Newcastle United are 10th in the 20-team Premier League. For many other clubs in many other seasons, that would represent one giant, “meh” — the very definition of mid-table mediocrity.
Not for head coach Eddie Howe and his team, however. Their 2023-24 has been a compilation of soaring highs and crushing lows, with misfortune a constant companion, often at Newcastle’s invitation.
After two difficult transfer windows, after finding themselves constricted by the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR), after battling against a sapping list of injuries, Sandro Tonali’s long suspension, and with Dan Ashworth, their sporting director, heading to Manchester United, it feels like they are approaching a crossroads, on and off the pitch.
The loss at Chelsea on Monday was deflating and familiar. Last season’s team of front-footed swarmers are routinely making life difficult for themselves and easy for their opponents.
Before Saturday’s daunting trip to Manchester City in the FA Cup quarter-finals — Newcastle’s final tilt at winning silverware this season (for the men’s team, anyway) — The Athletic’s Chris Waugh and George Caulkin assess what has gone wrong since the summer, where things stand and what they expect from the final two months of the campaign…
George Caulkin: Chris, you had the joy of being at Stamford Bridge and wrote afterwards about Newcastle being the “Accidental Entertainers”. A few days on, how do you reflect on the 3-2 defeat?
Chris Waugh: My verdict hasn’t changed. If anything, it’s been reinforced. The brutal reality is that Newcastle deserve to be 10th in the Premier League. They are an inconsistent mid-table team who vacillate from uplifting victories to dispiriting defeats. The primary reason those Newcastle fans left west London feeling so disheartened on Monday is that Chelsea are a bang-average side, with brittle confidence, playing in front of a home crowd who were ready to turn.
It was an opportunity for Newcastle to build on the Wolves win — when they looked more defensively solid and cohesive, albeit playing a more rudimentary style — and yet they reverted to the disorderly, error-riddled team who have such glaring weaknesses. That “Accidental Entertainers” moniker refers to the 3.8 goals per game being averaged in Newcastle matches this season. That is for and against combined and, while Howe will be pleased his team are scoring more, he should be alarmed that they have conceded the joint-most away goals in the division, alongside bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United (32).
The massive mitigation of all of the challenges Newcastle have faced this season remains relevant now, but Monday was frustratingly familiar. Or is that merely my weariness talking?
Caulkin: Not at all. To use a video-game reference, this season just feels like a death loop. Or, to use a film reference, it’s Groundhog Day. The depressing bit about Chelsea wasn’t the losing in itself, it was watching the same old errors and seeing the same frailties on repeat. Last season, Newcastle were a brilliant team in the most basic sense. They were a collective, greater than their individual parts, working together, protecting each other, all for one and other cliches. That’s largely gone.
So has their sense of rigour. They’ve let in three goals or more in eight of their last 14 league fixtures. Every game becomes a mini Everest. Watching them is exhausting. And then, on the subject of death loops, here come more injuries…
Waugh: You have to feel for Anthony Gordon, who bigged-up his own fitness record — he has made 39 appearances in all competitions this season (missing one of Newcastle’s 40 games through suspension) — only to succumb to a knee problem against Chelsea.
We don’t know the extent of that injury, with some claims that Gordon has avoided a serious setback, but he is a major doubt for the FA Cup tie on Saturday. That is undoubtedly a blow, given Harvey Barnes and Kieran Trippier are also set to miss out. Gordon has been Newcastle’s talisman in attack, with 10 goals and five assists, and he can play anywhere across the front line.
Eddie Howe is well known for downplaying injuries, so this is how I’m picturing Anthony Gordon after he admitted the injury was bad:#NUFC pic.twitter.com/zp23JmdPVG
— Memecastle United (@Memecastle_Utd) March 12, 2024
Caulkin: It’s a massive blow and very unfortunate that it should have happened in front of England manager Gareth Southgate. If anybody escapes criticism this season, if anybody deserves an England call-up, it’s Gordon. He’s been very good and very reliable, two rarities this season.
So what does Howe do against Pep Guardiola’s exceptional City team? Is the most obvious answer to play Miguel Almiron and Jacob Murphy?
Waugh: It is, and that’s probably what will happen, although I have a more left-field suggestion… although I am reluctant to move Tino Livramento from his preferred right-back position, now he is finally deputising there, there would be benefits to moving him into the advanced role he sometimes played when he was younger. Then I’d bring in Emil Krafth to provide solidity down the right, with Almiron shifting to the left.
Caulkin: Shall we have a go at picking our probable teams then?
I’m less interested in who plays than how they play. You mentioned Wolves earlier and, to my untrained eye, that win at the start of this month looked like a decent template for Newcastle to maximise their strengths and minimise their weaknesses, something they will have to do this weekend. Giving City the ball is a risk, obviously, but Newcastle can’t leave themselves exposed like they did against Chelsea.
Waugh: This isn’t a ‘probable team’, and I doubt we’ll see it, but things need freshening up after Chelsea.
It’s an untested side but I would play Lewis Miley instead of Sean Longstaff, who needs a rest. Then Livramento and Almiron would offer protection to the full-backs while also providing pace on the break alongside Alexander Isak and Joe Willock. That’s my theory, anyway…
Caulkin: I can see your thinking but I’d be loath to shift Livramento when he did so well against Chelsea. I agree about Longstaff needing a rest but that applies to pretty much everyone. A bigger concern is the lack of options. In the league match against City at St James’ Park in January, Guardiola brought on Kevin De Bruyne, who effectively won them the game. Howe’s only sub was the lesser-spotted Lewis Hall…
Waugh: Howe is in an almost impossible position, selection-wise. It may be unfair to draw definitive conclusions from a match that even optimistic fans expect Newcastle to lose but the trend of recent months means that Howe needs his side to at least deliver a decent display.
A 2-0 defeat with some signs of defensive cohesion and targeted attacking play, for example, would be disappointing but acceptable. If Newcastle are on the wrong end of a shellacking and look as open as they have recently, that may lead some supporters to start asking major questions of Howe.
Caulkin: Howe’s job isn’t under immediate threat. He has a close relationship with Amanda Staveley, born from the challenging circumstances facing Newcastle when they arrived and that first January window, when they worked all hours to improve the squad. In a piece I wrote recently about the Newcastle women’s team, Staveley referred to Howe as “exceptional” and said, “We couldn’t ask for better.” Howe is the best thing to happen to Newcastle United for decades. He has provided a new generation with memories that will last a lifetime.
Waugh: Considering a change of head coach would be ridiculously premature, regardless of what happens this weekend. The British-based owners feel similarly. The caveat is that we simply do not know what Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the chairman, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) — Newcastle’s 80 per cent majority owners — are thinking. They remain the ultimate decision-makers. A PIF-mandated intervention at some stage cannot be entirely dismissed.
Caulkin: I guess not, although Newcastle have insisted from day one post-takeover that “alignment” guides their decision-making in the boardroom. The club is run from Tyneside, not Riyadh. Howe did enough in his first full season to show that, given the tools, he can mould and lead a team capable of challenging the elite. But in his second full season, those tools have not been there. He has been undermined by that chronic list of injuries and successive poor transfer windows.
None of that means he can’t make mistakes or should be immune to criticism. Whatever the circumstances, managers of big clubs — which is what Newcastle aspire to be — need to find a way to win or, at the very least, a way not to lose. It doesn’t feel like that has happened enough.
Waugh: The withering of Newcastle’s identity under Howe merely adds to the growing uncertainty around so many areas of the club.
Newcastle’s PSR problems were so chronic in January that, despite Howe being desperate for reinforcements to aid his injury-depleted squad, especially in midfield, they did not make a signing. The message was that they had to sell before they could buy, but they failed to find suitors for their unwanted players. Almiron was touted to Saudi Pro League clubs but no deal was agreed.
Howe has since needed to rely on Almiron, which is a far-from-ideal situation. None of the fallout from January has helped Howe.
And that is before we even get into last summer’s window…
Caulkin: Fast-forward two or three years and perhaps we’ll look at it differently. Perhaps Livramento and Hall will be England’s full-back pairing and Tonali will be tearing it up in midfield, but the observation we made once that summer window closed still holds true, if we ignore that Livramento is filling in for Trippier.
Yes, Tonali was in-and-out but Newcastle effectively hadn’t strengthened their first team. They effectively haven’t strengthened their squad, either.
The big one here is Tonali’s 10-month ban for betting offences, but Barnes has been plagued by injuries, Livramento is behind a guaranteed starter in Trippier and Hall just hasn’t imposed himself. They’ve desperately needed more options but they’ve had the opposite.
Howe and Trippier have both faced unfamiliar scrutiny in their time at Newcastle (Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)
Waugh: Which brings us to Ashworth, the sporting director who is now being paid handsomely to prune his roses. It was Ashworth who flew to Italy to lure Tonali from AC Milan and who oversaw the implementation of the strategy over the last two windows, despite the murmurings from inside the club that he was largely irrelevant when it came to recruitment.
Yes, Steve Nickson, the head of recruitment, and Andy Howe, the assistant head of recruitment, identify the players and Eddie Howe has the ultimate say on who is acquired, but Ashworth was involved in transfer discussions and he led many negotiations.
His desire to defect to a direct rival did represent a setback, given Ashworth was identified as the “club builder” required to turn Newcastle into an elite sporting institution. Even if Howe insists that his day-to-day coaching of the players has been immune to the loss of the sporting director and that recruitment processes are “unaffected”, Ashworth being placed on gardening leave has been unsettling behind the scenes.
Darren Eales, the chief executive, leads the business side at Newcastle but there is a power vacuum at the top of the footballing operation which just adds to the wider sense of flux surrounding the club.
Caulkin: In the short term, there are enough good people in the right positions for the club to function, but with the team playing as they are it adds to a sense of blurred identity. Newcastle played with the hunger and aggression of underdogs last season. They were the disruptors. The challenge for them this season was to somehow maintain that USP from a position of raised expectations — gah, I hate that word — or to adapt. They haven’t done either.
As the centre of Newcastle’s ‘wheel’ — his description — Ashworth was the big-picture man. In times of difficulty, he should be there to offer guidance and support to the manager. He should be the person who can step back and make decisions that benefit the club over the longer term, who shapes what Newcastle are and what they are trying to be. Those elements feel much less obvious now.
Waugh: Would a surprise win against City change that dynamic? Newcastle are capable of producing excellent one-off performances — and did scare Guardiola’s side in January before fading — and an FA Cup triumph at the Etihad would represent a victory for the ages.
It would breathe fresh life into a season that looks to be flatlining and push all of those doubts about what is happening at the club out of fans’ minds for now. I’m not sure you could handle another trip to Wembley, mind, George…
Caulkin: The weird thing about this season comes when you list out Newcastle’s big, positive moments: thrashing Aston Villa 5-1 on the opening day; backs to the wall in the awe-inspiring San Siro after 20 years away from the Champions League; 8-0 at Sheffield United; beating both Manchester clubs in the Carabao Cup; 4-1 and a deafening high point at St James’ against Paris Saint-German; VAhahahahahaR against Arsenal; 3-0 at Sunderland; comebacks galore in the 4-4 at home to Luton. Shouldn’t this feel like one of the best seasons ever?
In that context, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they go to the Etihad and win. In the context of what we saw at Chelsea, or Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, Bournemouth and Brighton, it wouldn’t be a surprise to go there and be hammered. I said on Pod On The Tyne not too long ago that if this season was a Righteous Brothers song (kids, ask your grandparents), it would be Unchained Melody. Aside from the chaos of it all, it’s themeless.
Newcastle must somehow find some momentum between now and May.
Waugh: Last year’s Carabao Cup final was a huge opportunity missed to end the 55-year-and-counting trophy drought.
I struggle to see when Newcastle can prioritise silverware in the coming seasons. The revenue the Champions League offers is vital, given PSR, and getting back there surely must be the focus in 2024-25.
Newcastle’s Carabao Cup final defeat looks ever more painful (James Baylis – AMA/Getty Images)
Caulkin: I didn’t agree with you then, but my mindset has changed a bit. A year ago, even post-Wembley, you could look into the future and feel with some certainty that the team and club would be stronger in 12 months. This season has shown (me) that these things aren’t automatic. Injuries will be the invisible asterisk next to whatever points total they finish with on May 19 — it’s been a freak season — but PSR and Ashworth demonstrate that it’s going to be harder work than we might have anticipated.
Last season was magical. Every game was a surprise and a delight. I wanted that feeling to last for ever and I didn’t want the season to end. This time, I remember going to Bournemouth (as usual; cheers Chris!) in November, a threadbare Newcastle losing 2-0, Trippier and a fan exchanging angry words afterwards and thinking to myself, “Roll on May.” It’s been knackering!
Waugh: Come on, then. Let’s do score predictions and then briefly outline how we see the remainder of the season panning out.
I’m going for a 3-1 defeat and, although I see City winning relatively comfortably, I do expect a much-improved Newcastle performance. The final 10 games of the league campaign appear relatively kind but I still expect Newcastle’s inconsistency to persist. An eighth-placed finish is my revised guess, which suggests a decent end, hopefully generating a little momentum for next season.
Caulkin: I would take eighth or above at this point. I might have even said the same in August, although I wouldn’t have taken this laborious, roundabout route. Europe has exposed the squad this season, but having been there once, they need to get there again, demonstrating to the players they already have and the players they want to have that this is their natural habitat.
As far as Saturday goes, I’m torn. My feelings are as split as this season’s results. The Caulkin who remains forever cynical and wizened from decades following a club who specialise in failure, whether glorious or inglorious, knows exactly what’s coming — AKA the utter futility of existence. Happy Clapper Caulkin, reborn two years ago with the unsettling stare of a true believer, does not accept the inevitability of defeat. Not yet, anyway.
In the spirit of compromise between my warring selves and with no confidence whatsoever, I predict a draw after 90 minutes, which would mean extra time. After that, who knows?
In a season full of them, is it too much to ask for another big moment?
(Top photo: Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)
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