend and two of Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley will join them.

Those three clubs are separated by just two points with three games left to play.

However, this has been the season of the asterisk due to clubs being hit with points deductions for breaches of profit and sustainability rules (PSR), meaning the table could still be affected by off-the-pitch decisions as much as on-the-pitch results.

Which clubs are safe?

While Sheffield United are the only club whose relegation from the top tier has been confirmed, everyone from Brentford in 16th upwards are safe for another season.

Thomas Frank’s side are on 35 points, 10 clear of Luton Town in 18th with three games left and nine points available.

Everton beat Brentford 1-0 at the weekend to move a point clear of the west London club, which should mean they too are safe.

However, Everton’s situation is complicated by the fact they have appealed against a two-point deduction handed out for a second breach of the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules. Forest are also awaiting the outcome of their appeal against a four-point deduction for breaching PSR.

More on that below…

Which clubs are at risk?

Forest, Luton and Burnley are the three clubs fighting it out to avoid joining Sheffield United in the Championship. Should Luton and Burnley go down, it would be just the second time in Premier League history that all three promoted sides were immediately relegated (after Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace in 1997-98).

With Forest one point clear of Luton and two ahead of Burnley, safety is in their hands. Whereas Luton and Burnley will require Forest to slip up.

To add intrigue, Burnley host Forest on the final day of the season.

What are the key games?

The next matches for Luton and Forest are against clubs whose futures have just been confirmed.

Luton host Everton on Friday. Until Sean Dyche’s side’s recent upturn in results, this was billed as a do-or-die encounter for both sides but, now Everton are safe, it means Luton would temporarily move out of the relegation zone with victory at Kenilworth Road.

Forest play Burnley on the last day of the season (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

That’s because Forest play relegated Sheffield United away on Saturday. A victory would mean that, whatever Luton and Burnley (who are home to Newcastle United) do this weekend, Forest would be at least a point clear with two to play. No team can be relegated this weekend.

On May 11, their penultimate games, all three play London clubs: Forest — Chelsea (H), Luton — West Ham (A), Burnley — Tottenham (A). Then, on May 19, the final day, Luton host Fulham while Burnley and Forest face off at Turf Moor.

What are the permutations?

Nottingham Forest

Forest will be relegated on May 11 if they pick up fewer than two points in their next two games and Luton win both theirs. They will also be relegated if they lose both of their matches and Burnley win both of theirs.

Forest will be safe with a game to spare if they win their next two games and Luton fail to pick up more than three points from theirs or Burnley fail to pick up more than four points from theirs. Or, if Forest get a win and a draw from their next two games, they will be safe if Luton fail to pick up more than one point from their next two matches or Burnley fail to pick up more than two points. Forest could even win and lose in their next two and be safe on May 11 if Luton lose both their matches or Burnley fail to pick up more than a point from theirs. If Forest draw both of their games they will be safe on May 11 if Burnley lose their next two matches.

Luton Town

Luton will be relegated on May 11 if they pick up fewer than two points in their next two games and Forest pick up four points or more or Burnley win both their next two games. If Luton lose both of their matches, they will go down if Forest win one of their two or Burnley win both of theirs. Even if Luton win one and lose one, they will go down on May 11 if Forest pick up six points in their next two matches.

Luton will be safe with a game to spare if they win their next two matches and Forest take fewer than two points from their next two, or Burnley take fewer than four points from theirs. They will also be safe on May 11 if they get a win and a draw from their next two and Burnley fail to pick up more than a point in their next two games. If Luton win one and lose then they will be safe with a game to spare if Burnley lose both their matches.

Burnley

Burnley will be relegated on May 11 if they lose their next two games and Forest take two points from their next two games or Luton take three points from their next two games. Burnley would also be relegated on May 11 even if they pick up four points in their next two, providing Forest win both their games.

Burnley will be safe with a game to spare if they win both of their next two and Forest lose their next two or Luton fail to pick up more than a point from their next two. 

What about points deductions and appeals?

Oh yes, of course.

Forest were docked four points for a PSR breach. The result of their appeal was heard on April 24 and an outcome is expected imminently.

Everton are also waiting on the outcome of their appeal against the second PSR breach and subsequent two-point deduction but, as things stand in the league table, Sean Dyche’s side will be in the Premier League next season.

(Top photos: Paul Harding; Justin Tallis/AFP; Matt McNulty; all via Getty Images)