The bottom of the Premier League table is… confusing.
Following Monday’s news that Everton’s 10-point penalty has been reduced to six points after their appeal, the pack has shuffled and sprung Sean Dyche’s side up to 15th place — for now.
Everton could face a second points deduction after being charged with another breach of the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) in January. Nottingham Forest are also adjudged to have broken these rules and could also receive a deduction this season.
The reality is that the three promoted sides are due to go straight back down. Sheffield United and Burnley look cut adrift — irrespective of points deductions elsewhere — while Luton Town are just about staying in the fight with a game in hand on their closest competitors.
If further deductions are made, that pack could shuffle once again.
Clear as mud? Considering things are still contingent on future decisions made off the pitch, you would not be blamed for feeling confused. Nevertheless, let’s try to make sense of the current landscape and see who might be in the relegation places in May.
Opta’s predicted league table projects the final standings by forecasting the outcome of each team’s remaining fixtures, based on the strength of the respective sides, before simulating the league season thousands of times to calculate an average of their potential finishes.
Based on Opta’s model, the three promoted sides are still the favourites to go straight back down, with Everton’s four extra points meaning Nottingham Forest, who have a 19 per cent chance of relegation, are in the most danger if Luton were to put a string of results together.
After they host Aston Villa on Saturday, Luton face a pivotal run of games against Crystal Palace (A), Bournemouth (A) and closest rivals Forest (H).
Meanwhile, Brentford’s outside chance of relegation (four per cent) should give them confidence, but a tough run that includes Arsenal (A), Manchester United (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (H) and Aston Villa (A) could see things get worse before they get better.
Let’s look at each of the bottom six clubs fighting the drop…
Sheffield United
Current position: 20th
Predicted position: 20th
It is difficult to find too many metrics that Sheffield United are not at the bottom of.
No team has conceded more than their 66 goals across Europe’s top five leagues, and their recent 5-0 loss to Brighton at home meant that no side had conceded more goals after 25 games in the top flight since 1964.
Chris Wilder’s side will be hoping that they don’t compound their relegation misery with an unwanted record of the most goals conceded in Premier League history. That stands at 100 goals from Swindon Town in a 42-game 1993-94, and you would not put it past Sheffield United pushing that record close.
Their next game is against an Arsenal side who have scored 18 goals in their last four Premier League matches.
If you did want to scramble for a positive, or something to look out for at least, then Wilder’s side might have a role to play in the fate of others in the relegation battle, as they face Brentford, Burnley, Nottingham Forest and Everton in the closing weeks of the season.
Burnley
Current position: 19th
Predicted position: 19th
Considering the optimism that existed at the start of the season with Vincent Kompany’s possession-dominant style of play, the wind has truly been taken out of Burnley’s sails — and Opta has them as a near-certainty to join Sheffield United in an instant return to the Championship.
It might sound obvious when referring to a team who has only won three Premier League games all season, but there is a compounding negative effect to Burnley’s attack. Not only do they take the second-fewest shots (10) per 90 minutes, but the average quality of their given shots (shown by their expected goals — xG — per shot) is the lowest in the division, too.
Low-quantity and low-quality shooting make relegation the only realistic outcome.
A glance at their upcoming fixtures might be dragging out the misery, but Burnley fans will be hoping that some embers might catch alight after the fire has gone out of their season.
A smattering of clashes against teams around them might bring some pride to Kompany’s side, but Burnley are surely too far adrift.
Luton Town
Current position: 18th
Predicted position: 18th
“It makes no real difference, we were in the bottom three before and we still are,” Luton manager Rob Edwards said of Everton’s points reduction.
“The situation is the same from our point of view. Deductions can’t be the thing that keeps us in the league; we’ve got to keep it in our own hands. But it’s good to have a bit of clarity.”
Luton’s season has been one of defiance. Captain Tom Lockyer encapsulated their battling attitude after recovering from a cardiac arrest suffered on the pitch at Bournemouth.
If they are to stay up, it will be their threat from wide that will be key to their efforts. No side in the Premier League averages more crosses than Luton’s 22.2 per 90 minutes, with only Fulham, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers channelling their attack down the middle third less frequently than their 24 per cent.
Aside from a sticky run of games coming up that sees them face Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Manchester City away, Luton do have the opportunity to make up some ground and close the gap on Nottingham Forest.
Luton have one game in hand and are still yet to welcome Forest, Brentford and Everton to Kenilworth Road, which could have a big say in their survival hopes.
Opta’s model predicts that it might be a step too far to escape the drop, with a 69 per cent likelihood of relegation, but don’t rule out further drama. Luton have made a good habit of defying the odds.
Nottingham Forest
Current position: 17th
Predicted position: 17th
Forest fans are in limbo at the moment.
On the one hand, there is positivity that an improving defensive foundation is allowing Nuno Espirito Santo’s side to provide more of an attacking threat. On the other hand, they are acutely aware that a points deduction could descend upon them at any moment.
On the field, Forest do have a particular vulnerability in conceding from set pieces, giving away another goal during a second phase of play in their 4-2 loss to Aston Villa last weekend.
That made it 16 goals conceded from dead-ball situations this season, the most of any Premier League side. When accounting for the opportunity of chances faced, their 6.6 goals conceded per 100 set pieces is among the worst in the division.
Forest do still have some tricky games coming up, but their games against fellow strugglers Everton, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United will be as crucial for them as it will be for their opponents.
“It doesn’t make sense to think about what might happen,” Nuno said. “I cannot tell you much. We all have to wait and the decision has to be made… then we will see.”
Points deduction or not, Forest’s 19 per cent chance of relegation is still higher than they’d like it to be. If they are to stave off the drop, it looks like it is going to go right to the wire.
Brentford
Current position: 16th
Predicted position: 14th
Considering the fantastic job that Thomas Frank has done at Brentford in recent years, it is unexpected to see them sleepwalking towards the relegation zone, with 10 losses from their last 12 Premier League games.
Monday was a harsh day for Frank. Everton’s points reduction saw them leapfrog above Brentford before the misery was compounded by a 4-2 loss at West Ham that saw them concede two goals within the first 10 minutes.
As strong advocates of a data-led approach, Brentford’s analysts will be well aware of the recent uptick in their side’s concession of chances. Across a 10-game rolling average, Brentford have predominantly created more chances than they have conceded per game for much of this season — but now, with a few months of the season left, that trend has reversed.
“You need to keep going, stick to what you believe in and your principles,” Frank said after the West Ham defeat. “It’s difficult to run as fast as possible if you’re looking behind every minute, for me it’s (about) looking forward to what we can affect.”
By looking forward, Frank will see a favourable run of fixtures from April that should see them keep the relegation zone at arm’s length.
Opta has given them a four per cent chance of going down — and predicts they will climb to 14th by the end of May — but Brentford need to shake off their slump.
Everton
Current position: 15th
Predicted position: 15th
What a difference a day makes.
Darkness was descending on Everton at the weekend, with Dyche’s side still without a win since mid-December after a last-minute Brighton equaliser saw them drop two points on the road on Saturday.
Suddenly, everything seemed brighter after Monday’s points deduction reduction, which gave Everton some breathing space from relegation. They sit in 15th, five points from safety.
Whatever happens off the field, nobody can dispute Everton’s on-field superpower from set pieces, which they showed again last weekend. Jarrad Branthwaite’s excellent finish came after a deep free kick from Jordan Pickford — straight from the “Dyche Zone” playbook.
When accounting for the opportunity of chances created, Everton’s nine goals per 100 set pieces is comfortably beyond any other side in the Premier League. Even when you know what to expect from Dyche’s side, they make it very difficult to stop them.
Even if they receive another points deduction, Everton will look towards a favourable run of games at the back end of the season before a tricky trip to Arsenal on the final day.
For now, Everton fans can celebrate their chance of relegation falling from 16 per cent to just four per cent after their penalty points reduction.
But with another PSR hearing on the way, that could swing back up again. In this most confusing of campaigns, the battle to avoid the drop could go to the final day of the season. And perhaps even beyond.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
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